If you’re bullish…

The market is showing lots of signs that a trade-able bounce is here.  The quality of this bounce will tell us a lot about the market’s ability to stage a fourth quarter rally.  If the market can only muster a one (Friday) or two day bounce before selling-off further, it will be a sign of longer term problems. 

First, short-term trader sentiment has tipped to the negative side as shown by volume in the major exchange-traded funds and futures.  Jason Goepferd from Sentimentrader.com created the "Liquidity Premium" indicator which compares the volume in the QQQQ and SPY vs the volume in the underlying stocks in the indexes.  When uncertainty and fear rises, traders rush into the liquid ETFs vs trading individual stocks.  The Liquidity Premium indicator rose to daily highs on Thursday of last week indicating that in the short term, traders were scared.

Second, the wolf wave pattern I mentioned last week came close enough to reaching its target price that you could call it completed.

Wolf_wave_101005

Third, there’s been a steady accumulation of puts over the past two months that the CBOE put call ratio is showing a massive bearish bet being made.  If this bet begins to be unwound, it could launch the market to new highs. 

Cboe_putcall_101005

Finally, Tom McClellan has been predicting a bottom in early October based on the 40-20 week cycle.  The time frame for a bottom is now upon us. 

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