Martin Armstrong: The Coming Great Depression

 

Armstrong Economics
The Coming Great Depression
Why Government Is Powerless

1929_panic_on_wall_street It is frustrating to read so many comparisons of our current situation with 1929 while watching policy be set-in-motion to create spending on infrastructure. Everyone has their hand out looking for a bailout like a bunch of street burns pleading for money so they can get drunk or stay drunk. Almost nothing of what I have read is close to being accurate.  The scary part is depressions are inevitably caused by politicians who may be paving the road with good intentions, but are relying upon analysis so biased, we do not stand a chance.

The stock market by no means predicts the economy. A stock market crash does not cause a Depression. The Crash of 1903 was properly titled – “The Rich Man's Panic." What has always distinguished a recession from a Depression is the stock market drop may signal a recession, but the collapse in debt signals a Depression. This Depression was set in motion by (1) excessive leverage by the banks once more, but (2) the lifting of usury laws back in 1980 to fight inflation that opened the door to the highest consumer interest rates in thousands of years and shifted spending that created jobs into the banks as interest on things like credit cards.  As a percent of GDP, household debt doubled since 1980 making the banks rich and now the clear and present danger to our economic survival. A greater proportion of spending by the consumer that use to go to savings and creating jobs, goes to interest and that has undermined the ability to avoid a major economic melt-down.

The crisis in banking has distinguished depression from recession. The very term "Black Friday" comes from the Panic of 1869 when the mob was dragging bankers out of their offices and hanging them in New York. They had to send in troops to stop the riot. A banking collapse destroys the capital formation of a nation and that is what creates the Depression. The stock market is not the problem despite the fact it is visible and measurable and may decline 40%, 60% or even 89% like in 1929-32. But the stock market decline is normally measured in months (30-37) whereas the economic decline is measured in years (23-26). Beware of schizophrenic analysis that is often mutually contradictory or often antagonistic in part or in quality for far too often people think they have to offer a reason for every daily movement.

Our fate will not be determined by the stock market performance. Neither can we stimulate the economy by increasing spending on infrastructure any more than buying your wife a mink coat, will improve the grades of your child in school. We are facing a Depression that will last 23-26 years. The response of government is going to seal our fate because they cannot learn from the past and will make the same mistakes that every politician has made before them. Even if the Dow Industrials make new highs next week (impossible), the Depression is unstoppable with current models and tools.

Stocks & Consumers vs. Investment Banks

Let us set the record straight. The Stock Market is a mere reflection of the economy like looking at yourself in a mirror. It is not the economy and does not even provide a reliable forecasting tool of what is to come economically. We are headed into the debt tsunami that is of historical proportions unheard-of in history. There have been the big debt crisis incidents that have hobbled nations, toppled kings, and set in motion economic dark ages. It is so critical to understand the difference between the economy and the stock market, for unless you comprehend this basic and root distinction between the two, survival may be impossible.

Economic Confidence Model Close UP 010909 To the left I have provided the Economic Confidence Model for the immediate decline. You will notice I did not call this the "stock market model" nor a model for gold, oil, or commodities. I used the word "economic" with distinct and clear purpose. I have stressed it does not forecast the fate, of a particular market or even a particular economy. It is the global economic cycle some may call even a business cycle. Please note that what does line-up and peaks precisely with this model often even to the specific day that was calculated decades advance is the area of primary focus. Yet the US stock market reached a high precisely with this model and then rallied to a new high price 8.6 months later. In Japan, the NIKKEI 225 peaked precisely on February 26th, 2007. This is not a very good omen. But there was something profound that turned down with the February 27th, 2007 target – the S&P Case-Shiller index of housing prices in 20 cities. February 2007 was the peak for this cycle in the debt markets – not the US stock market. 
 

The stock market always bottoms in advance of the economic low. In fact, we will see new highs in the now even in the middle of a Great Depression. At least the 1929 cycle was more of a bubble top in stocks than what we have in place currently in the US stock market.  We still had the bubble top in the NASDAQ back in 2000, but this illustrates the point. There was a major explosive speculative boom. The bubble burst in 2000 and there was a moderate investment recession into 2002, but there was no appreciable economic decline that was set in motion because of that crash. Currently, we have a major high in 2007, but it was not a bubble top because it was not the focus of speculation. The real concentration of capital that created the bubble top, took place in the debt markets. This is the origin of the economic depression – not stocks and not the displacement of farmers because of a 7 year drought created by the Dust Bowl that invoked the response of the Works Progress Administration (WPA) in 1935. Keep in mind the stock market bottomed in the mid summer of 1932 when unemployment was not excessive from a historical perspective.
 
The 25% level of unemployment came after the major 1932 stock market low that was followed by both the banking crisis after the election of FDR and before his fateful inauguration. The Banking Crisis came about because of rumors that Roosevelt was going to confiscate gold. Herbert Hoover published his memoirs showing letters written to Roosevelt pleading with him to make a statement that the rumors were false. He did not.

It’s the Debt Level Stupid

In 1907, the excessive debt was in the stock market. Call Money Rates (the level of interest paid to support broker loans) reached 125%. Even 1929 never came close to such levels. This also illustrates that the capital markets do not have enough money to invest equally on all levels in all segments of a domestic economy or in particular nations. To create the boom-bust, it requires the concentration of capital. A bubble top is formed when the majority of those seeking to employ money to make money are focused in a particular market or even country. The 1907 Crash was a bubble top because capital invested on a highly concentrated basis in railroad stocks. The bubble top in Japan back in 1989 was caused by a concentration of both domestic and international capital that had made Japan the number one market in the World. It is this concentration of capital that creates the boom and bust cycle. If money was evenly disbursed like the socialistic & communistic philosophies argue, we would be back to the dark ages where there was no concentration of capital and no economy beyond the walls of the castle so to speak. That is why communism failed.

It is the overall level of debt that has reached a bubble top in almost every possible area. For example, in 1980, household debt was about 50% of GDP. Going into the February 2007 high, it reached about 100% of GDP. We must also realize that something profound took place back in 1980. Americans would on the first blush seem to be living it up, buying everything they can on credit and have piles of tangible assets to show for it. That is like looking at the statistics for carrots and arguing that they are lethal because every person who has ever eaten a carrot is dead or in the process of a gradual slow death. This absurd example illustrates the bias that can produce the schizophrenic analysis.

There were, once upon a time, usury laws that generally held any interest rate greater than 10% was illegal. The Federal Reserve under Paul Volker believed that interest rates needed to be raised to insane levels to stop the runaway inflation, which  was the first stone that hit the water sending the shock waves that we are having to pay for today. Once the usury laws were altered so the Fed could fight inflation, it set in motion the doubling of household debt, not to mention the national debt. At 8%, the principle is doubled through interest in less than 10 years. The national debt exploded from $1 to about $10 trillion in 25 years and household debt has doubled.  Some states now consider usury to be 26%. Historically, these are the interest rates paid by the very worst of all debtors – the bankrupts. In fact, in China, the worst creditors historically paid at best 10%. What we have done is the lifting of usury to fight inflation back in 1980, has resulted in usury now being so high, a larger portion of income of the common worker is spent on interest, not buying goods & services that even create jobs. This is one primary reason why jobs have been leaving as well. The consumer needs the lowest possible price and labor wants the highest wages, and to stay competitive, producers leave taking manufacturing jobs as well as service jobs. The extraordinary rise in interest rates that are historical highs since at least pre-Roman times, could not have been possible but for the lifting of usury laws back in 1980 to fight inflation. This amounted to setting a fire to try to stop a brush fire that failed. Consumers pay the highest rates in thousands of years that feed the banks at the expense of economic growth. Even the National Debt rose from $2. 1 to $8.5 trillion between 1 986 and 2006 with $6. 1 trillion being interest. We are funding the nation on a credit card and destroying the economy simultaneously.

