Martin Armstrong: Is It Time To Turn Out The Lights?

(Note: I accidentally published a prior edit of the essay on Sunday March 8th.  The following is the final edit.)

The following is an essay from Martin Armstrong dated February 19th, 2009.  I have taken the liberty to edit the essay.  Martin Armstrong occasionally throws complex ideas into his essays almost as a sidenote.  I have edited the essay to make it more direct and accessible for all readers and have done my best not to alter any of the content or ideas.  If you would like to read the essay in its full form, I have provided a link to it at the bottom of the essay.  

Is It Time To Turn Out The Lights? 

By Martin Armstrong

Please Register Your Email Address For Any Update News – ArmstrongEconomics@GMail.com.

Since the beginning of the year, everyone has expected either one of two outcomes: (1) The election of Barack Obama would spark a recovery and the economy would be saved by his stimulus package, or (2) we would see a major wave of rising interest rates to pay for the Obama spending-spree that would spark serious inflation. But there is a much darker side to these shallow views. To put it mildly, it may just be a far more complex outcome than anyone has dared to guess. We may be in the midst of a "Waterfall Effect" that could undermine the very structure of Western Civilization. Historically, it has always been the debt crisis that destroys the greatest plans of men and dictators.  This could be phase two of the collapse of Marxism.  After phase one reshaped Russia and China, phase two may mean that it is the United States' turn. 

Is it the Time to Turn out the Lights?

This Economic Depression is far more complex than meets the eye. I believe that the Investment Bankers, in their own greed, used the final days of the Bush Administration to try to grab as much as they could while there was an ex-Goldman Sachs boss in the driver seat. I believe they needed to scare Bush into giving them everything that they dreamed of, and Congress was stupid enough to hand-over a pile of cash with no strings attached. This scare tactic worked. The bankers got what they wanted and even settled scores by getting rid of their competition like Lehman. But in the process, they pricked the bubble in which everyone lived. They set in motion a collapse in confidence that is the critical key to a contraction.  Once people lose confidence, they get depressed which is why we call such events a “Depression."

This Depression has centered on the most vulnerable of markets – real estate. It is the least economic force of production, yet it is the most visible sign of wealth in the minds of the average person. People will hoard cash whenever they feel that wealth is impaired.

States are in crisis and their way of doing business is also facing a new reality. As the real estate base collapses, so does the tax base.  Unlike the Federal Government, the states cannot print cash without limit. What use to be safe like Muni-Bonds is no more. The end of borrowing for everything is now here.
 
Yet we are also reverting to the age old problem of Regional Capital Flows and disparities within each nation. This is a critical issue that is tearing Europe apart placing the Euro at risk. At the same time, the disparity among regions in the United states is percolating beneath the surface and is about ready to split the nation asunder.

The Disaster of One Size Fits All

Just prior to the formation of the Euro, I was giving numerous seminars on the subject and warning that the one-size-fits-all policy will not work and may be the undoing of the European Union. Some people believed that just because I was an American I was naturally pro-America. But that was certainly not true. The key warning I was illustrating at that time is starting to come to the surface. Let me make this perfectly clear. I believe Europe can survive and reverse the trend if it listens to reason!

Politicians have no long-term view because their self-interest is to merely win the next election. No one will run for office on a claim that they prevented a disaster. You just don’t know what could have happened! Just as President Obama is taking every possible wrong step that will ensure that this global economic disaster gets far worse, his advisers truly know nothing about history, trends or have any practical real world experience from the private sector to draw upon. How can we expect them to understand when such people have only lived within the bubble of government and convince themselves they have all the answers?

Call Money Rates 1870 Before there were central banks, the perpetual swings in the economies of the world rose and fell not in unity, but diversity according to the local economic mix. In the United states, these regional capital flows  created localized booms and busts. For example during the Gold Rush of California, inflation in that region was running at multiples of that on the East coast. There were even $50 gold coins being privately minted in California whereas the largest denomination in the east was $20. When the San Francisco 1906 Earthquake hit, the insurance companies were in the East and the claims were in the West. The flow of capital left cash shortages in the East that contributed to the Panic of 1907 causing call rates to rise to 125% on the NYSE. 

The analysis that followed the Panic of 1907 came to the realization that there had been a capital flow problem. The answer led to the creation of the Federal Reserve Bank in 1913 with its 12 branches. Why were there so many branches? What is not widely known today is that each branch operated independently. In other words, there could be 12 different interest rates. If cash was tight in California, that branch could raise rates by 1% and that would attract capital flows for investment.

The mistake of the Euro that is now starting to pull apart the entire system, is that the model used was that of the United states post-World War II. Because of Franklin Roosevelt and World War II, central power seemed to be the main goal. The independent status of the 12 branches was usurped into Washington and never given back. This usurpation of power completely altered the ability to manage the economy and thus, the Europeans based their model upon the mistakes of the United States. Just as there were regional distinctions in the United States, the same exists in Europe. The Euro is being torn apart by the ignorance of economic history.

The way to save the Euro before it is too late is to allow interest rates to float independently within each nation. This is necessary to allow capital to flow naturally to the regions that need it the most. Unless the Euro is fundamentally restructured, it is following the path of destruction that has been tearing apart the US economy not to mention many others.  For example, in Canada, the central bank was raising rates to fight real estate speculation in Toronto. At the same time, it was putting farmers and miners into bankruptcy in Vancouver. There can be no one-size fits-all economic policy. 

Outlook for the Euro

The Euro Monthly 2006The highest monthly closing for the Euro came in March 2008. The April high was exceeded slightly on July 15th, 2008 when the high was established at 1.5988 US. This is a clear double top that could yet be exceeded. The March 2008 highest monthly closing was in line with 2008.225, which was the first minor 'turning point after 2007.15 on the Economic Confidence Model where the US real estate peaked and made a major high that may last for several decades to come.

From the high in the Euro on July 15th, 2008, there was a bold collapse that, so far, constitutes a reaction amounting to a 3 month decline. While the Euro penetrated the low of 2007, it did hold its major closing support that remains at $1.26. A monthly closing in the Euro beneath this area would signal the end is near. For now, the Euro could still survive if the right steps are taken and Russia keeps its weapons harnessed. The greatest problem for the Euro long-term remains the geopolitical problems on the horizon in Russia, which still lives in the world of empire, rather than the age of production.

In order for the Euro to show some sign of strength, it must first accomplish a monthly closing back above $1.4215. This is the minimum threshold level from a technical perspective to show same sign of survivability. The next level of key monthly closing resistance will be at $1.4315. As long as the Euro remains below this level on a monthly closing basis, then a test of the major long-term support is still possible at $1. 1680. A monthly closing below that area and it will be very unlikely that the Euro will survive in its current form.

Currency Is Still The Key

British Pound 1919 - 1933We must understand that currency values may still prove to be the key. Often forgotten is the international and regional capital flows that dictate the overall trend and the outcome of what we face. The Free Market will always prevail. It even forced the collapse of Communism.  No matter how much politicians may want to bury it or call it a Republican dream, it cannot be suppressed. The chart to the right shows the British Pound between 1919 and 1934.  The currency clearly shows the decline of British power.  It fell from $7.50 in the 19th Century to about $5 for the start of the 20th and it has flirted with $1-$2 going into the 21st. No matter what system, the Free Markets always prevail as this now shows even during the Gold standard. This is a safety-valve that the currency absorbs economic stress in a complex relationship with interest rates. This is a dynamic between capital concentration and capital flow internationally.
 
Today, we have the same interesting trend emerging. Despite the fact that the Debt Crisis has emerged from the United States, or more correctly, the London office of AIG, capital is still fleeing to the dollar in this flight to quality. But how can there be a flight to the dollar that is a flight to quality in a rational world?

The underlying strength of the dollar is also geopolitical. From a conventional perspective, the United States is still a very difficult place to land troops. There is also the maturity factor. The dollar is one currency that has remained intact. If you have a note printed in 1934 or 1864, it is still legal tender. That cannot be said even for the British Pound.

Yet there is something more profound. So far, the United States remains the key Super Power and the largest economy. Hence, what we are really looking at is the similar effect that Rome had in ancient times followed by Constantinople. When the Roman Empire in the West fell in 476AD, the Byzantine Empire of the East became the leading world economy. Its gold coin the "solidus" became the world currency even in Western Europe when no other states existed with the economic power to issue gold coinage. The coin began to be called the "'byzant" much the way the dollar is called the "buck" or "greenback" in slang terms.

For better or worse, the dollar is still the reserve currency of the world. It may not deserve that status, but that is another story. There is only one primary world currency at a time.  The dollar may be humbled by internal stress and the political split of the nation and when that day comes, we will see it fall. For now, the world currencies have been few and far between. 
Reserve Currencies  

Silver Denarius of Julius Caesar Currency has always been a safety valve to relieve economic stress. This is not always understood, yet it is a vital component of global economics. When an economy comes under great stress where confidence collapses, people then hoard their cash. This is why Roosevelt confiscated gold, and it is why there was a Dark Age after the fall of Rome for there was no real capital flow nor banking, leverage, or borrowing – just hoarding. This drives the purchasing power of the currency higher (deflation) and when it declines, it does so against tangible assets (land, etc). The decline in the value of a currency is in reality a Free Market tax taking away wealth that is overstated. So currency can also be an indirect tax to compensate for the poor management of the state.

