I have been doing a lot of work on economic cycles recently and have been unable to find any of Martin Armstrong’s articles on the internet. Both the Martin Armstrong Defense Fund and his Princeton Economic Insitute are no longer accessible.
Luckly, I saved a copy of his "The Business Cycle and the Future" article which was published on the Defense Fund web site. I’m re-publishing the paper because I think it’s important enough for investors and traders to have ready access to it. This article was written in September 1999 and identified September 2000 as a major turning point. Both the S&P 500 and the NYSE made their final highs in that month. In addition, Armstrong’s work identified November 2002 as a major bottom.
Armstrong identified January 1st, 2005 as the last important turn date – the date which marked the high for the NASDAQ for the year. The next turn date won’t come until 2/27/07. Whether or not that means the market will remain weak until then is unclear, but it certainly wouldn’t come a surprise. One important thing to remember in looking at all cycles is that the specific date is more important than whether the system identifies it as a high or a low cycle. The same is true for Martin Armstrong’s cycle work. Until we come closer to the next cycle point, it won’t be clear whether it will represent a top or a bottom in the markets and economy.
The Business Cycle And the Future
By Martin A. Armstrong
Princeton Economic Institute
© Copyright September 26, 1999
For many years, I have pursued a field of study that is at best non-traditional. My discovery of a global business cycle during the early 1970’s was by no means intentional. As a youth growing up in the 1960’s, the atmosphere was anything but stable. I don’t really know if it was Hollywood that captivated my interest in history with an endless series of movies about Roman and Greek history, but whatever it was that drove me, I can only attest to what resulted.
My father had always wanted to return to Europe after serving under General Patton during the war. My mother insisted that she would go only when he could afford to take the whole family. That day finally came and something inside me insisted upon being able to earn my own spending money. I applied for a job despite my age of only 14. It wasn’t much, but on weekends I worked with a coin/bullion dealer. In those days, gold was illegal to buy or sell in bullion form so the industry centered on gold coins issued by Mexico, Hungary and Austria. I soon became familiar with the financial markets as they were starting to emerge. It was this experience that began to conflict with the formal training of school.
One day in a history class, the teacher brought in an old black and white film entitled "Toast of the Town." This film was about Jim Fisk and his attempt to corner the gold market in 1869 that created a major financial panic in which the term "Black Friday" was first coined. In the film was a very young support actor named Cary Grant who stood by the ticker tape machine reading off the latest gold prices. He read the tape and exclaimed that gold had just reached $162 an ounce. I knew from my job that gold was currently selling for $35. At first I thought that the price quote of $162 in the movie must be wrong. After all, Hollywood wasn’t known for truthfulness. Nonetheless, I was compelled to go to the library to check the newspapers of 1869 for myself. This first step in research left me stunned – the New York Times verified $162 was correct.
For the first time in my life, I was faced with a paradox that seemed to conflict with traditional concepts. How could gold be $162 in 1869 and yet be worth only $35 in the 1960’s? Surely, inflation was supposed to be linear. If a dollar was a lot of money in 1869, this meant that adjusted for inflation gold must have been the equivalent of several thousand dollars. If value was not linear, then was anything linear?
I began exploring the field of economics on my own and reading the various debates over the existance of a business cycle. Kondratieff was interesting for his vision of great waves of economic activity. Of course, others argued that such oscillations were purely random. Over the years that followed, this nagging question still bothered me. I had poured my heart and soul into history, quickly learning that all civilizations rose and fell and there seemed to be no exception.
I was still not yet convinced that a business cycle was actually definable. Kondratieff’s work was indeed interesting, but there was not enough data to say that it was in fact correct. On the other hand, it seemed that the random theory crowd was somehow threatened by the notion that the business cycle might be definable. After all, if the business cycle could be defined, then perhaps man’s intervention would not be successful. Clearly, there was a large degree of self-interest in discouraging any attempt to define the business cycle. I knew from my study of history that a non-professional German industrialist took Homer and set out to disprove the academics who argued that Homer was merely a story for children. In the end, that untrained believer in Homer discovered Troy and just about every other famous Greek city that was not supposed to have existed beyond fable.
I didn’t know how to go about such a quest to find if the business cycle was definable. Admittedly, I began with the very basic naive approach of simply adding up all the financial panics between 1683 and 1907 and dividing 224 years by the number of panics being 26 yielding 8.6 years. Well, this didn’t seem to be very valid at first, but it did allow for a greater amount of data to be tested compared to merely 3 waves described by Kondratieff.
The more I began to back test this 8.6-year average, the more accurate it seemed to be. I spent countless hours in libraries reading contemporary accounts of events around these dates. It soon became clear that there were issues of intensity and shifts in public confidence. During some periods, society seemed to distrust government and after a good boom bust cycle, sentiment shifted as people ran into the arms of government for solutions. Politics seemed to ebb and flow in harmony with the business cycle. Destroy an economy and someone like Hitler can rise to power very easily. If everyone is fat and happy, they will elect to ignore drastic change preferring not to rock the boat.
The issue of intensity seemed to revolve around periods of 51.6 years, which was in reality a group of 6 individual business cycles of 8.6 years in length. Back testing into ancient history seemed to reveal that the business cycle concept was alive and well during the Greek Empire as well as Rome and all others that followed. It was a natural step to see if one could project into the future and determine if its validity would still hold up. Using 1929.75 as a reference point, major and minor turning points could then be projected forward in time. For the most part, I merely observed and kept to myself this strange way of thinking. In 1976, one of these 8.6-year turning points was quickly approaching (1977.05). For the first time, I began to use this model expecting a significant turn in the economy back toward inflation. My friends thought I was mad. Everyone was talking about how another Great Depression was coming. The stock market had crashed by 50% and OPEC seemed to be undermining everything. I rolled the dice and stuck to it and to my amazement, inflation exploded right on cue as gold rallied from $103 to $875 by January 1980.
