Martin Armstrong’s Economic Pi Cycle

June 25, 2006 297 Comments

I have been doing a lot of work on economic cycles recently and have been unable to find any of Martin Armstrong’s articles on the internet.  Both the Martin Armstrong Defense Fund and his Princeton Economic Insitute are no longer accessible. 

Luckly, I saved a copy of his "The Business Cycle and the Future" article which was published on the Defense Fund web site.  I’m re-publishing the paper because I think it’s important enough for investors and traders to have ready access to it.  This article was written in September 1999 and identified September 2000 as a major turning point.  Both the S&P 500 and the NYSE made their final highs in that month.  In addition, Armstrong’s work identified November 2002 as a major bottom. 

Armstrong identified January 1st, 2005 as the last important turn date – the date which marked the high for the NASDAQ for the year.  The next turn date won’t come until 2/27/07.  Whether or not that means the market will remain weak until then is unclear, but it certainly wouldn’t come a surprise.  One important thing to remember in looking at all cycles is that the specific date is more important than whether the system identifies it as a high or a low cycle.  The same is true for Martin Armstrong’s cycle work.  Until we come closer to the next cycle point, it won’t be clear whether it will represent a top or a bottom in the markets and economy. 

The Business Cycle And the Future

By Martin A. Armstrong

Princeton Economic Institute
© Copyright September 26, 1999

Economic_confidence_model

For many years, I have pursued a field of study that is at best non-traditional. My discovery of a global business cycle during the early 1970’s was by no means intentional. As a youth growing up in the 1960’s, the atmosphere was anything but stable. I don’t really know if it was Hollywood that captivated my interest in history with an endless series of movies about Roman and Greek history, but whatever it was that drove me, I can only attest to what resulted.

My father had always wanted to return to Europe after serving under General Patton during the war. My mother insisted that she would go only when he could afford to take the whole family. That day finally came and something inside me insisted upon being able to earn my own spending money. I applied for a job despite my age of only 14. It wasn’t much, but on weekends I worked with a coin/bullion dealer. In those days, gold was illegal to buy or sell in bullion form so the industry centered on gold coins issued by Mexico, Hungary and Austria. I soon became familiar with the financial markets as they were starting to emerge. It was this experience that began to conflict with the formal training of school.

One day in a history class, the teacher brought in an old black and white film entitled "Toast of the Town." This film was about Jim Fisk and his attempt to corner the gold market in 1869 that created a major financial panic in which the term "Black Friday" was first coined. In the film was a very young support actor named Cary Grant who stood by the ticker tape machine reading off the latest gold prices. He read the tape and exclaimed that gold had just reached $162 an ounce. I knew from my job that gold was currently selling for $35. At first I thought that the price quote of $162 in the movie must be wrong. After all, Hollywood wasn’t known for truthfulness. Nonetheless, I was compelled to go to the library to check the newspapers of 1869 for myself. This first step in research left me stunned – the New York Times verified $162 was correct.

For the first time in my life, I was faced with a paradox that seemed to conflict with traditional concepts. How could gold be $162 in 1869 and yet be worth only $35 in the 1960’s? Surely, inflation was supposed to be linear. If a dollar was a lot of money in 1869, this meant that adjusted for inflation gold must have been the equivalent of several thousand dollars. If value was not linear, then was anything linear?

I began exploring the field of economics on my own and reading the various debates over the existance of a business cycle. Kondratieff was interesting for his vision of great waves of economic activity. Of course, others argued that such oscillations were purely random. Over the years that followed, this nagging question still bothered me. I had poured my heart and soul into history, quickly learning that all civilizations rose and fell and there seemed to be no exception.

I was still not yet convinced that a business cycle was actually definable. Kondratieff’s work was indeed interesting, but there was not enough data to say that it was in fact correct. On the other hand, it seemed that the random theory crowd was somehow threatened by the notion that the business cycle might be definable. After all, if the business cycle could be defined, then perhaps man’s intervention would not be successful. Clearly, there was a large degree of self-interest in discouraging any attempt to define the business cycle. I knew from my study of history that a non-professional German industrialist took Homer and set out to disprove the academics who argued that Homer was merely a story for children. In the end, that untrained believer in Homer discovered Troy and just about every other famous Greek city that was not supposed to have existed beyond fable.

I didn’t know how to go about such a quest to find if the business cycle was definable. Admittedly, I began with the very basic naive approach of simply adding up all the financial panics between 1683 and 1907 and dividing 224 years by the number of panics being 26 yielding 8.6 years. Well, this didn’t seem to be very valid at first, but it did allow for a greater amount of data to be tested compared to merely 3 waves described by Kondratieff.