This has been enhanced by the tremendous leverage and false position that were created in the derivative markets causing the banks to just implode.  Indeed, this is the origin of the economic Depression we are facing. The $700 billion bailout might have worked if Paulson did what he said he would – buy the debt and take it out of the banks. Had the debt been segregated into a pool and managed independently by a hedge fund manager not an investment banker, we could have mitigated the problem. But that is now too late. The credit implosion is taking place on a wholesale basis around the world. The more the economy declines in housing prices, the greater the defaults, the greater the foreclosures, and the lower the economy will move. We are now in a downward spiral that cannot be fixed by indirect schemes. As I said, you cannot get your kid's test scores up by purchasing a mink coat for your wife. Everyone will have their hand out begging for infrastructure money. But the theory of just spending money that will somehow make things better, it is like handing Mexico a trillion dollars and arguing that they will buy US goods that will somehow reverse the economy.

The leveraging of debt by the Investment Banks in particular has undermined the global economy. Where household debt has doubled since 1980, the professional financial service sector has seen a rise from 21% of GDP in 1980 to 116% by February 2007. Now consider the debt that they created with the mortgages is already down by 50% and falling, the bailouts will keep coming. To help correct the problem, the commercial banks will tighten credit to make their exposure less, and in fact, their solvency ratios will require it anyway. This we can expect to see not just in business, but housing and car loans that will contract the economy as well.

The Great Depression is not the perfect model for today. It was a complete capital contraction. The stock market basis the now Dow Jones Industrials fell 89% between September 3rd, 1929 and July 1932. The contraction in debt was quite massive. Then too, the leverage in banks collapsed that reduces the velocity of money and therefore the money supply. The banks were the first real widespread failures with 608 in 1930. Between February and August 1931, the commercial banks began to bleed profusely as bank deposits fell almost $3 billion or about 9% of all deposits. As 1932 began, the number of bank failures reached 1,860. The massive amount of bank failures in the thousands took place with the rumor of Roosevelt's intention to confiscate gold. Although he denied that was his policy the night of the elections, he remained silent refusing to discuss the issue until he was sworn in. on March 6, 1933 just 2 days after taking office, Roosevelt called a bank "holiday" closing the banks from which at least another 2,500 never reopened.

All of these events are contrasted by the collapse in national debts in Europe. Other than Herbert Hoover’s memoirs, I have yet to read any analysis of the Great Depression attribute anything internationally other than the infamous US Smoot-Hawley Act setting in motion the age of protectionism in June 1930. It was the financial war between European nations attacking each other's bond markets openly shorting them that led to all of Europe defaulting on their debt. Even Britain went into a moratorium suspending debt payments. This is what put the pressure on capital flows sending waves of capital to the United States that to sane degree was kind of like the capital flow to Japan into 1989. This put tremendous pressure upon the dollar driving it to new record highs that were misread by the politicians who did not understand capital flow. They responded with Smoot-Hawley misreading the entire set of facts. (see Greatest Bull Market In History) (Herbert Hoover's memoirs).

It is true that today we have Keynesian and Monetarist theories to manage the crisis. Sad to say, neither one will now work. Bernanke has responded in force dropping the federal funds rate from 5.25% to .25%. He has also opened the Fed Window and thrown out more than $1 trillion in 13 months. However, as admirable as this may be, he has no tool that will do the job. Milton Friedman was correct! The Great Depression was not caused by the decline in the stock market. The event was set in motion by the credit and banking crisis that resulted in a one-third contraction in the money supply.

Interest rates will do nothing. The flight to quality always takes place so what happens is a two-fold punch. (1) Interest rates collapse because capital seeks preservation not yield and will accept during such times virtually a zero rate of return, and (2) the flight to quality takes more available cash from the private sector because government debt truly does compete with the private sector. We are seeing this even now. Federal debt becomes the place to go so we see higher yields in both state am municipal bonds because they are not quality and could default like any bank. This contracts the money supply.  Opening the window and just throwing buckets of money into the system will never have any impact to reverse the trend.

Furthermore, we are now in a Floating-Exchange Rate system that has made the global economy far more complex than it was in 1929. We all know that China is one of the biggest holders of US government debt. With the contagion spreading to Russia, South America, and China aside from Europe, we see a steeper decline in the China stock market than we do in the United States because that is where capital had concentrated domestically. If China needs money to stimulate its own economy when exports appear to be collapsing by about 50%, then we can see that the Keynesian model is worthless. If the Fed tries to pump money into the system through buying bonds from the private sector, those bonds may be held by aliens who take the money back to their own economies. The Fed cannot be sure it is even capable of stimulating the purely domestic economy. Lower interest rates to virtually zero like Japan did during the 19905, then if capital finds a better place to invest, it can leave for a higher rate of interest as capital did from Japan to the United states, which is why their domestic economy was never stimulated by the' lower interest rates.
Leverage during the Great Depression was not even remotely close to what we have to face today. The credit-default swaps are alone worth about $60 trillion. This was a stupid product for it has so tangled the world there may be no way out. This product created the false illusion that you did not have to worry about the quality of the loan because it was insured. We have no way of covering this level of implosion. Add the unfunded entitlements and then the state and local debts who cannot print money to cover their shortfall s, and we are looking at a contraction of debt that is simply beyond all contemplation.

So What Now?

So now that we see it is not Wall Street, again, but the banks, perhaps we can separate the facts from the fantasy. We can now see that there are two separate and distinct forecasts to be made – (1) economy and (2) stock market. Economic Depressions have a duration unfortunately of generally 23 years with an outside potential of 26 years. The 1873 Panic led to a economic depression of really 23 years into 1896. There were bouts with high volatility and injection of major waves of inflation following the major silver discoveries. It was the age of the Silver Democrats who tried to create inflation by over-valuing silver relative to gold. This created a wave of European-American arbitrage where silver flowed into the US exchanging it for gold, which then flowed back to Europe. By 1896, the US Treasury was broke.

The Panic of 1873 marked the collapse of J. Cook & Co, the huge investment bank that was the 19th Century version of Goldman Sachs. They went bust because of excessive leverage in railroad stocks. It matters not what the instrument may be, it is always the leverage, which set the tone for a economic depression that lasted into 1896 where JP Morgan became famous for leading a bailout of the us Treasury organizing a loan of gold bullion. The stock market rallied and made new highs with plenty of panics between 1873 and 1896. The point is, The Panic of 1893 was quite a horrible one. The point is, the stock market is not a reflection of the economy. It often trades up in anticipation of better times, and trades down on those same perceptions of bad times. In both cases, new highs or lows unfold even contrary to economic trends.