To illustrate the difference that capital concentration and capital flows will have on an economy, we need only look at the discount rate at the NY Federal Reserve between 1915-1933. Note that the worse economic decline was surely the 1929 Great Depression. Yet when we look at the real world effects, we come up with a different perspective.

NY Federal Reserve Discount Rate 1915The high at the NY Federal Reserve on the Discount Rate came during the Panic of 1919s aftermath – not the Panic of 1929. We can see the earlier high was 7%, yet in the Great Depression, the peak was only 6%. If we refer back to the Call Money chart from the NYSE, the peak was 1899 and in 1919 the high was 30% compared to 20% for the so called Roaring 1920s in 1929.

If the 1929 Crash was the worst in history and it was sparked by even shoe-shine boys speculating in stocks, then why did the Call Money rate reach the lowest level compared with every other crash going back to 1882? The answer is simple. Show me the Money!

The key to understanding the Great Depression is not speculation and Wall Street any more than what is going on today. There was currency crisis in 1931 that you can see illustrated by the British pound.  And England was the least European-nation affected. Yet the pound crashed and burned from $4.86 dropping to about $3.15.  It cannot be emphasized enough that the contagion spread then like today. All of Europe defaulted on its debt except Switzerland.  Britain went into a moratorium and eventually honored its debt. This created an intensive capital outflow from Europe to America. We can see that the Fed lowered interest rates (discount rate) from 6% to 1.5% very rapidly. It did not matter, for capital was still pouring into the US seeking a flight to quality driving US rates down, but driving the dollar to record highs. We can see that the British pound had fallen in the Panic of 1919 to $3.40, and recovered going into 1925. Therefore, despite lower interest rates in the US during the Great Depression compared to the Panic of 1919, the dollar rose to higher highs. So we can see that there is no linear direct relationship that can be drawn. This is a complex dynamic interrelationship that must be understood.

England Cuts Rate to Historic Low

One would have expected interest rates to rise where there is a Debt Crisis. Yet interest rates even in England have collapsed to new historical lows going back to 1694.  Indeed, most are now expecting interest rates in the United states to rise sharply in the face of Obama’s stimulus package. This is a rather simplistic view that we may not see unfold as many expect. This one-dimensional aspect of the problem is counter-balanced by the massive contraction in leverage at the core of the Great Depression of the 21st century.

It would appear that adding $1 trillion in spending would be inflationary and send interest rates higher. But this assumes that there is an alternative to investment not just domestically, but also internationally. We are also looking at a counter-trend causing the collapse in the avenues for capital to seek shelter. As I mentioned earlier, what use to be regarded as the safest bet – Municipal Bonds – for they were seen as backed by revenues, collapsed during the Great Depression. The City of Detroit defaulted on its bonds, but to be precise, it did eventually pay them off with much cheaper dollars in 1963.

Total Bonds Listed At Par Value on NYSE 1930s Another aspect of the Great Depression that has been lost in the details was that foreign nations, who defaulted on their debt, resulted in a collapse of the money supply in the United States. Back then, the investment banks sold these Bonds in small denominations to the average people. The irony of the Great Depression has been often hurried in history. Those who lost the most, tended to be the most conservative. Those who stayed away from the "risky" stock market, were still wiped out by the bond markets. For decades, there were groups of women who ware children whose family fortunes were wiped out by the collapse in the bond markets. Corp And Treasury Spread 1930s We can see from the above chart, the total amount of debt listed on the New York Stock Exchange exploded in 1928 and collapsed at the end of 1932. Another detail lost in history, the Fed lowered interest rates in 1925 in order to steer the capital flows to Europe. It was then presumed that lowering interest rates in the US would shift the capital flows and  relieve the crisis building in Europe. Yet the defaults in 1931 wiped out conservative investors who stayed away from stocks contributing to a collapse in US money supply by one-third.  We can see that the premium of AAA corporate debt over federal even reached a peak of more than 1.3% in 1932. The state and Municipal Debt also collapsed so the Flight To Quality did not subside until after 1932 and took place both domestically and internationally, not unlike what we are seeing again today.

The Waterfall Effect

The Waterfall Effect There are two primary different patterns of how markets collapse. The first kind is the speculative bubble.  Typical speculative bubbles end with a spike whereby a sharp rise goes exponential, followed by a sharp and steep decline.  The chart pattern appears like a heart-beat. This short-term panic typically does not lead to ruin. The spike formation is dramatic and highly volatile.

The far more dangerous pattern is the rolling over of an economy that is less dramatic, but does far more damage.  Suddenly you just wake-up and everything is changed.  This happened in China and Russia during 1989. There was no spike, just what I call the ''Waterfall Effect" that appears to be how a political state simply dies with no flare nor big bang. 

The greatest concern that we should have is the degree of volatility is off the charts. We are looking at nearly an outside reversal to the downside of the Euro on an annual basis! This degree of volatility is truly amazing on an annual level and has not been seen since 1933. Just look at the previous chart of the Pound. Note that in 1933, the Pound fell to new lows, but then reversed and even exceeded the $5 level, due to Roosevelt’s 60% devaluation of the dollar and the confiscation of gold domestically. The sheer level of volatility is clearly back to the days of the Great Depression.

The Rise of Volatility

I cannot stress enough that the level of volatility that we are experiencing during this financial crisis is just well beyond even that experienced during the early stages of the Great Depression and is more akin to the collapse of Rome. That is a stark comparison tells me this decline is nothing to fool around with.  However, the likelihood of either Europe or America following prudent economic policy to save our free economies is about as likely as me running for President.

Dow Industrials 1897 - 1937As we can easily see from the annual chart of the Dow covering the Crash of 1929, the decline does not reflect even an outside reversal in the first year of the decline. We can see that 1929 formed a spike high but it did not penetrate the low of 1928. The Dow Industrials did close lower than 1928, but it held the 1928 low

In 1930, the high remained below that of 1928, and it did penetrate that low and closed well below it. This provided a major annual sell signal and indeed we find the low 3 years from the 1929 high in line with the reaction rule duration of a maximum duration of 2 to 3 years.

When we look at the Dow Jones Industrials between 1897 and 1937, we actually do not find a single annual outside reversal to the downside until 1931. There was the Rich Man's Panic of 1903, the famous Panic of 1907, the Panic of 1919-21, the Panic of 1929 and then the Panic of 1937. Notice that none of these financial chaotic periods took place with the degree of volatility we have seen today, except 1937. The rise from the 1932 low into a 1937 high came with rising unemployment. Primarily, as gold was confiscated, capital was attracted back to stocks insofar as this afforded some tangible value for cash. The stock market became a hedge against the deliberate inflation that Roosevelt was creating. But keep in mind, Europe was still quite unstable economically and don’t forget that this economic instability also brought to power Adolf Hitler at the same time as Roosevelt. Change was the battle cry of politics in 1933.

Public/Private Confidence Wave

For years, I have warned that the greatest degree of volatility comes during a 51.6 year Private Confidence wave. This is a period that government, fearing losing power becomes most aggressive. For example, the Public Wave that peaked in 1671.75 was followed by a Private wave that was marked by tremendous upheaval including very serious spreading wars that included the early stages of revolution both in Britain that spilled over to Russia during 1689. This is the period of Oliver Cromwell, the beheading of Charles I, that all culminated in the South Sea. Bubble as well as the Mississippi Bubble both in 1720. This gives way to a Public Confidence wave that began in 1727.65. This wave reaches its peak in 1774.95 and that began the great period of revolution that overturned the idea of monarchy both in America and France. So we can see, we are now in a Private Confidence wave and the degree of volatility is certainly extremely high.

Call Money Rates 1870Looking at the call Money Chart, we can see that the pre-1913 period displays a much greater period of volatility. The end of the previous Public Confidence Wave peaked in 1878.15 and it bottomed in 1882.45. This is precisely the year we see the first spike to the upside with call Money Rates reaching the 30% level.

The Private Confidence wave marked the near bankruptcy of the US Treasury in 1896 and we can see that the major high in interest rates actually takes place in 1899 at nearly 200%. It is this Private Confidence Wave that peaked in 1929 that ended with the Great Depression.

The high degree of instability in 1937 was due to the fresh memories of the Great Depression. The press was filled with negative comments and the fear was that there would be another Depression. The fact that we can see the reflection of that degree of instability in 1937, illustrates that there was a deeply seated lack of confidence. This is the beginning of a Public wave where the Private wave peaked with 1929. Therefore, the growing lack of confidence in the private sector is reflected in the sharp volatility seen in 1937 compared to the previous panics.

The next 51.6 year cycle reached its peak 1981.35 marking the high in interest rates once again as the Government began to battle inflation due to its collapse of the Gold Standard in 1971. Hence, that Public Confidence wave peaked in 1981 giving rise to a new Private Wave.

Dow Jones Industrials Weekly 1929 - 1932Even when we look at a weekly chart of the decline and fall of the Dow Jones Industrials during the Great Depression, although this was about a 90% decline in three years, it was still very orderly from a technical analysis perspective. From the initial low that was made from the September 1929 high, there was about a 50% recovery as the Dow rose from about 200 to about 300. We do not see even this degree of strength in the current trend. To match that reaction rally, the Dow would have had to rally to 11,000. The first decline from the 1929 high was about 48%. So far, the decline from 14,198 to about 7,400 was also about 47.8%. Yet the recovery is nowhere in sight. Even the election of Obama has had virtually no impact upon the whole world economy.