The more I began to back test this 8.6-year average, the more accurate it seemed to be. I spent countless hours in libraries reading contemporary accounts of events around these dates. It soon became clear that there were issues of intensity and shifts in public confidence. During some periods, society seemed to distrust government and after a good boom bust cycle, sentiment shifted as people ran into the arms of government for solutions. Politics seemed to ebb and flow in harmony with the business cycle. Destroy an economy and someone like Hitler can rise to power very easily. If everyone is fat and happy, they will elect to ignore drastic change preferring not to rock the boat.

The issue of intensity seemed to revolve around periods of 51.6 years, which was in reality a group of 6 individual business cycles of 8.6 years in length. Back testing into ancient history seemed to reveal that the business cycle concept was alive and well during the Greek Empire as well as Rome and all others that followed. It was a natural step to see if one could project into the future and determine if its validity would still hold up. Using 1929.75 as a reference point, major and minor turning points could then be projected forward in time. For the most part, I merely observed and kept to myself this strange way of thinking. In 1976, one of these 8.6-year turning points was quickly approaching (1977.05). For the first time, I began to use this model expecting a significant turn in the economy back toward inflation. My friends thought I was mad. Everyone was talking about how another Great Depression was coming. The stock market had crashed by 50% and OPEC seemed to be undermining everything. I rolled the dice and stuck to it and to my amazement, inflation exploded right on cue as gold rallied from $103 to $875 by January 1980.

As my confidence in this model increased, I began to expand my research testing it against everything I could find. It became clear, that turning points were definable, but the wildcard would always remain as a combination of volatility and intensity. To solve that problem, much more sophisticated modeling became necessary.

As the 51.6-year turning point approached (1981.35), there was no doubt in my mind that the intensity would be monumental. Indeed, interest rates went crazy with prime reaching 22% and the discount rate being pushed up to 17%. The government was attacking inflation so hard, they moved into overkill causing a massive recession into the next half-cycle date of 1985.65. It was at this point in time that the Plaza Accord gave birth of the G5. I tried to warn the US government that manipulating the currency would set in motion a progressive trend toward higher volatility within the capital markets and the global business cycle as a whole. They ignored me and claimed that until someone else had such a model, they did not believe that volatility would be a concern.

The next quarter cycle turning point was arriving 1987.8 and the Crash of 1987 unfolded right on cue. It was at this time that a truly amazing development took place. The target date of 1987.8 was precisely October 19th, 1987 the day of the low. While individual models specifically based upon the stock market were successful in pinpointing the high and low days, I did not think for one moment that a business cycle that was derived from an average could pinpoint a precise day; it simply did not seem logical.

After 1987, I began to explore the possibility that coincidence should not be just assumed. I began researching this model even more with the possibility that precision, no matter how illogical, might possibly exist. I began viewing this business cycle not from a mere economic perspective, but from physics and math. If this business cycle were indeed real, then perhaps other fields of science would hold a clue to this mystery. Physics helped me understand the mechanism that would drive the business cycle but mathematics would perhaps answer the quantitative mystery. I soon began to understand that the circle is a perfect order. Clearly, major historical events that took place in conjunction with this model involved the forces of nature as well. If this business cycle was significant, surely it must encompass something more than the mere economic footprints of mankind throughout the ages.

The Mystery of 8.6

At first, 8.6 seemed to be a rather odd number that just didn’t fit mathematically. In trying to test the validity of October 19th, 1987 being precise or coincidence, I stumbled upon something I never expected. This is the first time I will reveal something that I discovered and kept secret for the last 13 years. The total number of days within an 8.6-year business cycle was 3141. In reality, the 8.6-year cycle was equal to p (Pi) * 1000. Suddenly, there was clearly more at work than mere coincidence. Through extending my studies into physics, it became obvious that randomness was not a possibility. The number of variables involved in projecting the future course of the business cycle was massive, but not completely impossible given sufficient computer power and a truly comprehensive database. The relationship of 8.6 to p (Pi) confirmed that indeed the business cycle was in fact a perfect natural cyclical phenomenon that warranted further investigation. Indeed, the precision to a day appeared numerous times around the world in different markets. Both the 1994.25 and the 1998.55 turning points also produced clear events precisely to the day. The probability of coincidence of so many targets being that precise to the day was well into the billions. Indeed, the relationship of p to the business cycle demonstrated the existence of a perfect cycle that returned to its point of origin where once again it would start anew. The complexity that arose was that while the cycle could be measured and predicted, precisely which sector of the global economy would become the focal point emerged as the new research challenge.