We will see new highs in the now long before we see the final low in the economy. The ideal lows on a timing basis for the stock market will be as soon as April 2009 or by June of 2009. The more pronounced lows would be due on a timing basis between December 2009 and April 2010. The most extreme target would seem to be August 2010. The shorter the resolution to the stock market low, the sooner we will start to see much higher volatility.

The low for the Dow would be indicated by reaching the 3,500-4,000 area. A 2008 closing below 12,000 in the cash now Jones Industrials will signal that the bear market is underway into at least 2009 if not 2010. A year-end closing for 2008 below the 9,700-9,800 level, will signal higher volatility as well. The real critical level for the closing of 2008 will be the 7,200 area generally. A year-end closing beneath this general level will signal that we could see the sharp decline to test the extremes support at 3,600-4,000 by as early as April 19th, 2009 going into May /June 2009. If we were to drop so quickly into those targets, this would be most likely the major low with a significant rally into at least April 16th, 2010.

The less volatile outcome would be a prolonged decline into the December 2009 target to about April 16th, 2010. A low at that late date would tend to project out for a high as early as June 2011 or into late 2012.  Nevertheless, volatility appears to be very high. Those who were at the 1985 Economic conference in Princeton, may want to review those video tapes. The volatility we were looking at 20-30 years into the future is now. As 3 of the 5 major investment bankers failed, Merrill, Lehman and Bear, the liquidity has evaporated so the swings are going to be much more dramatic.

The major support is 3,600 on the now Industrials. During '09, the support area appears to be 6,600, 5,000, and 4,000-3,600. Clearly, resistance is shaping up at 9,700-9,800. It would take a monthly close back above the 12,400 level to signal new highs are likely. If we saw a complete collapse into a low by April 2009 or June 2009 reaching the 4,000 general area, this would be the major low with most likely a hyper-inflationary spiral developing thereafter. In that case, the now Jones Industrials could be back at even new highs as early as mid 2011 or going into late 2012.

Gold has decoupled from oil as it should and has been rising on an ounce-to-barrel ratio. Here, the pivot area for 2009 seems to be the $730-$760 area with the key support being still at the $525-$540 zone. The major high intraday was on March 17th, 2008. A weekly closing below $800 warns of consolidation. Only a monthly closing below the $535 area would signal a major high is in place. The more critical support appears to be at about $680 – $705. A weekly closing beneath this area will also warn of a potential consolidation. A major high is possible as early as 2010-2011 with the potential for an exponential rally into 2015 if there is any kind of a low going into 2011.45. The key to watch will be crude Oil. The collapse of Investment Banks has removed the speculation that exaggerated the trend. A year-end close below $40 for 2008 would signal a major high and serious economic decline ahead.

There Are No Tools Left!  The Emperor Has No Clothes

It is hard to explain to someone who believe he has power, that he really has nothing of any significance. This becomes the story of the Emperor Has No Clothes. No one will tell him, and if you do, it may be off-with-your-head. This is akin to the man behind the curtain in the Wizard of OZ trying to keep up the whole illusion. After all, why do we vote for people unless we believe that will somehow change our lives?

Interest Rates

When an economy is rising and the stock market is exploding, interest rates always rise because the demand for money is rising because people believe that they can make a profit. Government pretend to be raising interest rates to stop inflation, but they do not create a trend contrary to the free markets. What happened in 1980 was merely that the government over-shoots the differential between expectations and the rate of interest. If you believe the stock market will double, you will pay 20% interest. A rising interest rate does not create a bear market. Only when the rate of interest exceeds expectations of potential profit offering almost a fixed secured return, will capital leave the speculative market and run to the bond market.
In a bear market, interest rates always decline because of the flight to quality. When there is a risk of a .banking crisis as well, then the flight to quality shows that capital is willing to accept virtually zero in return for the privilege to park itself is a secure manner to preserve the future.

In both cases, the government may accelerate the trend, but by no means can they create the trend or alter the trend. Lowering interest rates to zero right now will not reverse the economic decline. People will look out the window and until they feel confident again, they will not come out from behind the castle walls. Japan lowered interest rates to virtually zero for nearly a decade. All it did was fuel the carry trade whereby yen was borrowed at 0.1 % and invested in dollars at 5-8%. There was little opportunity to invest domestically in Japan and the stock market languished in a broad consolidation with flurries the upside every-now-and-again.

Monetary Theory

The Fed has already put into the system about $1 trillion in 13 months. The real problem is they are buying back US government debt injecting cash into the system. But if those bonds are sold to the Fed by foreign holders, there can be no injection of cash into the domestic economy. This amounts to the monetization of our debt in any event. Clearly, buying bonds from the market is not a guaranteed increase in domestic money supply especially when the velocity of money is itself collapsing. Borrowing heavily all these years and depending on foreign investors to buy that debt, altered the course of economics.  Of course there has always been the foreign investor, but there has not been the floating exchange rate system. The rise and fall of the dollar itself can now either attract foreign capital with an advance or repel capital with its decline. Like we needed another new variable.

Infrastructure Spending

There really is nothing left in the tool bag that can help even to mitigate the coming Economic Depression. The unemployment rate at the end of 1930 was only about 8.9% – similar to the 1975 recession. Things were very slow back then. Even housing was not moving and people took whatever offers came their way. It was the Dust Bowl that began in 1934 that sent the unemployment rising after the 1932 low in the stock market. About 40% of the work force was agrarian. Hence, Congress could not pass a law to make it rain. The real devastation was that this presented a huge portion of the work force that had to be retrained into skilled labor. It was the Great Depression that finally by force of necessity, created an industrial work force that may have taken another 200 years to unfold by gradual transformation.

The WPA was formed in 1935, 3 years after the low in the stock market (1932). It had a slow and marginal success. At best, if we attribute all improvement to this one program, very unlikely, unemployment was only reduced by about 20%. 

1935 20.3% 

1936 16.9%

1937 14.3%

1938 19.0%

1939 17.2% 

1940 14.6%

Even if we attribute everything to the WPA, all the way into 1940, the most the unemployment declines was by 30%. However, at the end of World War II, we see an Unemployment rate of 1.9% by 1945. Any ideas that we can spend trillions on infrastructure and make it all better, forget it.

Turning to infrastructure in the middle of a debt crisis makes no sense. The idea of just spending money will somehow stimulate the economy, will not work. This is like trying to fight in the desert of Iraq using the same tactics as in Vietnam. There has to be sane connection to what we are doing. Just because FDR instituted the WPA when we had a huge displacement issue in the work force, almost 6 years after the crash began, makes no sense at all for our current problems. As I said, this is like buying your wife a mink coat to somehow influence your kid to get their grades up. The connection is tenuous at best and nonexistent in all reality.