Waterfall Effect Dow JonesIf we look at the current monthly chart of the Dow Jones Industrials, we see a very different sort of pattern from 1929. The main panic decline in 1929 took place in 3 months from the major high, with a 5 month reaction recovery from about 200 to 300. What we are confronted with currently, is what I have throughout the years defined as the "Waterfall Effect" that is a complete type of collapse from what you might call Exhaustion following a curved decline. Penetrating the Nov. low, could lead to a drop to 4,000 by June 2009 or September 2009.

Throughout the years of research covering all major economies and civilizations back to the beginning of recorded time, what has always distinguished the end of an era is how the decline unfolds. Sharp spike drops are indicative of corrections within a long-term trend that ultimately survives. When we see the “Waterfall Effect" the decline tends to mark the end of that organized state as we once knew it. 

We are confronted with a major shift that could lead to the same mistakes that caused the fall of Byzantium and destroyed individual liberty and capitalism. We are in a battle that may be far greater than anyone dares to think. The fall of China and Russia was phase one of the collapse of Marxism. We may be facing the fall of Socialism in a battle to the end.

In building databases of all civilizations and using computers to correlate both global interactions and domestic trends, there are certainties that do emerge. It is clear that civilization emerges time and again because mankind is a social animal and seeks the benefit of banning together in sort of a tribe of nations. But there is also the downside, and that is that civilization creates leaders and the self-interest of those in power always is pitted against its own people to exercise and extend its own powers.

Civilization is destroyed by the inability of all governments no matter the form it may assume, to spend only what it earns. Every state in history has fallen into a Debt Crisis and that has always led ultimately to higher taxes. In the Byzantine Empire, the taxes became so outrageous, they forced the average person to become serfs seeking shelter and to retain a portion of their crops for protection from the state. It was taxation that created feudalism, drove people from the cities to the suburbs, and just led to the Waterfall Effect whereby the state became so weak, it could no longer defend itself or sustain its economy. Taxation destroyed civilization and capitalism.

This "Waterfall Effect" was evident also in the Roman economy going into the full collapse that took place between 253 and 266 AD in just 13 years out of 1,000. The economic decline that changes the face of society forever, takes place in the shortest amount of time. The likelihood of Western Society listening before it is too late, is nil!

The End Of Real Estate

This economy peaked with real estate precisely at 2007.15. The stock market made a brief tally thereafter, but it was not sustained. However, American real estate has been an unrealistic market funded purely by debt that strangely produces no real national wealth. Purchasing a house creates dead capital. It does not create jobs after its construction, yet consumes capital through financing. Because mortgages have been available for 30 years, the price of a home is significantly higher than in other nations where there is no such a deep market available for borrowing.

Real Estate has been hailed as the greatest investment of all time – at least post-World War II. But the wealth created by real estate is mainly an illusion created by currency movements.  During the 1970s, a Porsche 924 cost as little as $10,000. By 1980, a Porsche was going for more than $50,000. People saw foreign cars as a good "investment” because you could drive them around for two years, and still get your money back. The same thing took place in England in 1985. A Ferrari that was $50,000 in the US, could suddenly be purchased for $30,000 in Britain when the Pound fell nearly to par with the dollar – $1.03. Because Ferrari could not afford to sell their cars in England at a substantial discount, they raised the price of the car to 40,000 pounds. However, the pound then rallied back to nearly $2 as the G-5, formed in 1985, manipulated the dollar lower by 40% to increase trade. Suddenly, that same Ferrari was now selling for nearly $80,000.

The point I am illustrating with the European sports car example is that the fluctuations in currency of 30-40% in a short time period, created the illusion that the cars were the real investment. However, the value of the car was related to the indirect swings in the value of currency. The rise in foreign car values throughout the 1978 instilled the image in American minds that a good German car held its value and was thus better than an American car. This image, created by the decline in the dollar after 1971, produced the age of inflation added to by OPEC. This period in time also created the "brand" image for foreign cars.  This did more to destroy the American car industry than any other event.

What we must also come face-to-face with, is that the same source of capital appreciation in foreign cars caused by the decline in the value of the dollar, has been the steadfast momentum behind Real Estate. A home purchased in 1955 for $14,000 at the peak in 2007 rose to $300,000 on average.  The question becomes, after excessive property taxes, does real estate really provide a good long-term investment? Most would just answer yes. But you are being paid with dollars that have far less in purchasing value. Add up the taxes paid, and you find out in real net terms, the same fluctuations in currency that make cars appear to be investments, do the same to housing.

Of course, there are segments of the real estate market which outperform the drop in currency and exceed other areas by 50% or more in "capital appreciation."  This is the natural business cycle that takes place. You will notice that the rise in real estate after a setback, starts typically in the City. It spreads from that center to the less central portions of the city, and then to the suburbs. As the suburbs are still rising, you will begin to see the core city district peak. That will be the first sign that the cycle is over. This manner in how real estate rises and falls was something that emerged from our studies at Princeton Economics monitoring real estate trend from Europe, America, Asia, and Australia. It always was the same pattern.

But what if the current economic decline is running much deeper and is along the lines of the Great Depression insofar as the total collapse in real estate values? Today, the cycle is far more volatile because of the widespread loans on real estate that did not exist during the Great Depression. The length of debt on mortgages post-World war II is far greater than what existed in anytime during the past. As banks were willing to lend for 30 years, it drove the price of housing up to meet the available cash. If there were no mortgages and property could trade only for cash, the value would drop substantially. So it has been the availability of money that has also accelerated the rise and fall in the value of real estate.

It was the S&P Real Estate Index that peaked with the Economic Confidence Model on 2007.15. This is the target market that will see the greatest fall. We are now facing a very serious possibility that the decline in real estate may not be over for at least 4.3 years into 2011, but the more likely scenario of a minimum of 10 years with the outside shot it will never again be an "investment" as we know it.

How could real estate decline for so long? The two contracting factors that are conspiring against real estate are (1) the Debt Crisis cutting off available capital to keep the bubble expanding, and more importantly, (2) the collapse in state revenues. The states and municipal districts rely upon property taxes. The greater the mortgage crisis, the greater the foreclosures, and that suspends the tax revenues as well. This causes the collapse in state and local revenues forcing states to raise taxes even higher and this is precisely the combination of a debt crisis that ends societies and has been the destroyer of civilization. When it goes to extremes as it did in Byzantium, it even destroyed capitalism reducing the average worker into a peasant who was forced to sell himself, his family, and future children into servitude just to survive.

Is Gold Trying To Speak?

Gold Monthly 2009 Gold has been the best performing investment on the board. It has continued to make new highs in all currencies but the dollar, but even there it is holding on like a politician in his right to control the lives of others. While production of gold was expanding dramatically going into the 1980 high of $875, today, South African production has been dropping like a stone. South Africa is no longer the leading producer in gold and just as demand is rising, the production is falling.  

From a pure technical view, the breakout line from the 1999 low stood precisely at $718 last October, and provided the closing support. Once exceeded, it was penetrated 601 y during Sept/Oct of 2006 on a monthly closing basis and has held nicely for this '08 reaction low. This technical line moves up to about $810 by the end of 2010. Near-term, if we see a real Waterfall Effect in the Dow Jones Industrials going into June 2009 where a collapse takes place back to the 4,000 area, we may see a corresponding high or a major key turning point in gold also for June 2009. This does not appear to be the major or high, but we may see a shocking punch upward with a next thrust. If gold breaks out to new highs going into June 2009 as the now makes a major low, there could be a 5 month reaction low forming by November 2009, with a rally thereafter into about April 2011 for the intraday high, but leaving 2010 as the highest close annually. Gold would then reverse perhaps, but this may be due to Government intervention at that point in time.

Gold still appears to be headed to at least the $2,500 level by 2011. Exceeding that area before the end of 2009, would open the door to a potential rally even up to the $5,000 level. Please keep in mind, this is a relative forecast. That means the dollar would be little of its former self. What we are honestly talking about is the collapse of our Governmental infrastructure not so different from Russia. In plain words, Russia could no longer sustain its control of the economy because it was broke. We are approaching the same problem. Just because we have been always able to borrow and never worry about what would happen when the day comes that the well is dry, does not mean we have bottomless pit. A very minor technical projection shows resistance for gold scaling in from the 1 ,100 to 1,200 level for 2009. Breaking through this technical resistance area will signal that we are in a very serious economic implosion.

The United States' Turn

The reverse side of the Seal of the United States has an interesting Latin saving that was part of our inheritance from the Founding Fathers. They recorded their belief in the history of man – Novus ordo seclorum. What they recorded there was what they believed they were creating – a new cycle of the ages. The men who had the courage to stand against the tyranny of Government, believed that the American Revolution was a dawn of a new age where the cycle of fortune had completed its revolution and it was now Just time to establish a new world order without kings. And what was the saying that more than any other reflected their wisdom?

No Taxation Without Representation!

Thomas Jefferson believed in cycles. He doubted that the United States would even survive beyond 100 years. He was correct. The dream the Founding Fathers created fell with the passage of the Income Tax in 1909 that required amending the Constitution to say, Jefferson, we disagree and it shall no longer be in our people and God that we believe, but in the self-interest of Government and Karl Marx. The prohibition against direct taxation was eliminated in 1913. With that came uncontrollable borrowing, spending that always exceeded revenues, and interest paid to foreign lands no different that Spain to its Italian bankers that wiped out both nations and shifted the core economy in Europe to the North, eagerly seized by the Dutch.  

