On a slow day like today, its easy to come up with stupid trade ideas and this definitely fits the mold – short GOOG.
GOOG has already hit a DeMark Seq 13 last week and will hit a DeMark Combo 13 tomorrow if the stock doesn’t fall apart.
Chart Courtesy Bloomberg
The optimism is running high on GOOG as shown by the extreme number of call vs puts being traded in the past weeks…
Chart Courtesy Schaeffers Research
In addition, traders have become a bit overenthusiastic about the Internet sector, as measured by the RYDEX Internet fund. The bottom blue line shows the amount assets flowing into the fund. You can see that big spikes in assets are often correlated with a short term top.
Chart Courtesy Sentimentrader.com
In addition to the traders, the analysts are falling all over themselves to recommend GOOG. Twenty five analysts have Buys or Strong Buys on the stock. That begs the question, who is left to upgrade the stock on a pull back?
And finally, not that these things matter for a trade, the GOOG valuation looks a bit high vs YHOO on a Price to Sales basis (50% higher) and in line with YHOO on a P/E basis.
Chart Courtesy Baseline
The reason why I say this is a "stupid" idea for a trade is that it’s borne out of boredom. Every hedge fund with four PHDs on staff is short this stock because "no company can possibly be worth 60x earnings." And the DeMark indicators are notoriously early in strong uptrend stocks such as this. If I had a nickle for every time I saw a DeMark 13 on an internet stock during 1999, I’d be a billionaire. So while its fun dream about shorting a $285 stock and have it go back to $170, this won’t be a trade that I’ll be taking.
I predict a 60 to 70 point fall of Google by the end of this January 06