A Handy Cheat-Sheet For KKR and Blackstone Group

Almost every month the private equity industry raises a new record fund and completes a record sized deal.   Just last week, KKR, Bain Capital and Merrill Lynch agreed to the largest ever private equity buyout when they bought HCA in a transaction valued at $33 billion. 

And these mega deals will likely continue.  Last month, the Blackstone Group closed on a $15 billion world wide private equity fund.  Not to be outdone, KKR recently announced it is raising a $10 billion world wide private equity fund.  To put the size of these funds in perspective, I’ve pulled a paragraph from the "New Kings of Capitalism" article from the Economist from just a couple of years ago. 

…there has been a dramatic growth in the size of private-equity funds, and in the size of the top firms that manage them. Most private-equity firms raise funds as limited partnerships. The firm is the general partner that manages the fund and gets paid an annual fee (a percentage of the money in, or promised to, a fund) and later a large slice of any profits; outside investors (who often lock up their money for up to ten years) become limited partners who share only in the profits.

In 1980, the world’s biggest fund (KKR‘s) was $135m. Today there are scores of funds with over $1 billion each. J.P. Morgan’s latest one is currently the biggest, at $6.5 billion, ahead of Blackstone’s; Permira has Europe’s largest, at around $6 billion at today’s exchange rate. A $10 billion fund can be only a matter of time, if only for the fabulous annual fees.

A billion dollar buy-out fund is now relatively small change in the world of private equity so these mega funds need to look at bigger and bigger deals and bigger and bigger companies. So in the interest of being a good financial citizen, I’ve provided a handy cheat sheet for KKR and Blackstone Group in their search for deals big enough to attract their interest. 

I’ve run a screen that looks for public companies that are capable of "taking themselves private."  In other words, I’ve attempted to find companies that already generate enough cash flow to pay the interest on the debt required to "buy-out" the company.   In essence, this screen looks for companies with steady cash flows, good balance sheets and a low valuation – exactly what value investors and buy out funds are looking for in making investments. 

The actual screen searches for companies that generated enough cash from operations to pay an 8% interest rate on the debt needed to buy the company at today’s enterprise value (equity market value plus total debt outstanding minus cash on the balance sheet).  As an example, a company with $100 million market cap and $10 million in debt would need to generate $8.8 million in cash from operations ($110 * 8% = $8.8 million interest expense) to take itself private.  It’s a simplistic calculation because I’m not assuming a premium needs to be paid for the stock, that no equity needs to be injected into the deal (just straight debt), and I make no tax adjustment for the additional interest expense that the company can write off on their bill to Uncle Sam.  Nor do I base my numbers on forward estimates…just on last twelve months numbers. 

With that, lets take a look at some of the companies that could sustain an interest payment and debt load required to take themselves private.  Those companies should be ripe for a buyout from Blackstone or KKR, and therefore, ripe for the purchase by value oriented equity investors.   

Nike (NKE)

It’s amazing how much money you can make selling $200 sneakers made by Vietnamese kids earning $0.50 an hour.   Now if they could just cut Tiger Wood’s and Michelle Wie’s endorsements down to the same size, the company’s profits would truly be stunning.  Given the size of their endorsement contracts, Tiger Woods and Michelle Wie might actually want to make a play for Nike themselves. 

Nike generated  $1.5 billion in cash from operations in 2005 and is on track to generate about the same amount this year.  The company’s equity market cap is $20 billion, with a net cash balance (total debt minus total cash) of about $1.3 billion.  So Woods and Wie would only need to find about $18.7 billion to buy the company – a sum they could probably pull together in a long weekend playing golf.   

At an 8% interest rate, the interest payments on $18.7 billion would equal about $1.5 billion, which is right in line with what the company has consistently generated over the last 3 years.   Since Nike only needs about $200 million in maintenance capital expenditures, it’s a perfect buy out candidate.  With some cost cuts and less endorsement expenses, the company could easily generate enough cash to continue operating smoothly. 

In fact, Woods and Wie could take the company private today if Phil Knight wouldn’t mind working for one of his current employees.   

Sherwin-Williams (SHW)

Sherwin-Williams has been under a cloud because of lead paint and asbestos litigation concerns.  In addition, the company could be hurt if the housing bubble implodes and everyone stops trying to "Flip This House" by slapping a new coat of paint over the hot pink wallpaper in the bathroom. 

But if the housing bubble doesn’t burst, then Sherwin-Williams is prime for a takeout by KKR and Blackstone. 