Jefferson even believed that revolution was a necessary part of the long-term cycle for he wrote that the Tree of Liberty required to be fed with the blood of tyrants and patriots. We have so far avoided that outcome. But the cycle is still very young.

I am not trying to yell "fire" in a crowded theatre. I believe that our future remains ours. History repeats because we ignore the lessons it offers. If we understand the possibilities and how things fall apart, we can exercise a choice and correct them. To look into the flame and know that its power to burn exists, does not mean we have to stick our finger into it just to see.

We are standing on the edge of a cliff in the middle of nowhere. The hatred that spilled out of the mouth of Karl Marx has led to this battle between freedom and the control of individuals that is capitalism vs. Communism/Socialism. We must ask our politicians a very important question – Quo Vadis? (Where are you going?) To date, the answers have been more of a riddle, or in Latin – lucus a non lucendo. In other words, we get a paradoxical explanation that is of something that is the opposite of what it suggests. What we must fear the most, is also what the Romans called – lex talionis – the law of retribution. We must now also ask, quis eustodiet ipos custdes? (who shall guard the guardians?)

Laissez faire (doctrine that opposes government intervention) is dead in the current political discussion. We will not hear this again until Western Civilization collapses. The idea of smaller government and the dream of Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Franklin, James Madison and others, has expired and vanished into the night suffering what Horace called – Pallida Moors – the pale death. Any solution that somehow excludes government, will never be even attempted. What Marx failed to realize was there was never a dramatic battle between the classes.  It has always been a battle between Government and the people. No matter what happens, Government will always blame the private sector and never admit mistakes. Out of self-interest, it will hunt down those in the private sector to sacrifice in the public square.

This Economic Depression is unstoppable, regardless what Government says. I remain nil admirari – unimpressed with the nonsense of the stimulus package. Even if it did work, by the time it had any effect, it would be election time. Jobs are not created out of thin air. It requires something different than the private sector working for government. It requires a demand and confidence that increasing production will find a willing buyer. Government policy is to hire, but the quality of the work means nothing.

Unless we start to get sane people with real live experience outside of the governmental bubbles, we may see the total meltdown of western civilization. Everyone will then blame the next guy which will lead to war. Already both Russia and China blame the global meltdown on the United States. This is perhaps rightly so since the legal system is so corrupt, regulators like the SEC and CFTC can be bought easily since the people they were to regulate, can hire them as well. No politician can act in such an unethical manner. Yet this is why we have the problems we do now because those Investment Bankers, not Wall Street brokers, have been manipulating the system. It worked so long, we forgot what real "free" market was all about. Just look back at how many Secretaries of the Treasury were ex-Goldman Sachs chairmen.

Unless we restructure the taxes and restore our international competitiveness, jobs will continue to leave. Unless tort reform is imposed, there will never be an affordable national healthcare service. Even corporations can no longer afford to pay the benefits. States and cities are starting to implode because they have promised much to workers, but always ran their own Ponzi schemes taking money currently to pay past obligations. We are facing a harsh reality that governments have expanded assuming resources would always be there, but that day has now arrived. Horace also once said:

naturam expellas furca, tamen usque recurret
(Horace 65-8 BCe)

Horace said though you may drive nature out with a pitchfork, she will keep caning back. The same can be said of the nature of mankind. We can cling to Marxism for it points the fingers at the so called rich who are always defined as the neighbors who just have a little more than me. Socialism is a form of Marxism that Western politicians have used to further their own power.  Socialism created the illusion that we can create the benefits of civilization and cooperative alliances without destroying our liberty.

We are on the edge where the way of life may be altered forever. We must open the door to all solutions and judge our future without bias and prejudice. It is time we recognize Marxism for what it is – the most dangerous theory of all time that may destroy now western Civilization. The more Byzantium could not cover its debts, the more it became aggressive against its own people that in the end, destroyed capitalism and freedom itself. Marx gave us the only alternative to capitalism, and that he called Communism that was just a false dream of Utopia - everyone works for the government, the government takes care of everyone, and in the process, you not merely sell your soul, you give up your right to be an individual. The Western culture has flirted with Marxism because politicians see the power belongs to them. Socialism is no different, for it is trying to be just a little-bit pregnant. It still involves centralized planning of the economy that cannot be done by people who have never worked in the real world.

We must stop the bullshit!  We must open our minds and understand the nature of mankind cannot be altered by passing laws. Marx is dead, and his ideas have to be allowed to die. The class-warfare must stop.

Ironically, China has no debt, nor does it have an income tax. Yet China has been exploding in economic growth rising to the second largest economy faster that the United states ever did. This is part of the cycle of volatility. The very design of the Founding Fathers is by default alive and well. All China has to do, is pay attention on domestic growth and expansion, and it is ready to replace the West and assume its historic moment to emerge as the center of the world economy. China has rejected Marx. It is now our turn to learn the same lesson.

Download turnoutlights209.pdf (1498.1K)

341 thoughts on “Martin Armstrong: Is It Time To Turn Out The Lights?”

  1. Hello,

    China does have an income tax, although it is not religiously paid by most people, especially those with low incomes (ie almost all people). Foreign workers (me) and high-income Chinese workers are increasingly forced to pay. Also don’t be so sure about China rejecting Marx – they cannot leap into the role of global hegemon because they are hamstrung by their own population’s size and the sheer amount of inertia it creates. And they too are attempting to enact entitlement programs and this and that to keep people happy. China is on an upswing in historical terms, no question about it, but ‘domestic growth and expansion’ is easier said than done.

    I enjoy these thought-provoking essays.

    Cheers,

    Michael

  2. It could very well be cognitive dissonance, but I always like what Martin has to say. His knowledge of economic history is unparalleled. It always annoys me when I hear someone say that now is unlike any period in the past. They then offer no justification–but it sure sounds good! In truth, it’s simply unlike any period they can recall because they haven’t studied history. To them, history goes back to the 70s at most. It’s the last bad period for most living Americans. It’s especially interesting to see how people reacted before and compare it to how they’re acting now.

    Personally, I don’t think we’re tottering on the edge, though it may feel like it. The Western world is clearly indebted. But is it worse–relative to assets–than prior civilizations that cratered shortly thereafter? America is still rich with assets to liquidate. If they were liquidated AND we still couldn’t service the remaining debt, then we’d be bankrupt. We’re far from there. Once again, people are realizing they can get by on much less. This will not help the economy in the short run, but it will in the long run.

    I do think this country is ultimately doomed if it continues down its current path of military domination and social service expansion. It’ll eventually eat away all of our savings. Then, most likely, an even greater country will rise. That’s been the lesson of history.

  3. Martin Armstrong is one of the most thought provoking individuals in the world today.His analysis will curry no favour,no matter who is in power.Hopefully I can shelter whatever little money I have with his analysis.

    Best wishes Martin.

  4. Perhaps Margaret Thatcher said it best: “The problem with Socialism is that sooner or later you run out of other peoples money”

  5. Outstanding and thought-provoking article. I would like to see a bit more weight given to the baby-boomer demographic that will also be a large strain on our economy in the coming decades.

  6. Yes, China has income tax but it is very low relative to Western countries.

    You are right about China being held back by the inertia of its huge population.

    China is clearly on the upswing now. It probably has another twenty or thirty good years. After that, its problems will come to bear, and China’s problems are much much bigger than the USA.

    China’s problems are ecological and environmental. 1.4 billion people waiting to become middle-class consumers. Sustainability is a problem here. Shortage of natural resources, including clean air and water, is the problem.

    Imagine 1.4 billion people all wanting to own a car. Scary.

    Thought provoking stuff from Martin Armstrong.
    Wish he will be released soon.

    ” China does have an income tax, although it is not religiously paid by most people, especially those with low incomes (ie almost all people). Foreign workers (me) and high-income Chinese workers are increasingly forced to pay. Michael”

  7. Mr. Martin Armstrong, really interesting outlook, only wrong about Marxism. The age opening these years will be the triumph of Marx and Lenin. Their work was not in favour of the State, but in favour of the collapse of the State, thanks to Revolution. The State is the biggest among capitalists, and every marxist knows that communism is the fall of capitalism and the consequent fall of the States, which serve as the superstructures created by capitalists to stick with their interests when free markets fail, and let the proletariat (the working people) to pay the price.
    When people, during or after next World War III, will understand that (as during October Revolution in Russia), they’ll hang capitalists, destroy the State and ‘ll edificate the communism, the social and economic system where workers ‘ll receive the whole product of their work, and exploitment be banned.

  8. Marx was bankrolled by Wall Street bankers while he was writing his works about communism. Don’t think for a minute that those very same characters ultimately stood to benefit the most from the inception of communism. If you still believe in that ideology then you are hideously brainwashed into worshipping those whom would enslave you. Name a SINGLE so-called communist nation that DIDN’T become a corrupt, centralized police state. You can’t. That’s because communism’s sloganeering is just another form of propaganda. In real life it is all about stealing more efficiently the production of the workers it claims to be saving in order to benefit an elite group of rulers – the party.