It was also clear that the driving forces behind the business cycle had shifted and intensified due to the introduction of the floating exchange rate system back in 1971. My study into intensity and volatility revealed that whenever the value of money became uncertain, inflation would rise dramatically as money ceased to be a store of wealth. Numerous periods of debasements and floating exchange rate systems had taken place throughout recorded history. The data available from Rome itself was a spectacular resource for determining hard rules as to how capital responded to standard economic events of debasement and inflation. The concept of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand was valid, but even on a much grander scale involving capital flow movement between competing economies. The overall intensity of the cycle was decisively enhanced creating greater waves as measured by amplitude by the floating exchange system. As currency values began to swing by 40% in 4-year intervals, the cycle intensified even further causing currency swings of 40% within 2-year intervals and finally down to a matter of months following the July 20th, 1998 turning point.

Economic_confidence_86_year_cycle

The Domino Effect

The events that followed 1987 were all too easy to foresee. The G5 talked the dollar down by 40% between 1985 and 1987 essentially telling foreign capital to get out. The Japanese obliged and their own capital contraction led to the next bubble top at the peak of the 8.6-year cycle that was now due 1989.95. As the Japanese took their money home for investment, the value of their currency rose as did their assets thereby attracting global investment as well. Everyone was there in Tokyo in late 1989. Just about every investment fund manager globally was touting the virtues of Japan. As the Japanese bubble peaked, capital had acquired a taste for foreign investment. That now savvy pool of international investment capital turned with an eye towards South East Asia. Right on cue, the capital shifted moving into South East Asia for the duration of the next half-cycle of 4.3 years until it too reached its point of maximum intensity going into 1994.25. At this point, international capital began to shift again turning back to the United States and Europe, thus causing the beginning of a new bull market in a similar manner to what had happened in Japan. In fact, 1994.25 was once again the precise day of the low on the S&P 500 for that year. As American and European investment returned home, the steady outflow of capital from South East Asia finally led to the Asian Crisis in 1997. In both cases, Japan and South East Asia blamed outsiders and sought to impose punitive measures to artificially support their markets. In Japan, these interventions have left the Postal Savings Fund insolvent as public money was used to support the JGB market. Financial institutions were encouraged to hide their losses and even employees from the Minister of Finance were installed in some cases engaging in loss postponing transactions of every kind. Major life companies were told not to hedge their risks for fear that this would make the markets decline even further. Thus, the demise of Japan that would have been complete by 1994 was extended by government intervention that has most likely resulted in a lengthening of the business cycle decline into 2002.85.

The next peak on the 8.6-year business cycle came in at 1998.55, which was precisely July 20th, 1998. While the intensity was defined rather well by the model’s forecast of 6,000 on the Dow by the quarter-cycle target of 1996.4 followed by 10,000 for 1998, the development of highly leveraged hedge funds created a trap that was not fully anticipated. It was clear that the European markets had captured the greatest intensity between 1996 and 1998 and that Russia too had reached our target for maximum intensity. However, the excessive leveraging of funds like Long-Term Capital Management had significantly created the peak in volume as well. Thus, the spread trades were so excessive, that the collapse that was to be expected, took on a virus type of affect. As Russia moved into default, and LTCM moved into default, the degree of leverage caused a cascade of liquidation that was spread around the world. Everything became affected causing the collapse in liquidity and credit to further undermine the global economy as a whole. Despite the new highs in US indices into 1999, the broader market has failed to keep pace and the peak in both liquidity and volume remains clearly that of 1998.55.

The Future

While this business cycle can be calculated on quarter-cycle intervals of 2.15 years into the final peak for this major wave formation of December 24th, 2032. Though this is long beyond my life expectancy, there is so much more behind the true understanding of the driving forces within the business cycle. I have learned that it is easy to claim coincidence and ignore the telltale signs of a hidden order. It is easy to argue that there is no basis for such a model without ever making an effort to test results. If everyone stopped with such criticism, most of ancient Greece would still be buried and Homer would still be considered a book for children. Man would not fly or travel to the moon. A cure for cancer would not be sought and progress would simply not exist. But furthering our understanding is part of humanity. Like law, that when strictly enforced deprives society of justice when circumstances are ignored, it is also the sin of ignorance toward new concepts that deprives mankind of progress and ultimately our posterity.

