From Steve Sjuggerud this morning…
You may think it’s impossible to see long-term rates go much lower than they are today. You may say there’s no precedent for this. Japan’s Rates Went Below 1% After Japan’s Bubble Burst
Japan is 10 years ahead of us…
Japan’s asset bubble peaked around 1990, and long-term interest rates in Japan at the asset bubble peak were above 6% – the same as they were in the U.S. at our stock market peak in 2000. (I’m using 10-year government bonds, as examples for both countries.)
Five years after the asset bubble peak in Japan, long-term interest rates had fallen to 4%. Now, here in the U.S., five years after our stock market peak, long-term interest rates here are 4%. Yet again, the same as Japan’s…
Long-term interest rates in Japan actually bottomed out below 1% in 2003, 11 years after Japan’s asset bubble burst. Take a look:
My thoughts – the long bond is still in a bull market (lower rates). However, I’m skeptical of the Japan analogy. Japan had numerous issues including a both a stock and real estate bubble that burst at the same time. In addition, Japanese culture and government intervention prevented the economy from adjusting to these shocks in a relatively timely manner.
Maybe our real estate bubble is just a little behind schedule.
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