  9. Dear A.Magnus, you’re confusing ideology with science. Several nations in the past thrieved through communist ideology, but were capitalist in facts. Such ideologies (like free-market ideologies) had a key-role in enrolling entire populations to sacrifice and fight against enemy bourgeoises.
    URSS, China, and so on, all of them being nations economically based on state-capitalism: salary, banks, money, market, you can find regularly all these characteristics, and this is not communism. Communism, as Marx and Engels teached us, is the social-economic formation that will substitute capitalism, salary, banks, money, and market. Communism is a program for the future, not for the present. Lenin never said that he edificated (…)

  10. Dear A.Magnus, you’re confusing ideology with science. Several nations in the past thrieved through communist ideology, but were capitalist in facts. Such ideologies (like free-market ideologies) had a key-role in enrolling entire populations to sacrifice and fight against enemy bourgeoises.
    URSS, China, and so on, all of them being nations economically based on state-capitalism: salary, banks, money, market, you can find regularly all these characteristics, and this is not communism. Communism, as Marx and Engels teached us, is the social-economic formation that will substitute capitalism, salary, banks, money, and market. Communism is a program for the future, not for the present. Lenin never said that he edificated (…)

  11. Dear A.Magnus, you’re confusing ideology with science. Several nations in the past thrieved through communist ideology, but were capitalist in facts. Such ideologies (like free-market ideologies) had a key-role in enrolling entire populations to sacrifice and fight against enemy bourgeoises.
    URSS, China, and so on, all of them being nations economically based on state-capitalism: salary, banks, money, market, you can find regularly all these characteristics, and this is not communism. Communism, as Marx and Engels teached us, is the social-economic formation that will substitute capitalism, salary, banks, money, and market. Communism is a program for the future, not for the present. Lenin never said that he edificated (…)

  12. (…) communism, he said he made the state-capitalism. Stalin said he edificated communism, but Stalin killed all Lenin companions, killed all the communists, and tenth of millions workers. Italian communist Amadeo Bordiga was the first to aknowledge this reality. Communism is not propaganda. It is a science. A science predicting that next years, free-market capitalism and state capitalism, unable to escape the overproduction crisis, the collapse of profit rates and the deflation-inflation monsters, will collapse under major world wars between rising superpowers. Only a coordinated world workers’ organization, such Lenin’ Third International, could succeed in stopping the massacre, hanging capitalists and creating a new order where classes will be abolished.

  13. “When it goes to extremes as it did in Byzantium, it even destroyed capitalism reducing the average worker into a peasant who was forced to sell himself, his family, and future children into servitude just to survive.”

    So what we are looking at here is opposites. The worst situation possible is as stated above where the majority actually live in serfdom. I believe the opposite of this has never happened. Nowhere in my search through the history books have I ever found a country or even a province or a small district where every one living there legally owned their own body and that legal right of ownership was protected by actual law or by others through tradition. Even the founding fathers possibly created one of the freest states ever they could not add that right to the Bill of Rights simply because theirs was a slave economy. Though Madison possibly made the 9th Amendment to allow for its later addition.

    Unless the right of all people to own their own body and do what they want TO that body is sacrosanct then governments will always inflate and end up terrorizing their people through such blunt instruments as taxation and fiat currencies. Probably only by EVERYONE being legally responsible for themselves can the threat of Marxism/Fascism/Socialism and any other form of Nanny Statism be removed.

    This has to start with the individual believing that they own their own body and being prepared to fight to protect that right for themselves and everyone else, even people they don’t like. Unless they do that serfdom has an opportunity to return. Slavery in the USA is still used in most prisons and is protected by the 13th Amendment. Remove the second half of that amendment which allows for the creation of slaves and the US could possibly survive otherwise it is doomed to follow every other failed fairy tale state that practised selective slavery and vanish into the ether.

    Hard to be believe that one little thing like ownership of your own body should stop governments from becoming malignant.

  14. The fascination with Red China and its rise to power is interesting being that free thinking is not allowed hence ingenuity is stifled. Without the inclination of free will due to government control and relying on outside initiative to drive ideas and productivity, I don’t see how the working class of Red China can inspire itself to new heights.

    All Countries consist of hard working people, whether they can attain entrepreneurial status that is unabridged of their governments’ control is another matter altogether.

    Reminds me of the futility of it all unless the proper rewards of the ‘pursuit of happiness’ can be guaranteed or the reaping of rewards from one’s own goals ends up in the collective’s control.

    The greatness of the whole of a people should not be assessed by a controlling body or a running in place results.

    I’m think’in a glass ceiling with a rising water table, something has to give.

  15. Mr. Armstrong,

    I would greatly appreciate it if you would please take the time to respond to my email.

    Would you please explain if you are anticipating 4/23/09 (or is it 4/19/09)to be:

    An inflection point in the bear market, resulting in a rally and a new bull market, or
    An acceleration in the current bear market leading to a decline with greater velocity into 6/18/11?

    Thank you

  16. A little socialism leavens the whole bread. Nearly every cent of Social Security, AFDC, Food Stamps, Medi-Cal and Medicaid payment money (from taxes) is returned to local economies within thirty days. Small businesss owners, groceries, utilities, energy companies, hospitals, doctors, churches, mechanics, etc., all receive this great recycling of money and our communities survive.

    Prop 13, in California, (and like laws other states,) has destroyed
    our state’s financial base. It disordered our relatively calm functioning. Fortunately, Americans saw beyond the demonization hype of the no-taxation folk and held their second tea party in November, when the Republicans were thrown overboard.

  17. Well its Nov and dow has’nt gone to 4-5 k. But gold surely has hit new highs to 1050. I have to say Martin at least got the gold prediction right. Reading Martin Armstrong, I always feel I need a phd in economics to get the theories he is pointing out. for the future, I am looking for complex scenario that martin pointed out. Probably commodities going on a bull run till 2011, while equities staying in a range.

  18. I read this article in late spring 2009. It is a great article and confirmed much of my own research. Over the summer and fall of 2009 I was amazed to read his other articles on Byzantium and Justinian, The knights templars, etc. This all lines up on my long term civilization turning points.

    I reproduced portions of martins PI cycle years ago. And have since created my own fractal based on the Law of Octaves. In responce to publishing my western civilization article to a few people last spring one of them forwarded this article to me. This led to my civilizationspeak article. I have decided to release them publicly. Along with a new one I wrote. Here are the links in reverse order.

    http://www.classicsoftware.com/signalspace/civilizationsfuture.htm

    http://www.classicsoftware.com/signalspace/westerncivilization.htm

    http://www.classicsoftware.com/signalspace/civilizationspeak.htm

    http://www.classicsoftware.com/signalspace/newcycle.htm

    The newcycle is the longest and was written in the fall of 2008. Most everything in it has come to pass though and it is still relavent.

    The big western civilization chart can be easily read in light of Martins work.

    Ed Moran
    Signalspace, Inc.

  19. To illustrate the difference that capital concentration and capital flows will have on an economy, we need only look at the discount rate at the NY Federal Reserve between 1915-1933.

  20. I am an African immigrant living in Chicago. I was really trilled when i heard all your benevolence, giving your clothing to charity. What a God blessed heart!!!!
    This is my request: My brother is expecting a set of fraternal twin in Africa, can you please donate your twin used clothing to me so i send them to him?
    God bless you as you continue you life.

  21. As a teenager, Armstrong worked at a rare stamp and coin dealership and became a millionaire at age 15. Then he opened his own store at age 21. After studying historical gold prices, he developed a cyclical theory of commodity prices and began a company, Economic Consultants of Princeton.

  22. During that time he developed a financial prediction model called the “pi-cycle model” and published long term forecasts which are still monitored by the financial press. In the United Kingdom, for example, a popular financial magazine Money Week published an article on Martin Armstrong on March 27, 2007, titled “The strange case of the jailed market genius”.

  23. Hallo, ich kam durch Zufall auf diese Seite und möchte einen netten Gruß hinterlassen. Ich würde mich freuen, wenn ihr auf meiner Homepage auch einmal vorbei schauen würdet! Vielleicht wollt ihr einmal auf Sylt Westerland oder an der Ostsee Urlaub machen?! Wir haben dort sehr schöne Meerblickwohnungen. Vielleicht bis bald einmal!
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  24. Martin Armstrong is one of the most thought provoking individuals in the world today.His analysis will curry no favour,no matter who is in power.Hopefully I can shelter whatever little money I have with his analysis.

  25. As a teenager, Armstrong worked at a rare stamp and coin dealership and became a millionaire at age 15. Then he opened his own store at age 21. After studying historical gold prices, he developed a cyclical theory of commodity prices and began a company, Economic Consultants of Princeton.

  26. A little socialism leavens the whole bread. Nearly every cent of Social Security, AFDC, Food Stamps, Medi-Cal and Medicaid payment money (from taxes) is returned to local economies within thirty days. Small businesss owners, groceries, utilities, energy companies, hospitals, doctors, churches, mechanics, etc., all receive this great recycling of money and our communities survive.

    Prop 13, in California, (and like laws other states,) has destroyed
    our state’s financial base. It disordered our relatively calm functioning. Fortunately, Americans saw beyond the demonization hype of the no-taxation folk and held their second tea party in November, when the Republicans were thrown overboard.

  27. A little socialism leavens the whole bread. Nearly every cent of Social Security, AFDC, Food Stamps, Medi-Cal and Medicaid payment money (from taxes) is returned to local economies within thirty days. Small businesss owners, groceries, utilities, energy companies, hospitals, doctors, churches, mechanics, etc., all receive this great recycling of money and our communities survive.

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  29. A little socialism leavens the whole bread. Nearly every cent of Social Security, AFDC, Food Stamps, Medi-Cal and Medicaid payment money (from taxes) is returned to local economies within thirty days. Small businesss owners, groceries, utilities, energy companies, hospitals, doctors, churches, mechanics, etc., all receive this great recycling of money and our communities survive.

