If you’re bearish…

The one chart that has me worried about the near term more than anything else is the Summation Index.  The NASDAQ and NYSE Summation Index have rolled over below the zero line, which is usually an omen of continued selling. 

Summation_101005   

Second, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have activated rather slanted head and shoulders patterns.  Neither pattern has met its price objective, yet. 

Nasdaq_101005

Spx_101005

Third, a bearish interpretation of the Elliott wave pattern from the 2002 lows would indicate that the market has now broken down from a Fifth Wave Ending Diagonal pattern.  That would also be a sign that the bear market is back. 

Spx_elliott_wave_101005

Finally, and a bit more subjectively, during bull markets, buying on down days usually creates positive alpha – that is, stocks usually bounce back from severe declines rather quickly and strongly.  During bear markets, this pattern changes – stocks that go down, stay down and often keep going down.  The last three purchases I have made into steep declines are all lower by 5% now.  That’s not a good sign but it could just be a symptom of poor stock picking.