Last year, Sherwin-Williams generated about $716 million in cash from operations.  The three years prior, the company generated about $550 million in each year.  That’s pretty steady cash flow.  SHW trades at an equity market cap of $6.7 billion and has net debt of about $700 million.  KKR or Blackstone would need to find about $7.5 billion in debt to buy the company at today’s price.  At an 8% interest rate, the company would need to generate about $600 million in cash to pay its interest payments.  It certainly generated enough last year to cover that, and then some. 

So if you’re an optimist on the housing market, SHW could be a great target for a buy out.   Even if you assume a return to a steady state market, SHW might not be such a bad buy since it’s cash flows have been fairly steady for long periods of time. 

WW Grainger (GWW)

WW Grainger distributes over 800,000 maintenance and industrial products through its massive 1,000 page catalog.  The company is somewhat cyclical, but not so cyclical that it goes from making to losing money in a heartbeat.   The items that Grainger sells are all typically needed to keep an industrial company running smoothly. GWW’s customers can delay purchases, but they usually can’t put them off forever.   

With that said, GWW’s financial performance has been very steady.  Last year the company generated $430 million in cash from operations.  That’s in the middle of the $312 to $510 million range of cash from operations over the past five years.   The company has a $5.5 billion market cap, $500 million of cash and virtually no debt. 

KKR or Blackstone would therefore have to pony up about $5 billion in debt to buy the company.   At an 8% rate, the interest expense would be $400 million.    The company easily covered that the last two years but might come in a bit under that this year.  GWW just pre-announced it’s first earnings miss in several years.   However, over time GWW generates enough cash from operations to support a high interest payment.  But if you assume that the economic slowdown stays away from recession territory, the GWW makes a very attractive buy-out candidate. 

Exxon Mobil (XOM)

So Nike, WW Grainger and Sherwin-Williams aren’t big enough for you?  How about the largest company in the world.  XOM makes a perfect take out target if you assume that oil will stay remotely around the current level. 

Last year, XOM generated $48 billion in operating cash flow.  Since XOM constantly needs to drill for new oil to maintain it’s production, it is a very capital intensive business.  We therefore have to assume that you need a fairly high amount of capital expenditures to maintain the value of the business.  XOM spent $14 billion last year finding oil and natural gas.  After deducting the cap ex from cash from operations, XOM is left with $34billion in cash flow to make interest payments. 

The company’s enterprise value was $375 billion – and XOM actually has a net cash balance on the balance sheet which is amazing for a company this capital intensive.  At an 8% interest rate, the company would need to generate $30 billion in cash to pay its interest expense.  XOM generated that and $4 billion extra last year.  That’s amazing.   And XOM is on track to generate over $40 billion in cash this year. 

Forget about KKR and and Blackstone…if you or I could raise $375 billion in debt, we could make a bid for XOM today.  I’m going to call MasterCard this afternoon to see if I can get an increase in my credit line – they raise my limit every other week, so why not just let me just take it to $375 billion. 

If XOM is a bit much for you to chew off, Chevron (CVX), ConnocoPhilips(COP), Valero (VLO) and Sunnoco (SUN) also pass the screen. 

Take your pick or buy ’em all. 

278 thoughts on “A Handy Cheat-Sheet For KKR and Blackstone Group”

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    Luxury expenses are treatment within Cina as the overall economy weakens. Fiscal expansion retarded to its minimum inside 36 months very last one fourth. The uk’s Burberry said yesterday their product sales ended up reach with the decline in China.

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    Kusama created her first stateside look in over Thirty years at the introduction. In a steering wheel easy chair, the actual musician waved to crowd involving viewers as well as supporters. “I promised myself personally any particular one day time I would beat The big apple making my personal title in the world,” she instructed the group. Fittingly Kusama was any fixture of the New York avant-garde artwork scene in the Nineteen sixties, prior to shifting back to the girl local The japanese in 1970.

    In terms of how the effort came to exist, Kusama informed Women’s Don Daily: “Marc Jacobs came to observe us in Seattle inside 2005 anf the husband talked about basically wished to come to the particular Declares as well as do style. That sort of encouraged us. During those times, I became producing poetry as well as fiction. Manner has usually drawn us.”

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    The particular launch regarding Yayoi Kusama x Lv refers while using starting of the retrospective associated with Kusama’s just work at your Whitney Art gallery associated with Artwork, opening up July Twelfth, consequently permit the dot breach start off.