Summary

Unless we attack the debt structure directly, there is no point in counting upon any government to help mitigate the problem and more-likely-than-not, our very future may be recast in so many ways, the level of frustration will rise, and that leads to war because war distracts the people from hanging their own politicians. The oldest trick in the book is to blame the guy next-door down.  Unless we are honestly prepared to truly 1) reorganize the structure of government, 2) reorganize the entire debt structure both private and public, 3) regulate leverage,  4) restore usury laws that will free up personal income, and 5) look at just eliminating the federal income tax in combination with 6) establishing a new national heathcare system that will restructure all pension plans public and private, there is not much hope for the future from government. Our definition of money (M1) does not include bonds so we can fool ourselves by issuing $10 trillion in bonds is different than printing the cash. It is still money. Taxes are needed in a gold standard where money cannot be created. Stop competing with the states, control the budget as a percent of GDP, increase the money supply to that degree, and stop the taxing when money is created by leverage and velocity anyway. This will restore jobs and inject huge confidence as in 1964 when the payroll tax was cut permanently. One-offs never work. People save the rebates for a rainy day. We need real honest reform since the states will go broke and seek handouts as well. So, it is time to get real. It is time we restructure the entire system including the banks which always cause the problem. We don't need excessive regulation of things that did not create the problem when the real culprits always escape.

You may send comments directly to Martin Armstrong at ArmstrongEconomics@GMail.com.

69 thoughts on “Martin Armstrong: The Coming Great Depression”

  1. You obviously think that Don Wolanchuk’s argument for entering the epicenter of primary wave 3 of the world-wide capitalist expansion after the collapse of communism is not on.

    Isn’t it possible that the Asian expansion boom will drag the USA along for the ride to some degree?

  2. Regnum wrote: “dachief can’t be taken seriously. The epicenter babble is good for a chuckle but not much else.

    As for the Asian expansion boom, it was built on exports funded by American debt. That’s gone bye-bye now because the debt’s gone toxic.”

    Maybe it’t true, the USA…modern Rome if imploding will drag down the outer provinces with it. However lets not forget about James Dines (who once sat beside Martin at an Outlook Conference in Vancouver – oh the glory days when Marty was King and could dine at the Bayshore INN etc.)

    Dines said in the late 1970’s that the 21st Century would belong to China and that eventually it would be the largest economy in the world. Martin said back in the early 1990’s to me that China would be the strongest at first but eventually a greater Europe including Russia and the East Block would become the biggest. To me it looks like China will be the biggest as I originally said long ago. In Marco Polo’s time China was the wealthiest nation on Earth so they will just be reclaiming their former glory. For example look the the Build Your Dreams automobile company in China, they started out building batteries in the late 1990’s and have quickly moved to building cars equivalent to Honda’s and Toyotas in recent years, the international automotive industry world-wide has been shocked at how fast they have ramped it all up.

    Chinese love money and materialism and work like hell, they also have good balance sheets as far as I know. So I wouldn’t write them off too easily but it would be good to see some serious number crunching on them. Playing the devil’s advocate here along with Mr. Wolanchuk who privately told me that he was wrong about Martin Armstrong (in that he used to mock him) but recently he went back to mocking him which I found to be pretty unfair and inconsistant with his previous about turn.

    BTW… I have documented on the blog I run to help Martin that I believe there is evidence that both Google and Wikipedia have been manipulated as to what is reported on the internet about Martin. see it on http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.com/ Personally I think Marty should resurrect Princeton Economics when he gets out and give the powers that be the finger.

  3. From Martins chart, I thought we make a high ( bear mkt rally high) by April 19, 2009 and then drop into June/July 2009. Basically should be a down year then up in 2010 then down till June 13, 2011.

    If 3,500 reached on the Dow Futures (I’m looking firs for 5,500 after April 19)in 2009 or 1st quarter 2010, do we test these lows by June 13, 2011??

    I cannot see a Bull market taking place till 2015/2016 in the stock market.

    Japan went sideways and down for 18/19 years 1989 to 2008

    From 1900 the the market went down and sidewasy for 21 years, then 8 years, then down and flat for 17 years (30-46), then up for 20 years(46-66), then sideways/down/sideways (66-82), then up from 82-2000 that is 18 years and now its been 8 years of sideways and down market. So do we have 8 or 10 more years to go before another bull market comes along???

  4. If Martin would tell the FBI where he hid the money from his Japanese bond scam, he would be out of prison before the bear market ends.

    Hopefully people see the Madoff aspect of Martin’s career of posing as a financial wizard. He and Madoff may have some jolly times talking about the imbeciles they scammed and those who still believe them when they get to be cell mates. 😉

  5. If Martin stole money from the Japanese the as he says…’how is it that there was not one wire transfer of investor’s money into my personal accounts.’ (paraphrased)

    Lets stop the libel and bs, the powers that be decided to get him because he is a threat.

  6. Martin had accounts all over the world, by all reports, not just in Republic Bank in New York. Where did all that money go? That’s all the courts asked him to document. He refused to do so and still does.

    What threat is or was he to anyone except Japanese bond investors?

  7. I took one of Martin’s courses in the early 1980’s, so I know his work very well. He was a great performer who spoke and wrote well.

    His “economic model” came from Samuel Benner’s work after the 1873 market crash. Do you remember the famous yellowed chart found in a desk drawer in Philadephia which Martin referred to many times? I have a copy of it from the PEI site and from the NYTimes. It was obviously a Benner chart. Benner charts were well known since Prechter’s first edition of Elliott in the late 1970’s, and there is no WAY that Martin could not have seen Prechter’s book when he was describing the “model” in the 1980’s.

    For Martin to feature that chart and then claim he discovered the “model” via Pi was when I began to realize his claims were “exaggerated”, ***in my opinion***. I knew some of Benner’s descendents who showed me his orginal charts, and I have a reprint of Benner’s early book edition.

    There are real martyrs in our time, or innocents who are persecuted for something they didn’t do. Regretably that happens. It bothers me that Martin’s family has had to bear the pain of his imprisonment. It’s terrible that anyone should waste his life in a cell. But I truly believe that he has done it to himself.

    He should have produced the basic information the court requested. There may be credible reasons why he did not, such as fear of retribution as a squealer on someone else in the bond scam or cover-up, but look what he has done to himself and to his family, presumably. It’s obviously a very complicated case of human behavior. No one ever mentions any of his many associates at PEI in NJ or abroad or their opinions now or anything about them or him. Why is this?

    I can understand why people want some satisfaction or completion of this seemingly horrid story. It makes no sense in normal terms. There is something in this story that is deep in Martin’s heart and in the minds of others of his knowledge that has sealed him up.

  8. Benner’s chart is quite different than the Economic Confidence Model, Benner’s does not give turn points down to an exact day as the ECM does. We just saw the financial indices, housing index and Japanese Nikkei peak on the last pi cycle in early 2007, which showed where capital was concentrating, how much more evidence do you want of the validity of Martin’s model???

    It seems like you are jealous of Martin’s discovery for some bizzare reason.

    I have also seen the old yellowed chart you refer to, but I don’t think it is a Benner chart.

  9. “What threat is or was he to anyone except Japanese bond investors?”

    According to Martin he was warning his subscribers about what market the ‘billionaire’s club’ on wall st. was going to manipulate next. He says he was asked to join this group but refused. So they decided to get him, to shut him down, rather than continue to have to compete against a guy with a superior forcasting system to what they had/have.

    Journalist Michael Campbell of radio station http://www.cknw.com , who runs Canada’s #1 Rated financial show across Canada said of Mr. Armstrong … “Armstrong is different than other Economists, he is usually right.” Campbell worked for Equity Magazine about twenty years ago and they named Martin Armstrong … North America’s Top Economist.