As my confidence in this model increased, I began to expand my research testing it against everything I could find. It became clear, that turning points were definable, but the wildcard would always remain as a combination of volatility and intensity. To solve that problem, much more sophisticated modeling became necessary.
As the 51.6-year turning point approached (1981.35), there was no doubt in my mind that the intensity would be monumental. Indeed, interest rates went crazy with prime reaching 22% and the discount rate being pushed up to 17%. The government was attacking inflation so hard, they moved into overkill causing a massive recession into the next half-cycle date of 1985.65. It was at this point in time that the Plaza Accord gave birth of the G5. I tried to warn the US government that manipulating the currency would set in motion a progressive trend toward higher volatility within the capital markets and the global business cycle as a whole. They ignored me and claimed that until someone else had such a model, they did not believe that volatility would be a concern.
The next quarter cycle turning point was arriving 1987.8 and the Crash of 1987 unfolded right on cue. It was at this time that a truly amazing development took place. The target date of 1987.8 was precisely October 19th, 1987 the day of the low. While individual models specifically based upon the stock market were successful in pinpointing the high and low days, I did not think for one moment that a business cycle that was derived from an average could pinpoint a precise day; it simply did not seem logical.
After 1987, I began to explore the possibility that coincidence should not be just assumed. I began researching this model even more with the possibility that precision, no matter how illogical, might possibly exist. I began viewing this business cycle not from a mere economic perspective, but from physics and math. If this business cycle were indeed real, then perhaps other fields of science would hold a clue to this mystery. Physics helped me understand the mechanism that would drive the business cycle but mathematics would perhaps answer the quantitative mystery. I soon began to understand that the circle is a perfect order. Clearly, major historical events that took place in conjunction with this model involved the forces of nature as well. If this business cycle was significant, surely it must encompass something more than the mere economic footprints of mankind throughout the ages.
The Mystery of 8.6
At first, 8.6 seemed to be a rather odd number that just didn’t fit mathematically. In trying to test the validity of October 19th, 1987 being precise or coincidence, I stumbled upon something I never expected. This is the first time I will reveal something that I discovered and kept secret for the last 13 years. The total number of days within an 8.6-year business cycle was 3141. In reality, the 8.6-year cycle was equal to p (Pi) * 1000. Suddenly, there was clearly more at work than mere coincidence. Through extending my studies into physics, it became obvious that randomness was not a possibility. The number of variables involved in projecting the future course of the business cycle was massive, but not completely impossible given sufficient computer power and a truly comprehensive database. The relationship of 8.6 to p (Pi) confirmed that indeed the business cycle was in fact a perfect natural cyclical phenomenon that warranted further investigation. Indeed, the precision to a day appeared numerous times around the world in different markets. Both the 1994.25 and the 1998.55 turning points also produced clear events precisely to the day. The probability of coincidence of so many targets being that precise to the day was well into the billions. Indeed, the relationship of p to the business cycle demonstrated the existence of a perfect cycle that returned to its point of origin where once again it would start anew. The complexity that arose was that while the cycle could be measured and predicted, precisely which sector of the global economy would become the focal point emerged as the new research challenge.
It was also clear that the driving forces behind the business cycle had shifted and intensified due to the introduction of the floating exchange rate system back in 1971. My study into intensity and volatility revealed that whenever the value of money became uncertain, inflation would rise dramatically as money ceased to be a store of wealth. Numerous periods of debasements and floating exchange rate systems had taken place throughout recorded history. The data available from Rome itself was a spectacular resource for determining hard rules as to how capital responded to standard economic events of debasement and inflation. The concept of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand was valid, but even on a much grander scale involving capital flow movement between competing economies. The overall intensity of the cycle was decisively enhanced creating greater waves as measured by amplitude by the floating exchange system. As currency values began to swing by 40% in 4-year intervals, the cycle intensified even further causing currency swings of 40% within 2-year intervals and finally down to a matter of months following the July 20th, 1998 turning point.
The Domino Effect
The events that followed 1987 were all too easy to foresee. The G5 talked the dollar down by 40% between 1985 and 1987 essentially telling foreign capital to get out. The Japanese obliged and their own capital contraction led to the next bubble top at the peak of the 8.6-year cycle that was now due 1989.95. As the Japanese took their money home for investment, the value of their currency rose as did their assets thereby attracting global investment as well. Everyone was there in Tokyo in late 1989. Just about every investment fund manager globally was touting the virtues of Japan. As the Japanese bubble peaked, capital had acquired a taste for foreign investment. That now savvy pool of international investment capital turned with an eye towards South East Asia. Right on cue, the capital shifted moving into South East Asia for the duration of the next half-cycle of 4.3 years until it too reached its point of maximum intensity going into 1994.25. At this point, international capital began to shift again turning back to the United States and Europe, thus causing the beginning of a new bull market in a similar manner to what had happened in Japan. In fact, 1994.25 was once again the precise day of the low on the S&P 500 for that year. As American and European investment returned home, the steady outflow of capital from South East Asia finally led to the Asian Crisis in 1997. In both cases, Japan and South East Asia blamed outsiders and sought to impose punitive measures to artificially support their markets. In Japan, these interventions have left the Postal Savings Fund insolvent as public money was used to support the JGB market. Financial institutions were encouraged to hide their losses and even employees from the Minister of Finance were installed in some cases engaging in loss postponing transactions of every kind. Major life companies were told not to hedge their risks for fear that this would make the markets decline even further. Thus, the demise of Japan that would have been complete by 1994 was extended by government intervention that has most likely resulted in a lengthening of the business cycle decline into 2002.85.