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  19. 夏风有信,荷香弥漫  夏风有信,荷香弥漫  夜色的帷幕作别了西天的裙摆,那血红的残霞也敛尽了焦躁的酷热!时光就是这样的,总是觉得夏天的季节里,除了天 鲸基网 籁的流传 补漆笔 之外,应该还有一抹淡淡的花香。夏风之中,拈花如韵,静静品味,居然心中久藏一阙词,细细读来,竟然平仄有韵,馨香满怀。  闲暇无事,清晨时分,我总是喜欢独自来到这片荷塘,无须带上任何东西,也无须任何的眷恋和牵挂,只需一份淡淡的心情。远远望去,好长好大的一片荷塘,满塘碧绿随风摇曳,馨相拂面,让人心旷神怡;近看,清幽的流水,倒影出婉约的颜面,亭亭玉立,如同翩跹的少女,不擦脂,不抹粉, lancome兰蔻miracle 素面朝天,淡雅高洁,那些风韵,那点柔情,随波流动,幽深而绵长,谁人

  20. 细嚼生活美好  “你喜欢现在的生活吗?” 鲸基网   假如突然间有个人这么问你的话。  能回答的也就只有两个答案,满足或者是贪婪。  我们都无法解释满足和贪 德芙巧克力 婪到底哪个好,哪个不好,无法用一对反义词去评论这两个词,就像是生活,是你无法预料,但又是你能够掌握的,它时常会给你带来意想不到的惊喜,又在缝隙中给你穿插一些让你痛苦难堪的跌落,你若是满足,那你就无法看到未来,你若是贪婪,你就无法细品现在。生活,就是这样复杂。  也许很多人都跟我不一 粘钩 创意 样,讨厌下雨天,讨厌它的潮湿与闷热,讨厌它的吵杂,但我却恰恰喜欢着它这两点,还有雨后天晴的别有一番滋味。每当下雨的时候,我都会静静的坐在窗子旁边,任凭那窗开的多大,任凭风掀

  21. 我的坐标,我的姿态  数学很 鲸基网 神奇,它教会我们利用直角坐标系准确地找 博世测距仪 到空间中的点。在社会这个大集体中,我们每个个体都宛若空间上的某点,要想准确地给自己定位,不妨也建立一个坐标系并描出坐标原点。  坐标系的建立,为 名蔻 我们找到了努力奋斗的起点。这样我们就有了前进的方向,不致于迷迷茫茫,行进如海底捞针般艰难。有了坐标原点,我们就可以全面看清自己,不致于形成自负或自卑的消极心理,有利于我们做人做事。  有句话“天外有天,人外有人”,这简单的八个字却折射出我们做人应有的准则。——低调。  当今是以应试教育为主。中考、高考、大学是我们最直接的目标,要想跨越求学征途的这两道门槛,学习显得尤为重要,考试也成了家常

  22. 轻轻地,我将离开你  渴求了很久的雪 鲸基网 一直没有飘落,只有呼啸而过的寒风敲打着推开的旧窗。窗外的城市街头行人渐渐聚集,商家店铺忙忙 斗篷 毛呢大衣 绿绿,远处不时传来火车的长鸣,不经意间,年,已吹响了号角。  你是做酒店餐饮的,过年刚好是最忙的时候,所以我们又不能一起回家过年和父母团聚了。明天,我就要踏上归乡的路途,留下你孤单一人独守空闺。惋叹,这一路走来聚少离多的婚姻生活,分分离离总是惹人无限 福临门大米 感伤和心下不忍,如果我能,我愿将所有的温情都揉进明日的离别,暖你在没有我的日子里那份清冷。  不是无情,亦非薄幸,奈何家有垂暮爹娘,等待我一年一次的归期,纵有千般不舍,我仍需离你而去。就要走了,懒散的时间突然变得紧张起来,觉

  23. 守望麦田  守望麦田,是想守望它的静。  无论麦田是绿色的还是金色的,当你站在田埂上,凝视着麦田,你会发 鲸基网 现你内心深处原有 板电源 的躁动会慢慢平息下来,从里到外,充斥着宁静。就仿佛是一场无声的电影——当微风拂过,你只会看见波浪般起伏的麦子,而听不见任何声音——这时候,任何的声音都只能算噪音,哪怕是自然的声音。当你守望麦田时,你会感到绝对的安静,让你情不自禁屏住呼吸的安静。你会怕惊醒它、打扰它,会对自己的 aqours水团 到来而感到惶恐——不知是否惊扰了这麦田。  这时候,请你把整个人都放空,然后冥想或沉思,因为这样的麦田,会让你觉得所有的嘈杂与烦恼都被过滤掉了,只剩一个干净轻盈的灵魂——这时候,你只能做这些事,否则,那将