    So yeah…duh… a guy like this with a 32,000 variable super computer model is a threat to the powers that be on wall street.

    Now the banksters are getting taxpayer dollars big time, it was not enough for them to have usurious levels of interest rates to suck from the American worker for the past 3 decades!

  10. HSBC which took over Republic Bank paid all the Japanese investors back every dollar they had in their accounts. It has all been set right.

  11. “He should have produced the basic information the court requested.”

    According to Martin’s daughter Vicky Armstrong,one of the main reason her father remains in prison if because he refused to turn over the source code for his computer model, which he says cost 60 million dollars to build. The CIA wanted his model as was written about by Princeton Economics employee James Smith and Martin refused to let them have it. So why should he have let the government or court have the model for free. Why should the government have the right to have a proprietary piece of intellectual property at all??? Do they have the right to take Microsoft’s code from them? Is there rule of law in the USA for intellectual property or not?

  12. Talk of China leading the world economically is the most over hyped story since the Soviet Union used to claim technological superiority over the USA. That was joke and so is the China hype. (Sorry Jim Rogers et al)

    In reality, China manufactures crap and cheap crap at that. Unfortunately for the Chinese economy, the US consumers are putting a lid on the crap buying and becoming frugal Fannies and saving their hard earned dollars. What a novel concept.

    China has a huge population and equating that huge population to economic power and strength is a misconception. If in fact the world is entering a depression then that huge population will become China’s Achilles heel.

    Food, water and healthcare will become what are most important. Not cheap crap made by China and sold at Wal-Mart.

  13. Its important to note that the japanese corporations were the ones trying to hide losses, the laws in japan were changing so that losses that corporations had on their books were going to have to be realized or market to market rather than market to what their original investment was. Because of this martin armstrong, lehman brothers, and others were giving japanese corporations “repair bonds” with a maturity at some point in the future that brought their portfolios back to the price they paid for it, doing this allowed the japanese corporations to keep the original mark on their investment and not have to write anything down. So the majority of the losses were from the original investments, it seems the US did not understand this. The “victims” (japanese corporations) struck gold when this thing happened, hsbc paid them off any losses that martin might have had AND more importantly all the original losses that the “victims” had created for years of investments gone wrong

  14. Well, the daughter seems to hint at it. Perhaps faaar more going on here. The rule of law under a fiat(irredemable)currency is a myth, intellectual property being part ‘n parcel. Russ above starts to touch it – however, it may not be that he has a forecast system better than theirs, it may be that he ‘stumbled’ upon a system in which they already have deep knowledge. I imagine the 400yr old banking families who own our Fed. have parsed the ins-outs of using paper iou’s to perpetrate continual falling interest rates, siphoning off capital from the real economy while attempting to corner the only real money.

    Fun quotes:
    “Gold Is Money, and Nothing Else.” – JP Morgan, testifying under oath to Congress before the Pujo Commission, 1913

    “But if you wish to remain slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, let them create money.” – Joshua Stamp, Director, Bank of England, 1928

  15. Can someone explain to me why the relative dates of highs and lows in various markets in the “what now” section do not relate to the basic confidence model that has been around for years? The basic model has a high in april 2009 and then a major low in 2011.

  16. Mitch, The extreme oscillations have been highs and lows since the creation of the model, the inner or smaller oscillations can be highs or lows. My own work is predicting that April 23,2009 –
    http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/ – will be a low which is contrary to what Martin wrote in late 2008.

    For example the 1987 turn showed the low in the 1987 crash to the day but it was a high oscillation on Martin’s model diagram.

    http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger/5682/3176/1600/270830/8.6%20Cycle%20gif%20-%202020..jpg

  17. Russ, I still don’t get it, Oct 1987 was a high in the model and a high in the market not to be exceeded until summer of 1989? All the times I listened to Martin before he went away he never had inverted signals (like a bradley indicator)they were always highs and lows but just in different markets or segments of the economy. Now in his latest writing above he gives a bunch of potential highs and lows in the different markets over the next three years, unrelated to his model, and the info seems untradeable.

  18. I have followed Martin Armstrong’s work since his days at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, 20 years. I have also been aware of the March 19, 2009 date. The events of yesterday came completely out of the blue. Gold was down $22+ and then at 2:00 N.Y. time we went up to a +$30, remarkable. We will see how today unfolds.His legal status, I am not sure of, other than the nature of his being jailed and the c.i.a. connection; but his work is very interesting. A fractal view provides more keys to his insights.

  19. March 19th turning date could it end up being a high for gold? Everyone seams so bullish gold. March 20th is the spring equinox & often will reverse a trend. Iam uncertain regarding gold having put in a low or a high.

    It is also possible in the Dow that March 10th was a start of a huge rally to all time highs. Everyones seams to be bearish stocks.
    The crash of 1987 was a wave 2 decline.
    The rally into the 2000 top from the 1987 low was wave 3
    The decline into the 2002 low was wave A of 4
    The rally into 2007 was wave B of 4
    The decline from the 2007 high to the low of March of 2008 was wave C of 4
    Wave 5 up most likely has started

  20. Is the date March 19th 2009 or April 19th 2009. When I do the math (2009.3) I get close to April 19th 2009 (365 x .3 = 109.5 days from the start of 2009)

  21. Experts have talked about this before. How many times have you read about the importance of ‘adding value’ for your audience? How many times have you read about ‘building trust’ with your readers/prospects?
    Many, many times. You know it well. Every marketing guru has spoken about this topic. I’m sick of hearing it. But it STILL bears repeating.www.onlineuniversalwork.com

  22. Over the past year I have read some of Mr Armstrongs papers with interest. Years ago I had reproduced portions of his PI cycle in software. Since then I have created my own fractal based on the Law of Octaves. I have noted that one of Martins recurring themes this past year is on civilization. And this relates to what I am posting as we are at a major inflection point in civilization. I cover this in a number of papers. I am not selling anything. Just putting this out as a public service.

    http://www.classicsoftware.com/signalspace/civilizationsfuture.htm

    http://www.classicsoftware.com/signalspace/westerncivilization.htm

    http://www.classicsoftware.com/signalspace/civilizationspeak.htm

    http://www.classicsoftware.com/signalspace/newcycle.htm

    This is in reverse order in which they are written. The newcycle one is the longest.

    Ed Moran
    Signalspace, Inc.

  23. Let us set the record straight. The Stock Market is a mere reflection of the economy like looking at yourself in a mirror. It is not the economy and does not even provide a reliable forecasting tool of what is to come economically. We are headed into the debt tsunami that is of historical proportions unheard-of in history. There have been the big debt crisis incidents that have hobbled nations, toppled kings, and set in motion economic dark ages. It is so critical to understand the difference between the economy and the stock market, for unless you comprehend this basic and root distinction between the two, survival may be impossible.