The Economic Confidence Model in 2.15-year intervals

1998.55… 07/20/98

2000.7…. 09/13/00

2002.85… 11/08/02

2005…. 01/02/05

2007.15… 02/27/07

2009.3… 04/23/09

2011.45… 06/18/11

2013.6… 08/12/13

2015.75… 10/07/15

2017.9… 12/01/17

2020.05… 01/26/20

2022.2… 03/22/22

2024.35… 05/16/24

2026.5… 07/11/26

2028.65… 09/04/28

2030.8… 10/30/30

2032.95… 12/24/32

In the next issue of the WCMR, the details of this business cycle will be expanded to provide a list of turning points down to the 8.6-month interval. There is a wealth of knowledge that lies ahead if we are not afraid to explore. Regularity of the business cycle does not mean that we lack free will. For it has taken me 30 years of observation to get this far. The peak for one nation may be the low for another. For within the scheme of global capital flows, not everyone can enjoy a boom simultaneously. For every gain in trade, there must be someone who loses. This is simply the nature of the global economy. The greatest booms unfold when capital concentrates in one sector. When that capital shifts, you also find the result of the greatest financial panics in history. An individual will always possess the free will to follow the crowd or strike out with his own independence to buck the trend. There will be those who believe in the business cycle and use it to their advantage just as there will be those who refuse to acknowledge its existence. As long as not everyone believes, the cycle will exist forever. The regularity of the business cycle is not determined by man alone; for within its deep calculations resides the very heart of nature itself. Like the Biblical forecast of Joseph that seven years of plenty will be followed by seven years of famine, understanding the nature of the business cycle can certainly enhance our ability to better manage our affairs rather than constantly add to the intensity of the cycle through our own error of intervention. For now, it is more likely that the politics will continue to act in the opposite direction of the cycle adding to its intensity and enhancing its volatility. Perhaps I have been an evangelist seeking to point out that the economy is like a rain forest – destroy one species and it will ripple through the entire system. The global economy to me is the same delicate system that cannot be viewed in isolation, but only through its collective integration. The failed labor policies of Europe have created perpetually high unemployment and the worst record of economic growth for the past 30 years. Instead of objectively reviewing what has happened, Europe seeks to federalize and strengthen the very controls that already exist. Communism and socialism are all political byproducts of our failure to understand the business cycle. Blaming the rich, your neighbor or a particular race are all vain quests to explain the cause of a cycle that has moved through the boom bust phase. Who knows, perhaps it is possible that if for one moment we truly understood the business cycle and worked in harmony with it, the possibility of reducing the amplitude just might result in a more stable political-economy for all mankind.

297 thoughts on “Martin Armstrong’s Economic Pi Cycle”

  1. Well, just a grain of salt here.

    If its supposed to reflect ‘pinpoint accuracy’ and then we make allowances after the fact that it still proves the theory, perhaps we are a little over extended on our assumptions.

    Just a fairly vicious circular argument between upholding the absolute price or having ‘perfect’ apprehension. In short, greed.

    Then we see that a self made man resorts to fraud in order to protect his carefully crafted image and his position in society, shows that anybody can be on the wrong side of the trade.

    As always, blame the unions & Europe when in doubt. Many have had recourse to that popular argument since the railway era. Perhaps the Wobblies had it in for him and drew up carefully crafted plans on their drawing boards while smoking pot. Like cackling, bearded elves.

    The true irony here is socialism for the rich and capitalism for the poor has a dark, ironic underside. The poor working class capitalists still have their freedom taking the subway to work while our protagonist, who was bailed out to the tune of $600m. by a parent corporation, sits at the very bottom of a cemented labyrinthine ‘midnight at noon’ socialist construct we call jail. Luckily, he is not bound to pay his jailers as the cost is borne by the state.

    A word of warning, as it was casually given to me when I was gabbling on about my own investments. Many of the ‘up to date’ theories on where inflation is going stem from the experience of the 70’s and are built on the premise we are seeing a repeat of the same.