  30. Unless we restructure the taxes and restore our international competitiveness, jobs will continue to leave. Unless tort reform is imposed, there will never be an affordable national healthcare service

  31. As a teenager, Armstrong worked at a rare stamp and coin dealership and became a millionaire at age 15. Then he opened his own store at age 21. After studying historical gold prices, he developed a cyclical theory of commodity prices and began a company, Economic Consultants of Princeton.

  32. To illustrate the difference that capital concentration and capital flows will have on an economy, we need only look at the discount rate at the NY Federal Reserve between 1915-1933.

  33. I am an African immigrant living in Chicago. I was really trilled when i heard all your benevolence, giving your clothing to charity. What a God blessed heart!!!!
    This is my request: My brother is expecting a set of fraternal twin in Africa, can you please donate your twin used clothing to me so i send them to him?
    God bless you as you continue you life.

  34. As a teenager, Armstrong worked at a rare stamp and coin dealership and became a millionaire at age 15. Then he opened his own store at age 21. After studying historical gold prices, he developed a cyclical theory of commodity prices and began a company, Economic Consultants of Princeton.

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    Well mannered, warm and friendly staff, as well as a fantastic number of structures (however We obtained acquire since match I had created earlier seen somewhere else wasn’t in stock, so that they purchased them to me And also at a greater cost). Doctor. E ended up being very good, and was very comprehensive in the examination and description of my personal prescribed. There isn’t any stress upon up-charges either. Generate. Okay encouraged the actual anti-glare covering (that i wanted at any rate) understanding that has been that will. Now i’m therefore happy I chose to visit below.
    We returned Five days later to pick up (wonderful turn-around considering that they to acquire the actual sun shades individually) and also the spectacles ended up in shape expertly. Completely encouraged!
    Generate. Nited kingdom notifys you anything that he has been carrying out AS he is doing it. Being a doctor-visit-hater, I really understand why. We’ve didn’t have a watch medical doctor that was because communicative while Doctor. K. This person need to assist in trainings in order to optomawhatevers regarding how to provide top-notch bedside fashion. He has so good.

    Right after my personal very thorough vision assessment, Doctor. Nited kingdom. inquired about some questions about some tips i was looking for during my fresh glasses, and then hand-picked 4 twos in which satisfied my personal standards. Me personally, staying the actual jackass that I am, ended up being like “pffft Now i’m going to wander close to and look at these various other cups due to there being absolutely no way that will any person can determine what I need based on just wondering me a couple of questions”. Do your favor [and in addition save yourself with regards to a half hour] and also TRUST This specific MAN. We ended up seeking the 1st set which he selected personally. Of course. I have by no means inside my existence had an eye fixed medical doctor invest time to assist me to find my personal cups. And, as he was required to leave the revenue ground to be able to do an exam about yet another affected individual, one other employee who labored your foyer ended up being very useful along with friendly.

    We’ve currently called a few involving our coworkers in order to Generate. Nited kingdom from WVA, and may continue doing therefore. You’ll find very few health-related companies upon Howl that have an ideal score, this also dude is one kind of ’em.

  175. There’s not much to say about this retailer but one particular term…gorgeous. As soon as you enter the shop, you’re reminded as to why they have some of the best designer luggage on the industry. I say this due to the fact the store’s interior delivers a basic decor [b][url=http://www.expresslouisvuitton.com]lv handbags[/url][/b], related to no matter how many new luggage/organizations strike the vogue scene, the monogram luggage will constantly possess that basic flair.

    I arrived by this area to see the inside and just get an knowledge of the keep ahead of I produced a buy for my darling girlfriend. She wouldn’t ever let me to devote this considerably on her if I gave her a heads up, but a good lady warrants it all. I will buy a bag for her from LV as long as they carry on planning tasty objects. What I enjoy most right here in comparison to other makes on 5th avenue, etc…the buyer assistance. I say [b][url=http://www.louisvuittonloveyou.com]louisvuitton[/url%5D%5B/b%5D due to the fact in comparison to the LV retailer positioned inside Macy’s at Herald Square, you are not handled like you really don’t belong since of skin color. Indeed, I went there…I threw the “Race” card and for good reason. Irregardless how I carry myself or how my organization has positioned me to dress, it would seem security nevertheless really feel I don’t belong. This is 1 of the reasons I won’t pay a visit to the thirty fourth Road spot. I get pleasure from safety guards assuming how considerably I can afford by the color of my pores and skin, as opposed to what’s inside my bank account.
    [url=http://www.louisvuittonunlimited.com][img]http://www.louisvuittonunlimited.com/louisvuittonbanner.jpg%5B/img%5D%5B/url%5D
    Nonetheless, this spot welcomed me with open up arms and not like a second fee citizen. Below, only my dollars issue, not the colour of my skin. And in the marketplace for designer items, shouldn’t that be the only thing of issue anyway? After producing my very first go to below in 2008, I can see why girls adore LV luggage and it’s definitely why I will carry on purchasing [b][url=http://www.louisvuittonbop.com]louis vuitton[/url][/b] for my girlfriend.
    Beautiful massive shop!! Drool!! Also undesirable it isn’t worth it for a Canadian to purchase below. We get Louis Vuitton goods for 5-ten% cheaper than US merchants. And paying duty isn’t really worth it possibly. But this flagship store is very great. They have all the good ostrich leather-based items. It’s comparable to the retailers in Hong Kong.
    My sister and I arrived in right here to acquire matching baggage and we felt as if were had been in a Chinese subway battling for an eggroll.

    Helpful salespeople, but its so crowded, that the line to acquire was fifteen minutes prolonged… we left and will buy them from LA.

    Also, there ended up no embossing or engraving solutions presented like the merchants in California… unusual.
    The assistance is phenomenal. The salesperson actually did the greatest he can to try out to accomodate. Despite the fact that the suit of my desires ended up becoming a little bit as well huge, I walked out satisfied and content.
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    LV bags are state of the artwork. Definitely, they appear overpriced but say that in ten, twenty, thirty years (I bet you’ll still have your previous LV purse). No other model can conquer the high quality.
    Situated on the very first ground of Bloomingdales flagship keep on 3rd Avenue (corner of East 57th Road), this Louis Vuitton boutique is 1 of the number of consignment boutique places that the model has found in a section store in the New York Metropolitan place (the other two places are Macy’s Herald Sq. flagship store and Macy’s Backyard Town retailer). Amazing assortment, the boutique is incredibly properly held and stocked with the brand’s famous leather goods such as carry bags, shoes, and eye put on. The capacity to use one’s in-house Bloomingdale’s charge card provides extra points to this place. Wonderful to examine out if you are in the place and want to avoid the hordes of customers at Louis Vuitton’s flagship shop at the corner of Fifth Voie and East 57th Avenue.
    As for every this store, I chose it since I go there for al sales. Just kidding, there are no product sales actually. This is my preferred shop although. I want the services arrived back to the level it was.

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    I shopped listed here for the very first time and super energized to become a household member at L.V. (hehehe) The staffs are so skilled and not snobby which is the finest thing at a higher stop shop.
    Although the location is crowded often… what do you anticipate? it is L.V. right after all and the area is a super primary attraction place!

  176. Ultimately…Equipage

    I visited the Hermes retailer in research of a 100ml bottle of Equipage and found it. the doorman was gracious to open the doorway for me and the son and greet us great afternoon. Upon getting into and staring around hunting for the fragrances a youthful profits gal with eyeglasses arrived above and asked how she could assist. I discovered my ‘[b][url=http://www.hermesfair.com]hermes birkin[/url][/b]’ and indicated I would proceed to appear about. The product sales gal hovered close by and when I appeared at the enamel bracelets she arrived over and explained the process of how they are produced.

    The profits dude downstairs greeted us as we looked at ties and sneakers. I was dressed easily – plaid shorts and RL polo but felt I was handled as a buyer should be.
    It’s Hermes. Of study course the things are beautiful.
    As I ogled an unbelievably beautiful hand-stitched crocodile hoodie, an exceptionally pleasant salesman walked by and respectfully mentioned “There are only a few of them in the United States. Go forward and try out it on.” I responded “Oh, no way, I cannot.” He warmly repeated himself, “Go in advance and try it on, please.” I rapidly removed myself from the scenario, attempting to management myself, being aware of how exceptionally easy it would have been to hurdle throughout the close by glass ledge, knock in excess of the Security Guard and lightning-bolt out the entrance doorway, scale the side of the constructing, and lizard-leap from creating-leading to building-top rated until finally I get to the predictable security of my very own familiar apartment, exactly where I could thereafter stay peacefully rocking again-and-forth in a darkish corner grappling My Treasured. To estimate Jerri Blank (Strangers with Candy), “Change. Can we adjust?”
    What is excellent about Hermes is the consumer service. Really very well-informed SAs and you they can refurb nearly anything!

    I get irritated when people arrive into the store just to question for a Birkin. There are so many other stunning bags (not to mention prepared-to-put on and accessories).

    Only complaint is the return plan. You greater get property fast with your scarf to make it matches the outfit you had in brain and better get back again to the shop ASAP if it isn’t going to!
    All round, you get what you pay for and I would advocate a check out to this keep while in NYC.
    The five stars are for the merchandise.