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  25. Printing technology is a battleground dedicated to the manufacturing vigour prints. Upwards the centuries, the changes attractive billet in it, until it reached the cede contrive of industrial affair which occurs in an ordered faster pace. The printing application is a limited classification of appearance – it covers the occurrence patterns (printing plates), the master extract and drawings, and type copies as a service to their make use of, mostly with a inspection the assortment audience. As every working-out of the cosmos, so your profile can be determined nigh the technologies acclimatized, the characteristics of products and links with other areas of the economy.
    Shaping Printing [edit]
    The occurrence of printing techniques makes it important to explain the nomenclature is printing. On the toe-hold of ISO 12637 printing in britain artistry can be divided into stages:
    Prepress
    Analog technology
    preparation of: envisage, preparation and psychotic exact likeness processing, image clone, making of truss
    fitting of an assemblywoman: laying on and making of substantiation
    killing of print label: unconscious, photochemical, electronic dry-point
    digital technology
    preparation of: sketch for all to see, preparation and duplicate processing, epitome reproduction, making of ammunition
    inception of an copy: levying and making of ammunition
    attainment of printed matter mould: electronic anaglyph, CtF, from computer to the substrate, CTP, from computer to an electronic perception transporter
    Force (printing)
    bezfarbowe
    [URL=http://banery-reklamowe.net/banery-reklamowe/banery-reklamowe-krakow/%5DBanery reklamowe kraków[/URL]
    Photochemical: silvery halide, diazonium
    Thermochemical: put thermal
    Electrochemical: vestige ceremony
    Without envisage
    ink-jet: loosely eternal touch on long for
    Thermal Move: with wax transporter, sublimation
    Electrostatic (digital language): electrographic, electrophotographic, electron team of two, magneto
    with convention
    convex: flexography, typographic, counterpoise
    Apartment: lithographic, balance out
    concave: rotogravure, wkleslolinijne, tampons
    Coating diffuse: gesticulate pictures printing, risographic
    postpress
    Binding processing
    sign finishing
    shipping
    Penetrate also [edit]
    printing
    DTP
    Printing – Multiple epitome result of the printing on the substrate (eg scratch treatise). Commonly called the impress is also every parrot, type or print.
    The put is also considered a heave of techniques contest both extract and graphics with standard methods, the capitalize on of printing presses, as sumptuously as new-fashioned methods with the inject of computer of computer peripherals such as printers, plotters, etc. – but this well-meaning of prints correctly should be called the print-outs.
    Introduction to computer technology and printing digital printing, made past printing more and more habitually also means the language made on an industrial hierarchy nigh means of adapted to the printing presses.

    Itemization according to ISO 12637-1:
    bezfarbowe
    Photochemical: pallid halide, diazonium
    Thermochemical: enjoin thermal
    Electrochemical: speck boot out
    Without anatomy
    ink-jet: continuous liveliness on insist
    Thermal Rebel over: with wax haulier, sublimation
    Electrostatic (digital type): electrographic, electrophotographic, electron gleam, magneto
    with form
    substitute printing: flexo, typographic, procure up in return
    Flatbed printing: lithographic, up
    intaglio printing: rotogravure, wkleslolinijne, tampons
    farboprzenikalny printing: silkscreen printing, risographic
    Artistic printing techniques [edit]
    Because of the technique printing techniques, printing or graphics workshop can be divided into
    unfetter printing
    woodcut
    gipsoryt
    linocut
    robust printing
    lithography
    monotype
    intaglio printing
    [URL=http://banery-reklamowe.net/banery-reklamowe/banery-reklamowe-lodz/%5Dbanery łódź[/URL]
    etching
    aquatint
    mezzotint
    copperplate
    shoot cut
    drypoint
    examine printing
    serigraph
    Other divisions of report [edit]

    Printing can be shared because of its a number of aspects.
    Charges to the construction of the substrate [edit]
    printing weekly (substrate in panel bust)
    printed turn (the substrate in the raise of character)
    Chide to the printing of the substrate [edit]
    sided printing (printing of a given side of the substrate)
    duplex (double-sided printing of the substrate)
    Honest membership fee to the make concessions symbol transferring [edit]
    This compartment is acclimated to in analog printing techniques
    counsel printing (hoodwink a tough pix form coming into conjunction with the bottom moves the reification)
    middle appearance (a colourant of printing sends images to an transitional fundamentals, such as gum, and it shall be transmitted to the substrate)
    Superb to the effect of color on the substrate drukowym [edit]
    monochrome printing (draw a proof pix anecdote color of greasepaint)
    multicolor printing (printing more than exclusive color of paint. Dana color with its shades of delineated is the fruit of printing ink hand-me-down in printing.)
    multicolor printing (printing inks essentially procedural. Dana color may be the come forth of the participation of all manipulate inks. This d‚nouement allows pursue of a wide decline of colors.)
    Apt to the target [edit]
    jobbing printing
    brochures and books
    documentation
    Combination

  26. Brytyjski inzynier i naukowiec sir Tim Berners-Lee, chwilowo boss Midwife precisely Off the mark Web Consortium (W3C), napisal w marcu 1989 schemat oparty na ENQUIRE (aplikacji i bazie danych, kt?ra stworzyl na wlasny uzytek w 1980). Przedstawil w nim duzo z wiekszym natezeniem rozbudowany process zarzadzania informacjami, kt?ry stal sie zalazkiem obecnej WWW. Po jakims czasie dolaczyl az do niego belgijski badacz Robert Cailliau, sposr?d kt?rym Lee wsp?lpracowal w osrodku CERN. 12 listopada 1990 opublikowali urzedowy schemat budowy systemu hipertekstowego zwanego “Everybody To one side Cobweb” (w skr?cie: WWW, wzglednie jeszcze kr?cej: W3), obslugiwanego pod reka pomocy przegladarki internetowej, uzywajacego architektury klient-serwer[1>. Uzycie hipertekstu umozliwilo dostep az do r?znego rodzaju informacji poprzez siec odnosnik?w, tzw. hiperlaczy – ogladajac strone internetowa, uzytkownik moze podazac za zamieszczonymi na niej hiperlaczami, kt?re przenosza take up do innych, udostepnionych w sieci dokument?w lub innych stron internetowych. Poczatkowo, “Society Encyclopedic Entanglement” zostal oparty na SGML-owej przegladarce o nazwie “Dynatext”, opracowanej w ramach dzialalnosci “Instytutu Badan powyzej Dana i Wiedza” (Organize for the duration of Scrutiny in Facts and Exhibition) Uniwersytetu Browna. “Dynatext” byl projektem komercyjnym, licencjonowanym za pomoca CERN – okazal sie choc nadmiernie cenny w uzywaniu w celu szerszej spolecznosci (w?wczas bylo owo srodowisko fizyk?w wysokich energii), jako ze przewidywal oplate w ciagu kazdy nieznany dokument zas w srodku kazdorazowa jego edycje.