The next peak on the 8.6-year business cycle came in at 1998.55, which was precisely July 20th, 1998. While the intensity was defined rather well by the model’s forecast of 6,000 on the Dow by the quarter-cycle target of 1996.4 followed by 10,000 for 1998, the development of highly leveraged hedge funds created a trap that was not fully anticipated. It was clear that the European markets had captured the greatest intensity between 1996 and 1998 and that Russia too had reached our target for maximum intensity. However, the excessive leveraging of funds like Long-Term Capital Management had significantly created the peak in volume as well. Thus, the spread trades were so excessive, that the collapse that was to be expected, took on a virus type of affect. As Russia moved into default, and LTCM moved into default, the degree of leverage caused a cascade of liquidation that was spread around the world. Everything became affected causing the collapse in liquidity and credit to further undermine the global economy as a whole. Despite the new highs in US indices into 1999, the broader market has failed to keep pace and the peak in both liquidity and volume remains clearly that of 1998.55.
The Future
While this business cycle can be calculated on quarter-cycle intervals of 2.15 years into the final peak for this major wave formation of December 24th, 2032. Though this is long beyond my life expectancy, there is so much more behind the true understanding of the driving forces within the business cycle. I have learned that it is easy to claim coincidence and ignore the telltale signs of a hidden order. It is easy to argue that there is no basis for such a model without ever making an effort to test results. If everyone stopped with such criticism, most of ancient Greece would still be buried and Homer would still be considered a book for children. Man would not fly or travel to the moon. A cure for cancer would not be sought and progress would simply not exist. But furthering our understanding is part of humanity. Like law, that when strictly enforced deprives society of justice when circumstances are ignored, it is also the sin of ignorance toward new concepts that deprives mankind of progress and ultimately our posterity.
The Economic Confidence Model in 2.15-year intervals
|
1998.55… 07/20/98 |
|
2000.7…. 09/13/00 |
|
2002.85… 11/08/02 |
|
2005…. 01/02/05 |
|
2007.15… 02/27/07 |
|
2009.3… 04/23/09 |
|
2011.45… 06/18/11 |
|
2013.6… 08/12/13 |
|
2015.75… 10/07/15 |
|
2017.9… 12/01/17 |
|
2020.05… 01/26/20 |
|
2022.2… 03/22/22 |
|
2024.35… 05/16/24 |
|
2026.5… 07/11/26 |
|
2028.65… 09/04/28 |
|
2030.8… 10/30/30 |
|
2032.95… 12/24/32 |
In the next issue of the WCMR, the details of this business cycle will be expanded to provide a list of turning points down to the 8.6-month interval. There is a wealth of knowledge that lies ahead if we are not afraid to explore. Regularity of the business cycle does not mean that we lack free will. For it has taken me 30 years of observation to get this far. The peak for one nation may be the low for another. For within the scheme of global capital flows, not everyone can enjoy a boom simultaneously. For every gain in trade, there must be someone who loses. This is simply the nature of the global economy. The greatest booms unfold when capital concentrates in one sector. When that capital shifts, you also find the result of the greatest financial panics in history. An individual will always possess the free will to follow the crowd or strike out with his own independence to buck the trend. There will be those who believe in the business cycle and use it to their advantage just as there will be those who refuse to acknowledge its existence. As long as not everyone believes, the cycle will exist forever. The regularity of the business cycle is not determined by man alone; for within its deep calculations resides the very heart of nature itself. Like the Biblical forecast of Joseph that seven years of plenty will be followed by seven years of famine, understanding the nature of the business cycle can certainly enhance our ability to better manage our affairs rather than constantly add to the intensity of the cycle through our own error of intervention. For now, it is more likely that the politics will continue to act in the opposite direction of the cycle adding to its intensity and enhancing its volatility. Perhaps I have been an evangelist seeking to point out that the economy is like a rain forest – destroy one species and it will ripple through the entire system. The global economy to me is the same delicate system that cannot be viewed in isolation, but only through its collective integration. The failed labor policies of Europe have created perpetually high unemployment and the worst record of economic growth for the past 30 years. Instead of objectively reviewing what has happened, Europe seeks to federalize and strengthen the very controls that already exist. Communism and socialism are all political byproducts of our failure to understand the business cycle. Blaming the rich, your neighbor or a particular race are all vain quests to explain the cause of a cycle that has moved through the boom bust phase. Who knows, perhaps it is possible that if for one moment we truly understood the business cycle and worked in harmony with it, the possibility of reducing the amplitude just might result in a more stable political-economy for all mankind.
Will March 22, 2008 be a signicant event in the world financial markets as was Feb. 27, 2007? Yes, it will. But not necessarily because Martin Armstrong’s Business Cycle can predict these events, it will happen because of human activity reacting to the possibility that he may have it right. Many now believe they should be financially prepared for the next significant date. Many will act accordingly and infuence the markets. Thus, we can predict the future, and we can profit from it! Good Luck.
Yep, that explains it perfectly. 1 billion “asians” got together on Monday and calmly discussed how to mess up the US economy; also as a supporter of many liberal platforms I believe I received the newsletter from them highlighting they would be attempting this.