    As for the product sales support, when I went into the Boston store with an acquaintance, the SA’s stopped chatting amongst by themselves as we walked in and stood at focus. We were welcomed and handled most graciously.
    I firmly feel that you get from other individuals the very same perspective you place out, as in each area of lifestyle. I discover it intriguing that individuals can come to the same store or cafe and 1 will praise it to the skies whilst the other people are disgusted and unfavorable. This is naturally the cause why.
    If you go in feeling scared and feel like you may possibly not belong there, the folks will pick up on it.
    If you do not feel you are worthy of great support, you won’t get it.
    If you are arrogant and defensive, they will mirror that. If you are hostile and unfriendly, ditto. And so forth.
    By default, you get the finest chance for great services if you stroll in wearing Hermes in some kind, the a lot more noticeable the better-e.g. a Kelly or Birkin bag and/or scarf. (but beware-do not put on fakes!!!!!) And gown really well. No prole caps or jogging footwear or jeans-except you dress in them with significant diamonds.
    You need to also keep in mind that Hermes has to bargain with a large tourist crowd who-as many men and women are these days, unfortunately-often absence fundamental manners. And hordes of females demanding Birkins…who aren’t capable to get them anyway but just want to touch one. Sigh.
    I lately examine a correct story of a lady who brought her Birkin into Hermes and rested it atop a counter to appear at some thing close by. Yet another customer came in excess of and asked her if it was genuine. She explained yes. And this girl then selected up the handbag and exclaimed “but it really is so weighty!”
    The bag’s proprietor explained: “that’s since it has all my issues in it.”
    The lady then proceeded to Empty OUT THE OWNER’S BAG!!!!!!! onto the counter, to the amazement of the SA nearby.
    Shocked, the operator stopped the woman and informed her the bag was not for sale and that it was hers.

    btw, it actually is correct that you can acquire a Birkin (or Kelly) in the store-there is no waiting around checklist unless you want to buy a particular skin. You just have to spend a considerable amount in the shop and then ask if they have a Birkin to match your [b][url=http://www.hermesheaven.com]hermes trim bag[/url][/b] whatever (s). The creator of “Bringing Residence The Birkin” is definitely appropriate about this.

    Indeed it’s outrageous, but as usually, cash talks.

  177. Lastly…Equipage

    I visited the Hermes shop in search of a 100ml bottle of Equipage and found it. the doorman was gracious to open the door for me and the son and greet us great afternoon. On getting into and staring around searching for the fragrances a young product sales gal with glasses arrived in excess of and asked how she could assist. I discovered my ‘[b][url=http://www.hermesfair.com]hermes handbags collection[/url][/b]’ and indicated I would proceed to search close to. The sales gal hovered close by and when I seemed at the enamel bracelets she arrived over and described the procedure of how they are produced.

    The profits dude downstairs greeted us as we looked at ties and sneakers. I was dressed easily – plaid shorts and RL polo but felt I was handled as a customer must be.
    It’s Hermes. Of training course the objects are attractive.
    As I ogled an unbelievably gorgeous hand-stitched crocodile hoodie, an exceptionally welcoming salesman walked by and respectfully mentioned “There are only a few of them in the United States. Go in advance and attempt it on.” I responded “Oh, no way, I can not.” He warmly repeated himself, “Go ahead and try out it on, be sure to.” I swiftly taken out myself from the situation, attempting to handle myself, understanding how extremely straightforward it would have been to hurdle throughout the close by glass ledge, knock over the Safety Guard and lightning-bolt out the entrance doorway, scale the aspect of the building, and lizard-leap from building-top to developing-leading until I get to the predictable basic safety of my individual familiar apartment, in which I could thereafter continue being peacefully rocking back-and-forth in a dark corner grappling My Treasured. To quote Jerri Blank (Strangers with Candy), “Alter. Can we alter?”
    What is excellent about Hermes is the customer support. Very quite well-informed SAs and you they can refurb anything at all!

    I get irritated when men and women come into the store just to request for a Birkin. There are so several other beautiful bags (not to mention prepared-to-wear and components).

    Only grievance is the return plan. You much better get home speedy with your scarf to make it matches the outfit you had in mind and better get again to the retailer ASAP if it isn’t going to!
    General, you get what you spend for and I would advise a pay a visit to to this store whilst in NYC.
    The 5 stars are for the merchandise.

    As for the revenue assist, when I went into the Boston retailer with an acquaintance, the SA’s stopped chatting among on their own as we walked in and stood at interest. We had been welcomed and dealt with most graciously.
    I firmly feel that you get from other people the same mindset you place out, as in each and every region of daily life. I uncover it exciting that individuals can arrive to the exact same store or restaurant and a single will praise it to the skies although the other individuals are disgusted and unfavorable. This is obviously the cause why.
    If you go in feeling scared and really feel like you might not belong there, the folks will decide on up on it.
    If you don’t consider you ought to have very good support, you will not get it.
    If you are arrogant and defensive, they will replicate that. If you are hostile and unfriendly, ditto. And so forth.
    By default, you get the best opportunity for good company if you walk in putting on Hermes in some kind, the more visible the greater-e.g. a Kelly or Birkin bag and/or scarf. (but beware-do not dress in fakes!!!!!) And gown actually nicely. No prole caps or working footwear or jeans-unless you put on them with big diamonds.
    You ought to also bear in mind that Hermes has to bargain with a big tourist crowd who-as several men and women are these times, unfortunately-usually absence simple manners. And hordes of females demanding Birkins…who are not able to purchase them anyway but just want to contact one particular. Sigh.
    I recently go through a true tale of a girl who introduced her Birkin into Hermes and rested it atop a counter to search at a thing close by. An additional buyer arrived in excess of and asked her if it was true. She explained yes. And this girl then picked up the purse and exclaimed “but it really is so weighty!”
    The bag’s operator explained: “that’s simply because it has all my things in it.”
    The lady then proceeded to Vacant OUT THE OWNER’S BAG!!!!!!! onto the counter, to the amazement of the SA close by.
    Shocked, the owner stopped the female and instructed her the bag was not for sale and that it was hers.

    btw, it actually is genuine that you can acquire a Birkin (or Kelly) in the retailer-there is no waiting record unless you want to order a particular skin. You just have to commit a appreciable volume in the shop and then inquire if they have a Birkin to match your [b][url=http://www.hermesheaven.com]hermes h belt[/url][/b] whichever (s). The author of “Getting Home The Birkin” is completely appropriate about this.

    Yes it’s outrageous, but as always, funds talks.

  178. Just received back from acquiring my wife her birthday present at Hermes of Paris. It was wonderful time in the store. The workers took great care and made my spouse and me feel quite welcomed. It was our first pay a visit to of Hermes and my wife now owns a stunning H classic belt. The initial piece in her assortment more to occur for long term birthdays
    Hermes– astronomically expensive stuff that you question WHO would be getting here. All of their things are created the outdated fashioned way, by hand and with [b][url=http://www.hermesloveyou.com]hermes birkin handbags[/url][/b] several hours of labor. I guess that is the reason for the markup. Oh, and the legendary label that only looks to get a lot more popular with the several years (…thanks, Kardashians?)

    I will not be buying a $15K Birkin any time shortly, but this store does have a good collection of H things. If you’re searching to majorly splurge, this is the area to do it. There is a excellent selection of women’s scarves, enamel/leather bracelets, belts, wallets, agenda guides, garments, housewares, and many others and so on. I’ve yet to see a Birkin, but I have spotted a Kelly a couple of occasions.

    Consumer company– normal of large end shops, if you really don’t gown the portion (aka not dripped in designers) or do not in shape their age range, product sales associates are inclined to disregard you– but not the protection guard! Most of the SAs are good as soon as you interact in discussion with them, but you’ll have to get that stage to present them you’re significant.
    Entire world class buying for products that turn into treasures and heirlooms. An Hermes – Something – [b][url=http://www.go4hermes.com]go4hermes[/url%5D%5B/b%5D is special from a leather belt, silver chain to a famous Birkin bag. My spouse and I are pure aficionado’s of the Hermes lines, know all the items and can not possibly have sufficient.

    Their designs are legendary, the components identified nowhere else and unduplicable services.

    You won’t be dissatisfied, the rates reflect these attributes.

    This is a vogue hoarder’s aspiration occur true. Right after weeks of perusing the internet site, my co-worker and I ventured to the physical spot in Union Square. We spent above an hour searching at almost every single simple piece of merchandise. Two salesgirls who sat out front were not very useful, but who cares? The established-up of the shop presents you unbridled entry to all the goods (except Hermes and some little equipment). Some of the LV items have been insanely overpriced ($300 for a employed accessories pochette?), but those are couple of and far in amongst. Wonderful choice of Chanel.

    What did it for me have been the bowls of candy and nuts on the front counter. Take in ME? Don’t mind if I do.
    They provide this sort of excellent support (genuine smiles). We adore their footwear/sandals – my 8 12 months outdated and I….they never stop to amaze me…the entire purchasing encounter is beautiful. We walked in this past Saturday, they recognized us quickly! We had been there very last December getting our daughter a content pair of the penguin boots.

    Peter, a single of the profits associates, is untiringly responding to our curious woman…wherever do you receive company like that? Not at Hermes, I can say that considerably…to our dismay, we went there immediately after we visited Camper. These kinds of disappointment – I digress…this evaluation is about Camper : )

    He remembered nearly all the sandals we very own… [b][url=http://www.hermesheart.com]hermes kelly handbags[/url][/b] is wonderful services! We gladly store there…he also supplied to fix my sandals from two a long time ago that necessary some loving care….kudos to Peter!