  2. cycles are very simple and are always moving forward and backwards in time I have used them most of my life in trading the last 27 yrs now .and I see a great cycle in the world markets coming to a blowoff end sometime from 7/23/07 to 10/17 to 10/22 of 07 its will mark the end of free flow of funds across the world .if am right again we will see a world wide slow down as money flows stop and we see a top across the world

  4. I would like to say I have used cycles and can say that they are always working going forward and backwards I can see them as I have used them for the last 27 yrs of trading! They do work very well but it is and art ,one I have master over the last 27 yrs of trading they are right on and sometimes off just a bit based on larger cycles moving forwards and backwards .I see a major cycle in world markets coming to an end ,for the free flow of money . across the world market over the last almost 5 yrs we are now in the blowoff [second one] stage world wide I see the end of this cycle from 7/23/07 to 10/22/07 world wide from a free flow of moneys to and contraction cycle world wide the next cycles take us into lacking of free flow of funds across the world into 10/19/2010 the time of the babyboomers will be moving from stocks and other investments to more interest type safer so, as to have a neg affect on world markets as the price of homes and other inflation types money flow out of and the u.s dollar to begin a new bull market as a safe haven

  5. The thing that has been killing the market the past couple of weeks has been the credit and derivatives market namely financial sector concerns, but without a healthy financial sector the overall market can not flourish as it has the past number of years, hence the large sell offs and volatility… So what do this have to do with Martin Armstrong… take a look at the Financial Sector Index (XLF) it was 15 cents off of its current all time high in late February and actually the Financial Sector I-shares hit there all time high on Feb 20th… Look at the chart of either that’s what I would call a turn

  6. WE NOW CAN COUNT MAJOR WAVE 5 IN CRB TOP WE SEE THE BEGINNING OF THE BEAR MARKET IN THE CRB INTO 10/19/2010 AS FOR OUR LAST UPDATE ON THE WORLD MARKETS WE HAD POST ON 7/18/07 ABOUT A TOP FROM 7/23 TO 10 /22 . WE NOW CAN SEE THE DROP INTO TODAY LOW AS A 90% CHANCE AS BEING WAVE 4 IF WE HOLD AND RALLY TO NEW HIGHS WE SEE IT GOING TO 15694 FOR FINAL TOP DATES ARE MOVING INTO 10/22/07 INTO 3/10/08 AS ALT TIME WINDOW FROM MY GANN WORK AND FIB TIME WORK , BUT IF WE BREAK 12440 BY SEPT 11 OF 2007 WE WOULD BE IN THE CRASH FROM MY 1929 WORK THE WORLD MONEY SUPPIES ARE TURNING AS WE SAID AND THE DEFLATION CYCLES HAVE BEGUN

  8. Value Line (Geometric) made an all time high on 04/22/98 of 509.14 and came within a point at 508.96 on 7/13/07. where do Armstrong numbers come into play with this index, or do they? We know markets like double tops.
    NYSE top was also 07/13/07.
    Obviously we have a wave two bounce underway on a daily chart ( unless we make new mkt highs).
    IF the PI numbers are to work should they also work on other indexes?

  11. THE MARKET IS IN THE NEXT LEG UP WE STILL STAND BYOUR TAEGET OF 15694 INTO 3/08 TOP HOUSE IS IN THE EARLY STAGE OF IT DELINE AND WE THIS INTO 10/2010 ASIA IS IN THE BLOWOFF STAGE MAYBE WE TOP INTO 6320 AREA THEN THE NEXT DROP

  13. we are in the window of the majoj top in the world markets we see asai in the last week of the blowoff and all the world market if my work and models are right with my cycle work we should begin a major drop into early nov for the first leg down world wide we see this is the time to exit all stocks and gold and oil stocks . we are in august 87 in my models worldwide so if we are right we should drop into early nov and rally and crash worldwide into mid dec 07 and bottom in march 3/10 to 20 2008

  14. I have spoken recently with Marty and he has been saying for the past couple months that he believes the market will continue to go up in unison with the decline in the dollar and he sees gold going to 1500 by around 2010-2011… in short run aud to par, and gbp to 2.40, he was also saying cad to par but obviously that has happened already just wanted to get his recent forecasts out there because I’ve been seeing everything he’s been forecasting coming together but I want to make sure it’s writen down

  16. we are very close to an intermedate bottom in all brokers and back as of this writing we see fed lowering again next week and the market rally to begin into the next and last leg in our work as we have said this past summer we would be in a world wide contraction of money suppy in the window of june and oct 22 of 07 this will be the last easy for this cycle the us dollar is about to bottom inthe next 3 to 5 weeks gold is in the topping phase and oil worldwide is in the last week or so of a major top we see our cycles topping in oil and all inflation to a neg growth worldwide asia and south brazil in the last days of a major long term top buy short term paper now on all long term assets

  19. Thanks to Mr. Martin for all the hard work and I pray for him to become free. I believe in his Econ Conf Model but I need some help calculate the future date.