On a subject that isnt hypocritically so childish, I think it is very possible economic cycles can exist on atleast monthly accurate levels. At a certain saturation point when everyone jumps in, the smartest people start getting out with their profits before the logical non-perceived economic catalyst occurs which leads to a loss in confidence and a watershed change in view. It’s not an impossible leap to believe that a time cycle can be associated to this; a natural human cycle of higher risk versus lower risk or priority. An individual stocks price is all assumed valuation, no stock is priced at the true value of the company. So perception and emotion is everything in this valuation.
The theory that governments or investors themselves would be willing to risk their own money to follow an impossible to prove cycle gives them way too much credit for risk. Perhaps the Chinese governments decision on Tuesday was working just as this cycle says it would when government attempted to control excessive profit from a perceived hot market that reached its hottest, inadvertantly having the effect of taking away the very appeal of that market and therefore its profitable perception.
I just did a function with a zero base, i think you guys are in the archaic 1 base math, 0 is a number and is the first number jan 1 being 0, a year having 0-365 days, fitting that from 0-1 and the number i get for feb 27th, th 58th day of the year is .15. whoever is saying it’s off by a few days should go back to algebra, how can you play in the stock market and don’t understand college level math?
3db
Umm… You really shouldn’t go around accusing people of not knowing “college level” math when you don’t have a grasp of elementary level math… If you decide to use 0 as an integer and count it, than 0-365 is a total of 366 days. For a non-leap year, if you count January 1 as day “0”, then December 31st would be day 364. To wrap your head around the concept, count from 0 to 10 using your fingers. You’ll notice that it would take 11 fingers if you include 0 as a number. So, you’re wrong. There’s certainly no algebra involved as you suggested, and you seem to be confused by the word “base”. We generally use a base 10 system that has the numbers 0-9. However, we often choose to count starting at 1 and go to 10. The base has not changed at all, simply the ordinal system. There’s no “archaic” system that others are using that you are brilliantly circumventing.
And my 2 cents… all a load of crap without any real proof. You can make a connection to any number of coincidences if you try hard enough… Although as others have said on the board, if enough people buy in the dates become a self-fulfilling prophecy. You can definitely make a profit at the expense of the chumps that believe it.
Thank you VTAlumni. You are correct. The guy with the math problem really doesn’t understand. At first glance, it does look like the peak should have been on Feb 24, not Feb 27 based on simple math. Simple “1st Grade” math that is, and I must admit, I fell for it too. After closer examination, it is about total number of days, and the rounded percentages that get you there, along with the fact that there is an extra day every fourth year. If you simply count the days, and understand some basic math concepts, it works. Can it predict every future event? No, but the cycle makes sense, and every sharp economist should agree that the cycles are real, whether you buy the exact number of days or not.
Let’s leap forward for a change and understand that this is smart, unique thinking. A lost art in today’s video game, cell phone, everything-in-an-instant world.
Egads! I refreshed my browser right after my post and “mathwiz44” also bought into 3dbeing’s totally incorrect explanation.. And he also accuses people of not knowing “1st grade math” when he doesn’t see the huge flaw in 3dbeings “logic”. Please, please, people: if you don’t the slightest mathematical inclination, please do not belittle others math skills while posting your absurd errors on the internet as a record for the world to see.
End of my completely-unrelated-to-the-original-blog-post rant.
This chump made 20k in one day with an initial investment of 5 how did u fair jonny boy… and a connection to any number of coincidences, it’s not like he came up with this yesterday to fit around 2/27/07 or 11/8/03 or 7/20/98, infact he’s been in jail for 2 of them and this was formulated 20 years ago, and as other people have pointed out this isn’t the exact date the markets will react but if all you do is buy and sell on his major turn dates you would be doing quite well… and as far as it being a self-fulfilling prophecy there isn’t close to enough people that know or care about this for that to be the case, and even some people such as you who do know about choose to not believe it… so what i’m getting at is as long as there are people like you out there this system will be profitable and hold true… thanks for those puts my friend and good night to you
You guys should all buy real estate instead. Far less volatile dontcha think?
Thank you all for your comments on this post! My thoughts on the pi cycle are updated here.
https://contrahour.com/contrahour/2007/03/free_martin_arm.html
the balance is slightly off.To bring it back all have to seat down and understand the daily basic isn’t the same anymore.The flow can’t be control like before and all financial institutions must ease their requirements to bring new investors to the table.Most investors are looking away from home .
