What The Market Is Saying About The Fed

June 30, 2005 6 Comments

It’s ‘All eyes on the Fed’ again time.  And the market is telling the Fed that 3.5% is probably enough.  That would imply an end to the tightenings by the August Fed meeting. 

Fed Futures are looking between 3.5% and 3.75% by year end…

Fedfundsfutures_063005

Chart Courtesy BullandBearWise.com

In addition, the two-year Treasury bonds often "guide" the Fed as to what to do with the Target Fed Funds rate.  Currently, they have paused at 3.5% after "leading" the Fed higher for the past year.  If the two-year Treasury yield stays in this range, I would expect the Fed to stop raising rates in August. 

Fed_target_vs_two_year_1

6 thoughts on “What The Market Is Saying About The Fed”

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