    2002.85 is 11-6-02 as to 11-8-02 (I’m 2 days off)
    2013.6 is 8-7-13 as to 8-12-13 (I’m 5 days off)
    2026.5 is 7-1/2-26 as to 7-11-26 (I’m 10 days off). Since .5 is exactly half year, shouldn’t it be 7-1-26?

    Here’s how I did it.
    Leap Yr 2000.7 = .7*366=256.2-243=13.2 is Sep 13. 243days till end of Aug.
    Non-Leap 2002.85 = .85*365=310.25-304=6.25 is Nov 6. Table lists 11-8-02.

    What did I miss? Please suggest me the proper way of calculating. Does the time interval span needs to be pushed ahead if it fall on the weekend or holiday? If yes, then will it offset all the future dates as well? If you have a table with future dates calculated then it will be much appreciated. Thanks in advance.

  20. next cycle turn is nov 8/9 if we hold 1470/1448 cash sp we must then turn and rally to new record highs over the next 5 weeks if the bull market is still in tact for 15640 target if it is to be . if we break below the cyclces have topped and the next bear leg is down into 10/9/2010 cycle low housing is just strating its decline in price ,but mer and cit bear cycles are coming to and end

  24. What do you think now Bill we broke 1440, is this bear market conformation or would you rather hold out on that till you see a dow theory seel signal @DJIA 13850. What exactly do Martin’s confidence cycles say in this regard.

  25. WE ARE TURNING TO THE UPSIDE THE HOME BUILDERS ARE GOING TO DROP PRICES FAST AND THE WORLD BANKS ARE ABOUT TO INFLATE HUGE IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS TO KEEP THE WORLD MARKETS FROM A HUGE DEFLATION GLOD GOING TO 860 880 VERY SOON AND OIL STILL GETTING TO OUT TARGET 103 TO 106 I SEE THE DJT HOLDING MY SUPPORT OF 4410 TO 4386 WILL HOLD AND TURN UP STILL SEE A RECORD HIGH IN DOW AND SP INTO EARLY JAN AND THEN ???

  26. Today Nov 21 is one of Marty’s target dates on his 8.4 monthly cycle, yesterday it seemed to me that the market was ignoring a lot of bad news… this could become the theme of the next couple months

  27. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/bloom060904.html

    Unfortunately, precisely on November 19th 2007 (according to the Mayan Calendar) forces will kick in which will cause the economic infrastructure to start unravelling. It is on that day (according to Calleman’s interpretation) that the collapse of the financial infrastructure will manifest.

    It would appear that a convergenge of believe system seem to be playing out. The message above is clear. I will reiterate my question now that we have Dow Theory confirmation.

    and
    Today Nov 21 is one of Marty’s target dates on his 8.4 monthly cycle

    to which direction up or down does Marty’s cycle predict. We are seriously oversold here. But if things are now just starting to unravel ???

    Please CFR Bill

  29. well it looks like the abc down for the correction is in looking now for 1675 into mid march at min aaii 3 week avg is 51 highest since 10/2002 low hold on to your hats folks here comes my blowoff to the upside buy anything in material s stocks pot asia bhp pcu ba everything banks like c cit mer everyone of them world markets bottomed gold still looking at 860 to 880 and oil has an outside of 103 to 106 then oil drop s and trans rip to up side the large part of traders have beeen emailing me about a dow theory sell i use it as a dow buy in my work no top in us or world market has the top come with everyone bearish so i see the bull taking off huge from here into the top 96 to 105 days from now for my top

  30. this is wavetimer i keep posting and it puts someone else name in for my name i use wavetimer or bill i just posted and we are in the next bull market wave to the upside into my mid march top

  31. Are you blind? Take the dates of the ‘turning points” shown at the beginning of the article and map it to any of the major indexes, domestic or international. Neither one exibits behavior that supposed to be poredicted by these dates. Or, even simpler, interlace the graphical plot of the ‘global business cycle’ with that of ,say, S&P or Dow. Do you see any correlation? I don’t. Not that Armstrong himself is saying that it would. At least in this article he is not stating that his cycles represent stock market cycles but rather some ‘economical confidence’ or business state cycles. Assuming that theory is correct (and I think it has some basis, though not exaclty as it is presented) it is not predicting the stock market behavior as latter is not necessarily correlates with true economic situations (simlifying, we know that when stocks of particular company go down it is not necessarily reflects a bad financial or businiess condition of this company, but rather reaction of the flock of scared to death everage stock holders who know or understand nothing of what ideed is going on with their company or economy as a whole).