February 16, 2007 Friday
NYT
Late Edition – Final
SECTION: Section A; Column 3; Business/Financial Desk; Pg. 1
LENGTH: 2070 words
HEADLINE: In Fraud Case, 7 Years in Jail For Contempt
BYLINE: By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
ray, you’ve identified yourself as a liberal and it shows in the oversimplified and sarcastic assessment you made of my comments. i was a dyed-in-the-wool-liberal for more than 20 years and supported causes that had great potential to bring about lasting change in the lives of those with little advantages – BUT over time it became increasingly clear that putting into PRACTICE these ideals meant a requirement of personal responsibility on the part of the recipients that the programs would never insist on and that the recipients would NEVER agree to (it has always been ok with recipients if they are given to but will never be ok if it means there are conditions attached – they say give me MY money, but don’t dare think i should DO something in return because you have no right to get into my personal life). in the end those that are helped are the kind of people that will make it anyway, people that take it upon themselves and often with God’s help make it to lasting betterment of circumstances – liberals like yourself(mostly anti-US democrats in todays politics) always begin by assuming they’re smarter than everyone else and instead of taking the time and necessary energy to understand an idea and the impacts it may have in the real world AND instead of considering the practical aspects (ie how it will affect actual working people instead of their subsidized buddies in academia) they simply do a john stewart and apply the same simplistic framework they’ve arrived at in their own minds to ANY idea that doesn’t SOUND to them like it fits their own framework and assume that if others agree with their ironic observations then the idea in question has been identified as wrong. never mind that many of those agreeing with them have a bong in one hand and an unemployment or assistance check in the other and while they may have an acceptable IQ they definitely have no willingness to go out and apply God given ability in a hard working way with personal responsibility for their own success or lack of. i’ve ranted enough on that. your comments follow this pattern as you dismissed my thoughts on the matter quickly and sarcastically while indicating your biases by interpreting what i said in a simplistic framework (‘a billion chinese get together…) i’m not saying that everyone is colluding openly and am not necessarily singling out asia since as i said the world in general views the US with envy, suspicion and fear and they would like to see us take a hit or at least make an impact on us. But i will say that in asia and especially china there is great credence given to cycles and the umbrella concept of ebb/flow of life covers is important to them in EVERYTHING including the markets, so that a very doubtful theory like this guys can spark the imagination of large numbers of people, even those quantitatively inclined that should know better. this coupled with a desire to impact the US by others can definitely move markets and as china grows in its use of its economic power on the global marketplace we need to pay attention to what they and others in the world do believe even if it’s nonsense like this. finally, several posts refer to the cia’s interest in his work and most imply that the if the cia wanted to know how it worked in detail that must be for some shadowy controlling purpose – has it occurred to you that the cia is in the business of protecting the public and they almost CERTAINLY have a reason to believe that he was up to no good for the US. this demonization of the cia in present times has no credible foundation and harms US citizens by weakening a very important organization – but liberals will quote some idiot like michael moore and conclude since the cia is alleged to have done numerous horrible things it must be true, after all that version will fit with their simplistic framework and the paranoid stoners will concur
Cycles definitely exist. But for clarification purposes can somebody please enlighten me where the 2.15 years come from?
8.6 yrs divided by 3 = 2.87 not 2.15.
8.6 / 4 = 2.15
From Armstrong’s 7/20/98 = S&P high (1184.10), the index dropped 19.2% (957.28). The drop took 27 trading days. It was 57 trading days before it made a sustained move up from that level (starting 10/8/98 = 959.44). So we will have to wait to see how the S&P performs (from it’s 1459.68 high on 2/20/07) over the next couple of months. Note that if you sold your S&P stocks and put your cash in T-bills from 7/20/98 to 11/8/02, you would have been ahead of the game from a return standpoint vs. buy and hold.
marina, anonomys
I believe the simplified chart to be misleading as to the nature of what is trying to be explained, i don’t believe it to be a simple case of 8.6/3 or 8.6/4… It says an 8.6 year cycle is made up of 3 cycles, of which are broken into 2 lengths, the long and the short leg, 2.15, 1.075 respectivly. a sin wave of 3 cycles, or periods, yields 3 peaks and 2 valleys. That is (2.15*3)+(1.075*2)=8.6.
As for my math being off the mark you are correct, it is not a 1 base it is a 10 base system, curse my average typing ability and shear lack of inclination to proof-read. However the 0 base system is the idea that the true archetyple numbers do not got from 0-9 or from 1-10, but in actuallity go from 0-10, yeilding 11 values, 0 being the begining, 10 being the end and rebirth, 010, the true 0 based binary function of the universe. Please read up on the M-Theory. And try and keep your mind open to some ideas that have been forged since the days of disco. It might do you some good.
3db
Thor, firstly, I am the “liberal” evidently, if you disagree with someone’s view, atleast make sure you are disagreeing with the correct person. Secondly, if you think investors in the asian markets are predominantly asian, you are sadly mistaken, based on actual weighted monetary amounts I am sure Europe and America are the leading investing countries in those markets. Also, anyone(and I say anyone loosely because the money that controls markets are usually from large firms or exceedingly wealthy investors) investing in the various markets around the world wouldn’t be anti-american anyway, why would they hate the country that they have used to better their own wealth through capitalism. The point is, anyone with enough power to sway markets wouldnt rock the boat for political reasons, if anything atleast use the view that the contrarian large companies are attempting to drive the market down through gathering populus support by means of this cycle belief; that atleast would be more likely. As far as me being an “anti-US” liberal, please don’t make ignorant comments like that, labeling people prior to knowing their history is not a good characteristic. I think you would be ashamed of yourself if you actually knew me to say a thing like that.
For those who say that this is such an unlikely and doubtful theory but then go on to suggest that the cycle theory is moving the world markets… whats more rational, that there is a cycle deep within the markets or that a cycle theory that is explained on one blog website is the sole reason for major market fluctions throughout the world
what a bunch of hogwash!! anyone who believes this please ontact me to purchase some top-flight waterfront real estate i own in the desert!!
CC, conquest, spoken like true dinasaurs of a modern age. Yes what is more likely that man and nature are more closely related than anyone would like to admit or that man is above, beyond and seperate from nature, not goverened by the rules the rest of the universe must follow. “The world is round” said Christopher, “Hogwash” said the ignorant. There is no one here that says this pi cycle is the end all, like all of science it is a “perfect model” to help us better understand the nature of the entity in question. Real DNA is not a perfect double helix, but the perfect double helix helps us better understand both the structure and function of DNA. But go ahead and believe it’s “hogwash” ( LOL ), the adventurous will take the leap twords the cities of gold.