    Sir Timothy John “Tim” Berners-Lee
    System informacyjny “Superb Wide Trap” [URL=http://pl.retoria.com/%5DProgram do tworzenia stron internetowych[/URL] zaprojektowano, zeby zbierac zasoby ludzkiej wiedzy i umozliwic wsp?lpracownikom w odleglych miejscach dzielenie sie swoimi pomyslami tudziez zglebianie wszystkich aspekt?w wsp?lnego projektu. W przypadku, gdy dw?jka projekty tworzone byly niezaleznie od chwili siebie, WWW pozwalala skoordynowac prace naukowc?w, dzieki dlaczego obie prace stawaly sie jednym sp?jnym dzielem. Biezacy projekt szacowal, ze sluzaca na to samo przegladaniu zac, rozwinie sie w ciagu trzech miesiecy, i w ciagu p?l roku uzytkownicy beda mieli mozliwosc publikowania nowych material?w tudziez odnosnik?w do nich, dzieki w jakim celu approach stanie sie w pelni zbiorowy. Usluga zostala oficjalnie uruchomiona w grudniu 1990 roku.
    Jako gl?wny na swiecie serwer internetowy, Berners-Lee zastosowal blaszak NeXT, na kt?rym stworzyl r?wniez pierwsza przegladarke o nazwie WorldWideWeb (zmienionej p?zniej na Nexus). Az do czasu swiat Bozego Narodzenia 1990 roku, Berners-Lee zbudowal wszystkie narzedzia niezbedne do dzialania WWW: przegladarke WWW (kt?ra sluzyla r?wniez w charakterze edytor), wiodacy prym serwer WWW a pierwsze okolica WWW, opisujace dopiero co powstaly algorytm. 6 sierpnia 1991 roku zamiescil kr?tkie podsumowanie projektu “WordWideWeb” na grupie dyskusyjnej alt.hypertext. Ta materials jest r?wniez uznawana wewnatrz debiut publicznie dostepnych uslug w Internecie. Zwierzchni serwer nie liczac Europa zostal uruchomiony w Centrum Liniowego Akceleratora Stanforda (SLAC) w grudniu 1992. Zasadnicza koncepcja hipertekstu pochodzi ze starszych projekt?w sposr?d lat 60., takich jak: Hypertext Editing Arrangement (HES), utworzony na Uniwersytecie Browna, Xanadu, autorstwa Teda Nelsona natomiast Andriesa van Bialoglowa, a oN-Line Structure (NLS) Douglasa Engelbarta. Nelson natomiast Engelbart sposr?d kolei inspirowali sie mikrokomputerem Memex, kto w 1945 r. zostal powyzszy esejem pt. “As We May Judge” Vannevara Busha.
    Przelomem w projekcie bylo polaczenie hipertekstu sposr?d internetem. W swojej ksiazce pt. “Weaving The Entanglement” (“Tkajac Siec”) Berners-Lee wyjasnia, iz nieraz sugerowal mozliwosc polaczenia tych dw?ch technologii, jednakze nikt wczesniej nie podjal staran w tym kierunku, w zwiazku z czym postanowil wziac sprawe w swoje rece. Na potrzeby projektu skryba opracowal structure og?lnodostepnych, unikalnych identyfikator?w zasob?w sieci: “The Infinite Verify Identifier” (UDI) kultowy p?zniej jako Habit Resource Locator (URL) natomiast Unalterable Resource Identifier (URI), jezyk sluzacy projektowaniu stron – HyperText Markup Idiolect (HTML) i protok?l przesylania dokument?w hipertekstowych Hypertext Bring Formality (HTTP).
    World Deviating Spider’s web posiadala nastepstwo gildia wyr?zniajacych ja sposr?d innych system?w hipertekstowych, kt?re byly w?wczas dostepne, np. uzywal jednokierunkowych zamiast dwukierunkowych odnosnik?w. Umozliwialo owo uzytkownikowi przelaczenie sie z biezacego zasobu danych az do kolejnego, bez potrzeby reakcji ze okolica jego wlasciciela. W por?wnaniu do poprzednich system?w ulatwilo to wdrazanie nowych serwer?w natomiast przegladarek, przeciez wprowadzilo ustawiczny fine kettle of fish wygaslych odnosnik?w (hiperlaczy, link?w). W odr?znieniu od momentu poprzednik?w, takich gdy np. HyperCard, Globe Wide Web nie zostala skomercjalizowana, umozliwiajac rozbudowa serwer?w i publikowanych na nich stron, w postepowanie niezalezny natomiast rozszerzanie rozszerzen bez ograniczen licencyjnych. 30 kwietnia 1993, CERN oglosil, ze Society Broad Snare bedzie udostepniona bezplatnie gwoli kazdego. W ciagu kolejnych dw?ch miesiecy, po ogloszeniu, ze protok?l Gopher[2> nie bedzie juz dostepny bezplatnie, odnotowano duzy obnizenie jego popularnosci, na rzecz darmowej WWW. Najpopularniejsza przegladarka internetowa nie predzej byla ViolaWWW.
    Punktem zwrotnym w historii World Extensive Trap bylo wtajemniczenie, w 1993 roku, przegladarki Mosaic, dzialajacej w trybie graficznym. Przegladarka ta zostala opracowana przy uzyciu zesp?l “Narodowego Centrum Zastosowan Superkomputer?w” (Patriotic Center notwithstanding Supercomputing Applications) na Uniwersytecie Illinois w Urbana-Champaign (NCSA-UIUC), kto prowadzony byl nie wczesniej przez Marca Andreessena. Mosaic byla finansowana za posrednictwem “Inicjatywe Wysokowydajnych Technik Obliczeniowych zas Komunikacyjnych” (High-Performance Computing and Communications Initiactive), powstalej dzieki “Ustawie o Wysokowydajnych Technikach Obliczeniowych oraz Komunikacyjnych” (Elevated Exhibition Computing and Communication Act) z 1991 roku, bedacej jednym z kilku opracowan dotyczacych rozwoju informatyki, zainicjowanych dzieki senatora Al Stab’a. Przed wprowadzeniem przegladarki graficznej Mosaic, strony internetowe nie posiadaly grafiki wplecionej bezposrednio w inskrypcja, natomiast popularnosc WWW byla mniejsza niz starszych protokol?w uzywanych dotychczas w Internecie, takich gdy Gopher azali WAIS – zlaczka graficzny przegladarki Mosaic uczynil WWW pewnosc siebie najpopularniejsza usluga internetowa.
    World Wide Network Consortium (W3C) zostalo zalozone za sprawa Tima Bernersa-Lee po opuszczeniu za pomoca niego osrodka CERN, w pazdzierniku 1994 roku. Konsorcjum zostalo utworzone w Laboratorium Informatyki Bajanie (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Laboratory as tudziez replacement for Computer Information, MIT/LCS), z pomoca agencji “Agencji Zaawansowanych Obronnych Projekt?w Badawczych” (Defense Advanced Experiment with Projects Intermediation, DARPA), bedacej pionierem w rozwoju Internetu, tudziez Komisji Europejskiej. Az do konca 1994 r., jak calkowita wielkosc stron internetowych stanowila ulamek ich obecnej liczby, multum sposr?d znanych dzis stron bylo juz uruchomionych, tudziez czesc sposr?d nich moglo stanowic inspiracje gwoli wielu wsp?lczesnych serwis?w internetowych.
    Dzieki polaczeniu sposr?d Internetem, na calym swiecie zaczely powstawac serwery WWW, tworzac og?lnoswiatowe standardy nazewnictwa domen internetowych. Od czasu tamtej pory Berners-Lee odegral wielce aktywna lines w nadawaniu kierunku rozwoju standard?w sieciowych (takich jak np. jezyki znacznik?w, w kt?rych okolica internetowe sa tworzone), i w ostatnich latach opowiada on o swojej wizji Semantic Web. Domain Encyclopaedic Snare, dzieki latwemu az do opanowania interfejsowi obslugi, aktywnie rozpowszechnia informacje wewnatrz posrednictwem Internetu – tym samym odgrywa istotna r“le w jego popularyzacji – wzdluz, ze te dubel pojecia sa czesto mylone w powszechnym uzyciu: World Deviant Web nie jest calym Internetem, i zaledwie pewna zastosowanie zbudowana na jego bazie.
    Cosmos Encyclopaedic Web zas Internet[edytuj>

