Investment U had an interesting discussion with Jim Rogers which is published here. While I’m always fascinated by Jim’s comments, I was even more interested at his prediction that the commodity bull market will last until 2014 to 2022. That lines up perfectly with the next peak of the Kondrateiff wave between 2020 and 2025, which I wrote about in my last post.
Skousen: You’ve written a book called Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably In the World’s Best Market. Given that commodities have gone through a major correction of late, are they going to make a comeback? Is this the top of a market, or just a correction?
Rogers: First, we’re in a secular bull market in commodities, which started early in 1999… I went back and looked, and the shortest bull market in commodities I could find lasted 15 years, and the longest lasted 23 years. So, if history is any guide, this bull market will last sometime until 2014 and 2022. That’s not a prediction; I’m just telling you what history would indicate. Yes, some commodities are up, but if you look at the commodities market, there are only five or six commodities that have made all-time highs. And they’re not even – most of them – above the old all-time highs. Zinc is, copper is, and oil is, but the rest of them, even aluminum, which got near its all-time high, or lead, or tin… they’re not far above their old all-time highs, for the most part.
MS: Gold and silver… they haven’t hit their all-time highs.
JR: Silver is 75% below its all-time high… gold is 30% below its all-time high. Sugar is 80% below its all-time high. Corn is 50% below its all-time high. Cotton is 60% below its all-time high. I could go on and on… and those aren’t adjusted for inflation. So, most commodities now are somewhere between 80% and 90% below their all-time high, especially adjusted for inflation.
So is this over? No. Copper and zinc may slow down for a while. We haven’t even really gotten started. Commodities have… my index has tripled… more than tripled.
I saw him on the Fox business block this weekend. He nailed the commodity move, and you have to respect his outlook. Needs to lose the bowtie, though.
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