3dbeing you have to read my comments a little more carefully…. i do believe in Armstrongs cycle theory, in fact I put my money where my mouth is on the 26th and have obviously done quite well… I’m just saying that this isn’t a case of the tail waging the dog as many have posted… ie The world is round because the world is round not because Christopher said it was round.
Martins “The Greatest Bull Market in History” book. I can’t seem to locate the 2 chapters at the end of chapter 1 or the 2 chapters at the begining of chapter 2. If anyone has these in E form I would be grateful.
According to his writings which I found copies of, the actual date he predicted was Feb 24, 2007, not Feb 27, 2007 as listed above. Being Feb 24 was a Saturday and Feb 26/27 the next actual trading days, he was exact on the date!
I am very concerned after watching the market and overall economy that I own AZK which is a gold mining company in Canada completely viable on the price of gold being over $450 over the next 5 years. Somehow after all of what has happened I still can not part ways with this stock. I definitely think if there is going to be any shift as Armstrong stated it will be towards deflation, as the last 5 years have been rampant with inflation; example in my area a townhouse costs $500,000 and gas costs $2.40 a gallon.
George,
Inflation or deflation? What will we call it when your townhouse costs $150,000, and gas costs $8.50 a gallon?
This just came out this morning ….. scary stuff
Huge boost in military spending by Chinese
Email Print Normal font Large font Mary-Anne Toy Herald Correspondent in Beijing and agencies
March 5, 2007
CHINA will boost military spending by almost 18 per cent this year, a higher than predicted increase that will unnerve the US and fuel fears about the real nature of the “peaceful rise” of the world’s most populous country.
The increase was revealed yesterday in a briefing before today’s opening of the annual session of the National People’s Congress, China’s parliament. It continues the trend of double-digit defence spending increases that has drawn criticism from the US and concerns from neighbours such as Japan and Taiwan.
Jiang Enzhu, a spokesman for the parliament, told the briefing that the People’s Liberation Army’s 2007 budget would be 350.92 billion yuan ($58 billion), a 17.8 per cent increase from last year. This represents 7.5 per cent of China’s total budget spending for the year and follows last year’s 14.7 per cent increase in defence spending. Last year’s military budget was 283.8 billion yuan but American and other analysts have long suggested that China’s real military spending is up to three times that amount.
China has the world’s largest army – 2.3 million soldiers – but its technological capacity lags massively behind that of the US.
However it has been trying to reduce the size of the army and provide long overdue pay rises and improved conditions to remaining troops to improve morale and efficiency.
The aim is to have a smaller but better trained and equipped military force. China also needs to renew its naval and other capacities and is trying to reduce its heavy reliance on imports for advanced weapons systems by developing its own military technology. It recently, for example, unveiled a domestically designed fighter jet.
In January China successfully shot down a weather satellite with a ground-based missile, prompting international concern about whether China’s military ambitions extended to space.
It also prompted the US Vice-President, Dick Cheney, during his visit to Asia and Australia last month to voice concerns about the anti-satellite missile test and China’s military build-up in general.
The Prime Minister, John Howard, said that while he had no illusions about China’s authoritarian government, he was at pains to emphasise Australia’s success in building a strong economic partnership with China while maintaining the US-Australia alliance.
The US urged China yesterday to be more transparent about its military build-up.
Asked if Washington was dissatisfied with the level of detail about China’s military spending plans, the Deputy Secretary of State, John Negroponte, said the US needed a better understanding of “what China has in mind with respect to its military modernisation, what the doctrines are that underlie this and what their intentions are”.
Mr Howard is due in Japan next weekend to sign a defence and security agreement linked to the trilateral security dialogue created at the start of this decade by Japan, Australia and the US. Australia has denied that the security co-operation with Japan and the US is directed at containing China.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/huge-boost-in-military-spending-by-chinese/2007/03/04/1172943275799.html#
Looking at the ECM, there is a peak from 2005 that drops to 2006.075 but I recall that there was a nice bull run at that time period. Did the model fail?
Thor, Marina, and Tom Griesel (3db?):
Based on my look at the data presented …
8.6 / 8 = 1.075 … thus the fundamental periodicity appears to be 2.15 years (full cycle) with the half cycles being every 1.075 years. Also, understand that the derivative of the forcing equation with respect to time would be equal to 0 every 1.075 years (i.e., a maximum, minimum, OR inflection point in the function’s curve).
1.075 + 1.075 = 2.15 … the first two half cycles continue to increase over the first 2.15-year full cycle (first ‘leg’) to a maximum (first peak). This would imply that an inflection point probably exists at the end of the first 1.075-year half cycle, thus the reason why Mr. Martin’s graph only shows a continuous rise over the first 2.15-year cycle (‘leg’).
The third 1.075-year half cycle drops to a minimum, the fourth 1.075-year cycle rises to a maximum (second peak), the fifth 1.075-year half cycle drops to a minimum, and the sixth 1.075-year half cycle rises to a maximum (the third and final peak). This represents the second, third, fourth and fifth ‘legs’.
After the third peak, the next two half cycles decrease to a minimum (last trough) over the final 2.15-year full cycle (sixth ‘leg’), again with a probable inflection point at the 1.075-year half cycle.