    Also, connection with physics? What connection? It’s not even mathematics, more like high school arithmetics. Mystical involvment of number P? Sounds like a lot of bull.. for attracting idiots. Again, that is not to say there are no cycles or certain truths in this theory.

  32. AS MANY HAVE READ MY POSTS OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS CALLING THIS RALLY AND TO RECORDS HIGH S BUT AS OF TONITE I HAVE TURNED TO A MAJOR BEAR I CAN SEE A EWAVE COUNT HERE INTO MON AS A MAJOR CORRECTION TO THE UP SIDE ENDING NOW I CAN NOW SAY I SEE A MAJOR CRASH INTO 1/3/08 AND NOT BOTTOM UNTILL MAR 10 TO 21 2008 THE WAVE OF MAJOR DEFLATION LOOKS TO HAVE STARTED I SHORTED AAPL TODAY INTO 193.25 MIT BASED ON LONG PUTS WE COULD STILL GET AS HIGH AS 198 TO 204 BUT IT OPENED THE BIGGEST STORE INIT HISTORY TODAY IN NYC HERE AND I SEE IT IN ITS BLOWOFF TOP THE SP HITTING MY TARGETS OF 1512 TO 1524 AS MAJOR RES AND DTJ IS RALLYING INTO 5050 AREA IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A ABC UP I WAS VERY BULLISH AT THE LOWS AND RODE THIS UP TODAY I AM LOOKING NOW FOR A CRASH WAVE TO START IF YOU ARE LONG RAISE STOP VERY TIGHT AND SELL SHORT OR BUY PUTS ON MON OPEN IF WE BREAK 1444 AGAIN THE BEAR MARKET IS CONFIRMED MY VERY BEST TO ALL

  33. the above post is wrote by wavetime and not vdm thank you please fix signed bill signorile of wavetimer

  35. thank you to all as i see the wave structure we stoped at my 1524 this is the line in the sand for the bull if we get above it , it will be clean and green for 1650 1685 now blowoff top into 3/08 timing , but right now sp is going to be in a abc down for wave 2 down we will takeoff by 12/17 to 12/18 next fib cycle low i see the libro rate to top and drop this will help the world markets to blowoff , but i must also show that 1524 was the alt top and if we now break 1428 cash we will crash into 1/3 08 cycle low in the area of 1335 to 1356 on or about stay away from banks till 1/3 08 based on the tax loss selling in this sector scale into this stocks 20 % at a time into new lows on banks and brokers the BEAR MARKET IN HOUSINGWILL NOT BOTTOM UNTIL MID 2009 TO PERFCT TIME IS MID OCT IN 2010 AVG LOSS IS GOING TO BE 17 TO 23 % BUT IN FLA AND NM AND CA MI CLOSER TO 27 TO 34% THIS BASED ON HOUSING CYCLES GOING BACK TO 1907 THANK YOU ALL FOR THEOVER 1200 EMAILS STAY AWAY FROM GOLD SELL ANY OF IT YOU OWN INTO THESE RALLY IT WILL BE GOING BACK TO 250 INTO 2010 BEST TO ALL BILL SIGNORILE AKA WAVETIMER

  36. sell all utility stocks at the market sell pot and all railroads stock stay away from the banks and brokers till 1/3 08 please

  37. Sell Gold!!!! you have got to be kidding!!! Armstrong is calling for a gold bull market into 2011. He has always been calling for a future currency crisis which is what we are in right now. Sell Gold! Amazing!

  38. >>>Sell Gold! Amazing!

    Not really, being that the US has exported a large percentage of its bad paper, systemic credit contraction has gone global, confidence in new fiat (EU) could take a back seat to the player with the biggest stick, (US Military) causing a short term surge in the dollar. Competative currency devaluation is now being orchastrated by the G7 nations, but it may not work. In order to inflate, banks, consumers, the world population at large needs to be willing to lend and borrow. Credit is already at the saturation point; can not be serviced until some equilibrium condition occurs. A deflationary spiral is likely. “Everything” deflates initially. Short term this could reverse the gold run. Betting on a ramp here is like betting against the richest forces of the globalization empire. If the financial system completely collapses in this deflation then “to the moon Alice for Gold”. Of course then you’ll propably be lookin for some lead. Everyone’s counting on another bout of re-inflation to the point of hyper-inflation for this gold run, but government employment is also saturated how you gonna get the new money into fresh hands with no way to service the debt.