    I Really like hermes shoes! I’ve acquired them in a couple of boutique retailers in Santa Cruz in the past. When I was going for walks past hermes keep and observed the men’s assortment, I right away known as my boyfriend to come down to the store when he received off of operate.

  179. Just acquired again from getting my spouse her birthday present at Hermes of Paris. It was remarkable time in the store. The personnel took wonderful treatment and made my spouse and me truly feel quite welcomed. It was our 1st go to of Hermes and my wife now owns a lovely H common belt. The very first piece in her collection far more to appear for future birthdays
    Hermes– astronomically high-priced things that you wonder WHO would be purchasing right here. All of their objects are constructed the previous fashioned way, by hand and with [b][url=http://www.hermesloveyou.com]birkin hermes[/url][/b] several hours of labor. I guess that’s the explanation for the markup. Oh, and the legendary label that only seems to get a lot more well-known with the years (…thanks, Kardashians?)

    I won’t be getting a $15K Birkin any time soon, but this shop does have a very good selection of H things. If you’re looking to majorly splurge, this is the spot to do it. There is a excellent assortment of women’s scarves, enamel/leather bracelets, belts, wallets, agenda guides, garments, housewares, and many others and many others. I’ve but to see a Birkin, but I have noticed a Kelly a handful of times.

    Buyer service– normal of large conclude stores, if you don’t dress the component (aka not dripped in designers) or really don’t in shape their age selection, profits associates are likely to ignore you– but not the safety guard! Most of the SAs are great the moment you interact in discussion with them, but you will have to consider that action to show them you’re severe.
    World course shopping for goods that become treasures and heirlooms. An Hermes – Anything at all – [b][url=http://www.go4hermes.com]birkin[/url%5D%5B/b%5D is unique from a leather-based belt, silver chain to a famous Birkin bag. My wife and I are pure aficionado’s of the Hermes lines, know all the items and cannot perhaps have adequate.

    Their types are legendary, the supplies identified nowhere else and unduplicable support.

    You won’t be dissatisfied, the prices replicate these characteristics.

    This is a style hoarder’s desire occur genuine. Following weeks of perusing the website, my co-worker and I ventured to the physical spot in Union Square. We invested above an hour looking at nearly each and every simple piece of merchandise. Two salesgirls who sat out entrance have been not really beneficial, but who cares? The set-up of the shop provides you unbridled accessibility to all the items (except Hermes and some modest components). Some of the LV items had been insanely overpriced ($300 for a employed components pochette?), but individuals are handful of and considerably in between. Fantastic choice of Chanel.

    What did it for me have been the bowls of candy and nuts on the entrance counter. Consume ME? Don’t head if I do.
    They offer this sort of fantastic support (real smiles). We really like their footwear/sandals – my 8 12 months outdated and I….they by no means cease to amaze me…the entire buying knowledge is pretty. We walked in this earlier Saturday, they regarded us immediately! We had been there previous December purchasing our daughter a content pair of the penguin boots.

    Peter, a single of the sales associates, is untiringly responding to our curious woman…exactly where do you obtain support like that? Not at Hermes, I can say that considerably…to our dismay, we went there after we visited Camper. Such disappointment – I digress…this review is about Camper : )

    He remembered virtually all the sandals we personal… [b][url=http://www.hermesheart.com]hermes handbags[/url][/b] is excellent services! We gladly store there…he also presented to fix my sandals from 2 a long time ago that needed some loving care….kudos to Peter!

    I Love hermes footwear! I’ve acquired them in a couple of boutique stores in Santa Cruz in the previous. When I was walking earlier hermes shop and observed the men’s assortment, I instantly called my boyfriend to arrive down to the store when he acquired off of work.

  180. Just acquired back from acquiring my wife her birthday reward at Hermes of Paris. It was wonderful time in the store. The staff took fantastic treatment and manufactured my spouse and me really feel very welcomed. It was our very first visit of Hermes and my spouse now owns a lovely H traditional belt. The 1st piece in her assortment a lot more to come for long term birthdays
    Hermes– astronomically expensive stuff that you wonder WHO would be purchasing here. All of their products are constructed the outdated fashioned way, by hand and with [b][url=http://www.hermesloveyou.com]kelly handbag[/url][/b] several hours of labor. I guess that’s the reason for the markup. Oh, and the iconic label that only seems to get more popular with the years (…thanks, Kardashians?)

    I won’t be getting a $15K Birkin any time soon, but this retailer does have a excellent selection of H stuff. If you’re hunting to majorly splurge, this is the place to do it. There is a very good assortment of women’s scarves, enamel/leather bracelets, belts, wallets, agenda books, apparel, housewares, etc and so forth. I’ve yet to see a Birkin, but I have noticed a Kelly a couple of moments.

    Consumer support– standard of large conclude shops, if you don’t gown the element (aka not dripped in designers) or really don’t in shape their age assortment, product sales associates have a tendency to ignore you– but not the security guard! Most of the SAs are nice once you engage in discussion with them, but you are going to have to choose that action to present them you are significant.
    Planet course searching for merchandise that grow to be treasures and heirlooms. An Hermes – Nearly anything – [b][url=http://www.go4hermes.com]hermes leather belts[/url][/b] is unique from a leather-based belt, silver chain to a popular Birkin bag. My spouse and I are pure aficionado’s of the Hermes lines, know all the items and can’t perhaps have adequate.

    Their patterns are legendary, the materials identified nowhere else and unduplicable company.

    You won’t be disappointed, the prices reflect these characteristics.

    This is a fashion hoarder’s dream come correct. Right after weeks of perusing the internet site, my co-worker and I ventured to the physical spot in Union Sq.. We spent above an hour looking at virtually each and every solitary piece of merchandise. Two salesgirls who sat out entrance had been not extremely useful, but who cares? The set-up of the retailer offers you unbridled entry to all the items (other than Hermes and some tiny components). Some of the LV parts have been insanely overpriced ($300 for a utilised equipment pochette?), but people are few and far in in between. Fantastic variety of Chanel.

    What did it for me had been the bowls of candy and nuts on the entrance counter. Eat ME? Don’t mind if I do.
    They provide this kind of excellent company (authentic smiles). We adore their footwear/sandals – my 8 year old and I….they in no way stop to amaze me…the total shopping experience is wonderful. We walked in this previous Saturday, they identified us instantly! We have been there very last December buying our daughter a satisfied pair of the penguin boots.

    Peter, one particular of the revenue associates, is untiringly responding to our curious woman…exactly where do you get support like that? Not at Hermes, I can say that considerably…to our dismay, we went there following we visited Camper. This kind of disappointment – I digress…this evaluation is about Camper : )

    He remembered practically all the sandals we individual… [b][url=http://www.hermesheart.com]hermes kelly handbag[/url][/b] is wonderful support! We gladly shop there…he also presented to repair service my sandals from two a long time in the past that necessary some loving treatment….kudos to Peter!

    I Love hermes shoes! I’ve acquired them in a few boutique shops in Santa Cruz in the previous. When I was going for walks earlier hermes keep and observed the men’s selection, I right away referred to as my boyfriend to occur down to the retailer when he got off of function.

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  182. What do you mean it cant happen? It alderay has, the weakening of our own US, British Japanese, currency is weakened. George and his Cronies have made sure that they, thru various organisations/institutions and now his infiliteration thru Pres. Obama and Congress and Uk’s Gordon Brown, collapsed our systems in the guise of union reform and the green movement to usher in the New World Order. Kiss Capitalism and Freedom goodbye.

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  184. >>> AMEN !! WAKE UP!!! People are SO Distracted by Amer.IDOL, Football, etc. that they are Willingly Oblivious to Truth! There is only one way to receive etneral life and one name to believe in to receive salvation.“the name of Jesus Christ . . . Nor is there salvation in any other, for there is no other name under heaven given among men by which we must be saved. Acts 4:10-12George Swartz’ Soros repent and turn to YOUR SAVIOUR: Jesus Christ of Nazareth!!

  185. Soros is DEMONIC didn’t he steal money from the JEWS and ratted them out to the NAZIS and thsiis how he made hisbillions??? .and he is JEWISH??? he’s sold his soul btw Barry Soetoro aka Obama is the chosen Antichrist who will finalize the evil ONE WORLD government and put all nations into bondage Revelation13

  186. in German Schaffe, schaffe, He4usle baue (lit. work, work, build home ), while they have their siesats and similar. We have a German Wirtschaftswunder after the war, Austria also boomed pretty well back then, but there was never anything even remotely similar in Italy, or any other PIIG. It’s a mentality anda culture issue, again proving that there is no Europe / European thing. There are different people, different cultures and they don’t mix. Why do we have to pay for their sloppiness? Kick them all out of the Eurozone. Heck, drop the Euro, drop the EU. It’s clearly not working.We’re talking countries here, that have been looked down upon and laughed at long before we even had an EU. Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, nice vacation places (if you like roasting in the sun) but apart from that the general sentiment among Austrians, Germans, British, Dutch and others was always lol when looking at their economic power and so on.And their austerity measures will hold for how long? Until the moment Greece gets absolved 50% of their debt. There is already talk about doing that. The moment they see there won’t be consequences they will go back to how things were. Why? Because it’s easier.

  187. Congratulations on your new toy! Believe it or not, I’m on my way to buying a new toy carmea very soon! :mrgreen: Er, what did you do with the flash on the first photo. And, sweetie, can you use a different photo host? That logo clutters the photo. 😛 😆

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