Considering only maximums and minimums for peaks and troughs, the representation by Mr. Martin is actually:
2.15 (max) + 1.075 (min) + 1.075 (max) + 1.075 (min) +1.075 (max) + 2.15 (min) = 8.6
It appears that the best representation method would be to include each inflection point; therefore the cycles may be better presented as:
1.075 (inf) + 1.075 (max) + 1.075 (min) + 1.075 (max) + 1.075 (min) +1.075 (max) + 1.075 (inf) + 1.075 (min) = 8.6
From a physics / math perspective it seems that 8.6 years is a minor harmonic every four cycles, and that 51.6 years is a major harmonic every 24 cycles.
Mr. Martin appears to have made an effort to establish what drives the forcing function and the harmonics, and for that effort alone I applaud him. Whether he is correct or not is another matter, but he has established a model that seems to be a fairly amazing predictive tool. I personally would not cast stones at the model until I see all of the data and the core causal factors he has incorporated. Any honest statistician would tell you that a correlation’s ability to predict future outcomes (i.e., the prediction limits, not the confidence level) is related to the size of the original data set’s standard deviation, the projection distance into the future beyond the last valid data point, and the ability to establish an accurate cause-and-effect basis (i.e., a realistic expected equation form around which the data is correlated). Otherwise, a highly successful model becomes just a lucky guess. Mr. Martin saw a pattern, and chased it to an apparently successful answer. Only time, and continued refinement of the model with the additional data time generates, will tell if the underlying assumptions of the original model was correct or not.
“Imagination is more important than knowledge” – Albert Einstein
LOL – okay, now that I posted, the addressee correction; should be to Marina, Anonymous, and 3dbeing — not Thor, Marina and Tom G … d’oh!
MR. mathmagician,
Well now someone speaking some fact based conclusions, thank you. And you are obviously a step or two (or three or four) above me in the math/science. Im going to go against better scientific practice and hazzard to guess, I’ve been reading up on electro-magnetics and their varried effects, one of which is borderline mind control (from a supposedly non-sentient source), and various natural sources of electro-magnetic fields, like the earth, the moon and the sun. The full moon ionizes (I forget if it’s positive or negative, but I believe it is positive charge, that has the
effect), making people generaly more aggressive, sun spots, release massive amounts of this field, and of course the earth is surrounded by it. How funny would it be if these fields were in actuality influencing world trends on the stock market?
Just a thought…. hahahaha and they called me mad!
“Dont just look for what you think you will find”
-that CSI guy
3db
MR. mathmagician,
Well now someone speaking some fact based conclusions, thank you. And you are obviously a step or two (or three or four) above me in the math/science. Im going to go against better scientific practice and hazzard to guess, I’ve been reading up on electro-magnetics and their varried effects, one of which is borderline mind control (from a supposedly non-sentient source), and various natural sources of electro-magnetic fields, like the earth, the moon and the sun. The full moon ionizes (I forget if it’s positive or negative, but I believe it is positive charge, that has the
effect), making people generaly more aggressive, sun spots, release massive amounts of this field, and of course the earth is surrounded by it. How funny would it be if these fields were in actuality influencing world trends on the stock market?
Just a thought…. hahahaha and they called me mad!
“Dont just look for what you think you will find”
-that CSI guy
3db
This is what Joanie said February 28, 2007 at 11:08 AM:
Ummmm…maybe I’m missing something here. Did anyone double check his math? 2007.15 would be (365 *0.15) = 54.75 days into the year. Subtract 31 days for January, and you get 23.75. So, shouldn’t it be February 23rd?
I did the math for the 2008 date, and it was March 22nd. I think he just goofed on that one. But, it does seem a little less profound now, doesn’t it!
Still quite profound Joanie: the S&P 500 topped 22 February 2007, made LOWER LOWS on your date of 23 February 2007, attenpted a failed rally at open Monday, 26 February 2007 and broke down on 27 February 2007.
Not bad, I should say.
Now that I have seen my comment posted, I think it was JD, not Joanie, who said:
Ummmm…maybe I’m missing something here. Did anyone double check his math? 2007.15 would be (365 *0.15) = 54.75 days into the year. Subtract 31 days for January, and you get 23.75. So, shouldn’t it be February 23rd?
I did the math for the 2008 date, and it was March 22nd. I think he just goofed on that one. But, it does seem a little less profound now, doesn’t it!
Keepin fingers crossed … and sending prayers … that Martin will soon be free!
!!! Please join my best wishes !!!
Next week his trial starts.
Contrahour,
Just so you know, Martin Armstrong is right again! Right on the dot for February 27, 2007 – our Shanghai Surprise.
How can I get copy of table giving turning points on 8.6 month intervals ??
Keepin fingers crossed … and some prayers for martins trial … tomorrow!
!!! Marty i wish ya the best !!!
It took nearly 30 years for my dad to develop this model and his refusing to turn over its source code to the government is a big reason why he has been held in jail for over 7 years without a trial.
His model was his life’s work and his passion that ultimately landed him in jail. Although it’s great to hear people that have benefited from his insight, after seeing what has happened to him I wish he kept it to himself. There is obviously so much I can say and although I never post messages, I am now reaching out. I could never put into words what this has done to my father and my family. Even as I write to you now and try and express my feelings towards what has happened to him my eyes are filled with tears. Regardless if you support my father’s beliefs or not, I’m asking for your help. As of now his criminal sentencing is set for March 20th and his Civil Contempt hearing for the end of April. These dates have changed many times since they were originally set in January and they are likely to be pushed back again. My family, friends, old client’s of my father, and myself have been sending emails and letters to members of the Judiciary Committee of the House and Senate and the Judges involved. Unfortunately our efforts have gone unanswered and we ask for more help. For those of you that have posted supportive comments and blessings, we thank you. You really have no idea how much your thoughtful words mean. Although my dad is a fighter, sometimes he needs to know he’s not alone so I’ve printed out some of your messages and sent them to him just for this reason and I know it has helped. For over 7 years he’s been living in a cell with a 1-hour weekly visit and 300 minutes a month for phone calls. The visiting hours are on Wednesday and I’m the only one of my family who lives near the city so I get to see him the most. Since my grandmom (his mother) is 88 and lives in south jersey almost 2 hrs away, she relies on my brother and/or aunt near her to drive her up. Given that they have to take the day off of work to do so they don’t get to see him that often.