    I’m sure posters here will disagree I’d like to hear why.
    The link posted by Tom, the time graduations are equidistant yet highcycle demarcations are back to back twice???

    Again where does the “confidence cycle” point? confidence seems to be trending down currently on the street.

  39. Every currency in the world is fiat. This is the first time in history that this situation has existed. The total world supply of money is approximately 150 TRILLION. The total supply of derivates is approximately 600 TRILLION. Sell Gold at your peril. I used to listen to Marty A on the radio about 2-3 times a year. He was always fearful of a coming currency crisis. That time is now. He believed that gold would go bananas during that time. Buy on dips and accumulate. No one I know has any idea where to buy gold or thinks it’s worth buying. We are far, far from a top.

  40. While were buying on the dips for gold don’t forget about silver, and silver junior stocks this year. It goes along for the ride.Not only that but what you could buy a few yrs ago for 4-5 oz is now well the physical lucky to get silver eagles for 18.
    It has more than tripled its value even better than gold average. It is also used more than gold, computers cameras, medicine, which means is can be depleted..whats in the ground verses demand.
    Something to think about. Nice presents for the kids, grand-kids, a form of money they might even try to hold on to, till they really need it.

  41. first armstrong is in jail because he is a fake second i have been on the money on the market for most of thsi year i am telling you ro get out gold we are just bottoming in the us $ and startinng a major rally for the next 3 years and gold is going to crash back and oil also into mid 2010 if you are telling people to buy gold its becasue you are making money off of it i have help 1000, s of people here and it was always free i have made more money and cant take a dime with me into the next life so folks i am telling now to sellyour gold into this rally while you can oil is gold and gold is oil inother words inflation $$$$ and so was housing we are entering i massive wave of deflation and that gold is going back under 250 by late 2010 and oil is topping and so is every base metal in the world its my life i was once one of the world biggest traders in them and i am old and and help the people who dont know want to due so sell all the gold you can while the suckers you are trying to sell it to you before you cant

  42. First of all have you heard of Hubbards peak? Second of all Armstrong is in jail beccause he refused to give the CIA his computer models. Third of all I don’t sell gold so I don’t have a vested interest if anyone buys it or not. If you think the world’s central banks are going to let a massive deflation occur with 500 TRILLON of derivates then you are very niave. Fourth and last, how in HELL is the dollar going to rally when the fundamemtals of the dollar are so bad. Has the US begun to reduce it’s debt? A chart of enron looks better than the US dollar. Sell all the gold you want, I’ll buy it!!!

  43. platinum is ready to rally in its last rally and gold will give most of you the chance to get out of all your metals but metal stocks are toppin out before the metals will usa stock market is holding a major support today into my cycle turn and the tax loss selling is starting to dry up on the banking and broker here today we should start to see a rally in these stocks about .236 to .33 of the drop into next year but we need to watch for the major turn date of 1/7/08 +- 3 days this is a major turn from the low of 02 hAVE A GOOD AND HAPPY NEW YEAR FROM WAVETIMER

  44. So, looking back at 2007 and the now famous blip started on the 27 feb 2007, did something major really happened ? Doesn’t seem to me as a major turning point in any market. From gold,bonds, currencies to stocks etc..that date won’t be remembered.

  46. gold looks like we ready to take its last rally into the fial top ad us$has bottomed as my work called for stocks are ready for the nextleg up

  48. I agree with your short term assessment of gold, it seems to be breaking out of its symmetrical triangle should bring it up to about 880… long term however i think theres much more room to run… as far as the dollar goes hopefully your ability to notice a changing trend in currencies is on par with your ability to notice trends in where your blog entries will post… and so a long awaited FYI…. YOUR POST JUST LIKE EVERYONE ELSES POST ON THIS BLOG WILL APPEAR ABOVE YOUR NAME DON’T LET THAT LINE THROW YOU OFF

  49. major crash in us stock about to start intomy 1/7 08 low gold in the blowoff into my 880 910 would sell out of all gold into this blowoff

  50. morning to all gold is enetering the window and price of a major top i have post about 1/3 to 1/7 with the 7 of jan of 2008 as beinga date of major trend changes i have a target on oil to top 103 to 106 for the top of this inflation cyclein oil gold and all commodity acrossthe board worldwide us stcok market sp cash should also bottom on 1/7 as a major low in djt aka airline and we should have a major rally in banks and brokers into mid feb 30 to 45 % this will be a major top in gold for another 5 years we are about to enter a massive bear market in gold into 10/2010 low

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