  24. 弹指一挥间  作者:惊鸿影  窗外,雨掸霜叶。  指尖穿过鬓发,很容易便想起“青丝蘸白雪,来路生云烟”这句歌词。想起来的时候,眉间心上, 鲸基网阔腿裤女 牛仔 翻边 是沧海成荒野的坦然。  记不起是何时听的这首歌。只知道,听过以后,那些红尘往事便沉淀了。无奈今世落入尘网太深,否则,我定要做佛前的那朵青莲。你看,那朵青莲,至今还在无我无他的盛开,看透了红尘往事。  在古代,新婚夫妇在饮交杯酒前各剪下一缕头发,绾在一起表示同心。宋人孟元老的《东京梦华录》记载“凡娶妇,男女对拜毕,就床,男左女右,留少头发二家出匹缎,钗子,木 蓝山咖啡豆 梳,头须之类,谓之合髻。”说的就是这种结发仪式。结发,意味着两人携手直至白发苍苍。  我们的情感是缠绵深

  25. 文字是一片诗意的牧场   鲸基网 在别人的眼里,文字可能就是白纸黑字那么 小冰箱 简单,顶多把它作为一种交流的工具或者平台,然而,于我,却不这么认为,在我心里,它就是使人诗意栖居的牧场,生命到了那里,无论是伫立还是远看或者散步,都能给人带去无限的遐思和惬意。  老实说,具体我也说不清楚从什么时候开始有此感觉,是随着阅历 热水袋充电 的不断提升还是阅读能力的逐渐增强或者更简单点说是自己开始用我手写我心?反正不管怎么讲,当下的我已经把文字当作一片诗意的牧场,并且感觉越来越好,越来越深!  是的,不可否认,十几年前,我可能与众人一样,只把文字当作文字本身,或者是看作表达自己情绪、想法的一种宣泄,如此而已。但最近这两年,通过阅读了大量

  26. 没有情趣的人,对生活是麻木的  1  人要活在趣味之中。  鲸基网  也许很多人,都没有读过梁启超这句话,即便读过,也是读过而已,难以从心肠深处、真真切切获取一点体悟,更别说对自己的生活方式引发一番思索、改进。  对于梁启超,之 凯兰朵中年女装外套 前只知他是一段历史的弄潮儿,戊戌变法的领导者(虽然失败了),政治家,思想家。  在他众多字号别称当中,“饮冰室主人”、“自由斋主人”这两个,恰恰透露出趣味之意,也不禁对他有了一层新的认识。  最近心血来潮,连续看了几期情感调解类的节目。来自不同家庭的各种疑难杂症、沉疴积弊,从现实角度查看,好像总是因为 【普沃达】高端吸尘杀菌除螨机除螨仪 金钱和时间的问题,经济不够宽裕呀,时间太过紧促呀,妻子持家无道乱花钱呀,丈夫只忙

  27. 秋夜,我 鲸基网 在风中想起了你 华为荣耀4X手机壳   编辑荐:带着阵阵凉意的秋风不停地拂面而来,难道这风里有他的叹息,或是哀怨?为何让我如此心痛?!泪冰凉了我的脸,风儿捎走了我的泪滴,吹向远方……  因为躲起来的月,似乎我已停止想你很久了,而今晚微凉的秋风 糯米网团购电影票 ,竟不知觉地让我猛然又想起了你!泪便顺着脸颊悄然滑落,心便又针刺般地锥痛起来……  今年的秋,因为漫长的夏,虽说来的有些晚,但却走的特别急似的,似乎仅仅几天而已,便越发地让人一天天地感觉到了深秋的凉意似的清冷……  我依然走在周围长满野草的熟悉的小径上,这里是我的百草园,我的心的世界!我竟然突兀地想感谢遗忘了割除这条小径四周野草的物业,是你们的故意疏忽还是真的遗忘了小区

  28. 【徐东风诗歌】与暮春书  与 暮 春 书  作者:徐东风  -  站在 鲸基网 春夏之交的路口  认不出那些似曾相识的面孔  就像我叫不出一些花草的名字  春与夏,握手告别  穿过花香筑起的屏障  -  雨的清凉,试图敲开季节的门 2SA1943 槛  滋润春梦呓语,随风的流动  将旅途的迷茫,与对季节的缠绵  一并唤醒惺忪的睡眼  -  微凉的风,吹开浩大的静寂  又轻轻拂过我的面颊  如母亲慈祥的呵护  又仿若父亲严厉地斥责  刻骨铭心,却又如此温暖心房  -  风薄如蝉翼,我试图  将一缕风揽入怀中  感受它的温柔,可一场细雨  将你淋得支离破碎  然后,又 美食外卖 汇聚成慈祥  轻抚我眼角的鱼尾  擦拭那滴将要滑落的

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