I’m not looking to change anyone’s views or opinions I only ask for your help in a situation that should make every citizen of the United States outraged. I attached the latest NY Times article that explains an accurate account of what has happened and some contact information of people that have the power to do something. This obviously means a lot to my dad and my family for you to share your thoughts with any or all of the people listed below. My deepest appreciation for your help and support.
Thank you,
Vicky
NY Times article
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/16/business/16jail.html?ex=1329282000&en=b9e17a1d6cc28cfc&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
Judges Involved
Criminal Judge John F. Keenan: Has the power to grant time served
Daniel Patrick MoynihanCourtroom: 20C
United States CourthouseChambers Phone: (212) 805-0220
500 Pearl St., Room 1930Deputy Phone: (212) 805-0106
New York, NY 10007
Civil Judge Kevin P Castel: Has the power to drop the contempt
Daniel Patrick MoynihanCourtroom: 12C
United States CourthouseChambers Phone: (212) 805-0262
500 Pearl St., Room 2260Deputy Phone: (212) 805-0131
New York, NY 10007
The email addresses of the Judiciary Committee Chairmen for the Senate and the House of Representatives
Patrick Leahy: [email protected]
John Conyers Jr.: [email protected]
House of Representatives Judiciary Committee: General email box
http://judiciary.house.gov/Contact.aspx
Senate Judiciary Committee: Website that gives their mailing address
http://judiciary.senate.gov/
Victoria – what about calling Michael Moore – eventually he can do something for you … i think it would be a big story for him – and i think ge’s a very good and honest man. Calling M.M. should be easier for you, than for me from austria.
Also eventually start an email with the story and correspondign links and your request, which you sent to your friends and asking them for forwarding that email to at least 10 other friends etc … and everybody should note his name and adress at the bottom of the mail … and then after 100 reached … sent the mail to those judges and congressman and radio station and … you know what i mean?!
Also eventually try to get a meeting with one of those presidency candidates.
Sorry for my bad english.
If i can be of further help – just contact me via email.
Wish ya and your father the really best – esp. finally justice!!!
!!! Warm regards !!!
PS: I consider to create a homepage – with the whole story – if march 20 doesn’t bring any results. Maybe that should have been done earlier.
Michael Moore is a buffoon who showboats his leftist agenda by way of shoddily produced movies. Do not be fooled that he is fighting for the common man because he is a tool used by the elite to foist propaganda and “how to think” pablum on the public.
Martin’s story has been told already and doesn’t need Moore but it is a disgrace that Armstrong hasn’t had his day in court for the past 7 years.
Russ has the only blog (Princetone Economics) dedicated to Martin Armstrong’s plight and it’s well worth taking a look. On it, Martin’s son makes a heartfelt plea for everyone’s help and I think it’s worth the time to act on his behalf. Martin’s work is too important to kept locked up in prison.
http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.com/
ONE OF THE BEST KNOW STOCK CYCLE GURU’S FEATURED MARTIN’S 8.6 YR CYCLE IN HIS CURRENT OBSERVATION UPDATE.
http://www.stockmarketcycles.com/current_observations.htm
Just announced: Martin sentenced to 5 years in prison with no credit for time already spent.
vicky A.
There is a group of individuals controlling the world money system. When someone discovers some of their plan, they put them away. That’s your dad’s problem. They don’t know how he came upon it. Through this kind of system, they are controlling the world’s wealth. It’s not for us to intrude. There aim is for us to be their slaves and them the world dictators.
if the cycle works, the dow may have double topped and we could enter into a bear market which will foreshadow a us recession. the chinese market action today almost confirms it.
The recent surge in stock prices has made the global sell-off on Feb. 27 look like a blip. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have gained about 7 percent since then.
Any comments?
You have to remember this is an economic confidence model and not meant to be exact highs and lows in the prices of the market… a similar thing happened in july of 98 when the market dropped 20 percent from Armstrong’s top but then continued on to make the drop in 98 look like a blip, but many would say the market was never really the same after that… Armstrong realized this and according to Barclay Leib who used to work for PEI, he covered himself before the run back up… what the model would suggest is that in four years the dow will be below 13k how we get there is another story…
thanks ,,
i heard about his theory but couldnt find it on the net except here …
thank u again for posting it ,,
p.s. if the lows of one part of the world is the high of another part ,, how would that make the cycles come from the forces of nature itself ??
if the origin is the forces of nature , then all the world would be equally and simontanously effected …
victoria – this is Eed from Saudi arabia ,,
here in our stock market we have four year cycle and 7 months or so cycles ,, ur father’s work is indeed genuis , and it is the only support I found anywhere to my observation in our local market ..
now having read his brilliant article , i will re-examine our stock market again using his words as a beacon ..
I pray for his freedom ,
I wish the American feds would realise the great loss they would inflict on the world community as a whole when hurting individuals of his talents and magnitude..
This is awesome.. I did a similar cycle for my online game, and made some money. So this not only works in reality, it works for everything. I will do further observation.