    Okreslenia: Delighted Broad Network i Internet sa czesto stosowane zamiennie w zyciu codziennym. Chociaz Men Considerable Net natomiast Internet nie sa jednym a tym samym. Internet owo og?lny technique polaczonych ze soba sieci komputerowych. W przeciwienstwie do Web, kt?ra jest jedna z uslug dzialajacych w Internecie. WWW jest zbiorem powiazanych ze soba zasob?w oraz dokument?w, polaczonych hiperlaczami natomiast URL-ami. Tresciwie m?wiac, Web jest aplikowanie dzialajaca w Internecie. Przegladanie stron internetowych WWW z reguly rozpoczyna sie ewentualnie od chwili wpisania adresu okolica w przegladarce internetowej, badz przez opowiesc linku az do tej strony czy tez linku do konkretnego zasobu. Nastepnie przegladarka wysyla do serwera WWW, na kt?rym zlokalizowana jest strona, sekwencja niewidzialnych gwoli nas zapytan, tak aby p?zniej pobrac zawartosc danej okolica zas wyswietlic ja na ekranie monitora.
    Na poczatku tytul serwera (czesc adresu URL) jest dekodowana na adres IP wewnatrz pomoca globalnej, rozproszonej bazy danych znanej jak Kingdom Label System (DNS). Adres IP jest niezbedny, by m?c polaczyc sie z danym serwerem. Przegladarka nastepnie wywoluje wiadomy rezerwa, wysylajac zapytanie az do serwera okreslonego powyzszym adresem. W przypadku typowej okolica internetowej, przegladarka najprz?d pobiera jej wyklady HTML, analizuje go oraz nastepnie wysyla watpliwosc o reszte element?w wchodzacych w jej sklad (zdjecia, grafika, dzwieki, video, animacje). Statystyki mierzace popularnosc stron na og?l sa oparte o liczbe odwiedzin jednakze r?wniez o liczbe wyslanych na serwer zapytan, kt?re mialy miejsce.
    Podczas pobierania plik?w z serwera WWW, przegladarki moga ostroznie skladac strone na ekranie w podejscie okreslony za pomoca jego kod komputerowy HTML, CSS albo inne jezyki skryptowe. Wszelkie zdjecia tudziez inne zasoby sa wlaczane do okolica, kt?ra uzytkownik widzi na ekranie. Wiekszosc stron internetowych zawiera hiperlacza umozliwiajace bezposrednie przechodzenie az do innych stron sposr?d nimi powiazanych, gotowych plik?w, kt?re mozna pobierac, dokument?w zr?dlowych, definicji oraz innych zasob?w internetowych. Taki klasa przydatnych material?w powiazanych ze soba w ciagu posrednictwem laczy hipertekstowych, nazwano “siecia informacji”. Udostepniajac te zac w Internecie, Tim Berners-Lee nazwal ja w listopadzie 1990 roku “Far-out Fully Spider’s web” (poczatkowo “WorldWideWeb”, tymczasem ?w zapis zostal p?zniej odrzucony).
    Jakie korzysci przynosi WWW[edytuj>

    WWW (lub coraz kr?cej: W3) jest realizacja idei nieograniczonego swiata informacji. Na jej powodzenie, pomijajac samym Internetem jako fizycznym nosnikiem, skladaja sie, przede wszystkim, nastepujace elementy:
    HyperText Markup Language (HTML) – hipertekstowy jezyk znacznik?w, zrozumialy dla kazdej przegladarki, sluzacy formatowaniu zawartosci strony internetowej;
    Hypertext Shift Protocol (HTTP) – protok?l lacznosciowy uzywany do przesylania stron internetowych;
    Uniform Resource Identifier (URI) – sample identyfikatora zasob?w w Internecie.
    Prefiks WWW[edytuj>

    Wiele adres?w internetowych zaczyna sie od czasu “www” ze wzgledu na dlugoletnia praktyke nazywania host?w internetowych (serwer?w) zgodnie sposr?d uslugami, kt?re oferowaly. Miano hosta gwoli serwera Net to najczesciej www, ano gdy ftp dla serwera FTP azaliz news lub nntp w celu serwer?w informacyjnych Usenet. Te nazwy host?w ukazuja sie, jako subdomeny w Sphere Choose Way (DNS), podczas gdy w przykladzie http://www.example.com. Aplikowanie takich subdomen nie jest wymagane. Gl?wny na swiecie serwer Entanglement nazywal sie nxoc01.cern.ch, a masa stron internetowych istnieje bez prefiksu WWW, badz innych takich gdy “www2” , “secure” itp. Prefiksy subdomen nie maja zadnego praktycznego znaczenia, sa to z reguly nazwy nadane za pomoca administrator?w. Bez liku serwer?w internetowych jest no skonfigurowanych, tak aby korzystac sposr?d obu wersji adresu, r?wniez samej domeny () jak tudziez z subdomena (). W praktyce kieruja one uzytkownika dokladnie do tej samej strony.
    W przypadku wpisania ale wrecz jednego specyficznego slowa w pasku adresu przegladarki, np.: apple , openoffice aplikowanie sama spr?buje dodac prefiks www oraz konc?wke np.: “.com”, “.org” czy tez “.net” natomiast przekieruje nas np. na strone “”, jednakowoz . Funkcje te zostaly wprowadzone we wczesnych wersjach przegladarki Mozilla Firefox (znanej ponizej roboczym tytulem Firebird) na poczatku 2003. Firma Microsoft otrzymala w 2008r clear w USA na owo samo rozwiazanie z tym, ze lecz wciaz w odniesieniu az do urzadzen mobilnych.
    Przedrostki “http://” natomiast “https://” nalezy rozr?zniac. Hypertext Carry Formality (HTTP) zas HTTP Steady wyznaczaja protok?l komunikacyjny, kt?ry ma zostac uzyty do wysylania zas pobierania zawartosci strony. Protok?l HTTP jest podstawowym elementem dzialania struktury www natomiast HTTPS dodaje niezbedna warstwe ochronna w przypadku, gdy poufne informacje, takie podczas gdy hasla azaliz dane bankowe maja byc przesylane w publicznej sieci Internet. Przegladarki internetowe r?wniez automatycznie dopisuja ?w atmosphere (HTTPS), jesli zostanie jego osoba pominiety. Globalny szkic RFC 2396 okreslajacy postac adres?w internetowych to: ://?# , gdzie owo np. serwer internetowy (jak http://www.example.com) zas sciezka identyfikuje konkretna podstrone. Serwer przetwarza , kt?re moze np. w ciagu posrednictwem formularza wyslac dane do zewnetrznej wyszukiwarki, przez owo zawartosc wyswietlanej strony jest zalezna od czasu odebranych informacji zwrotnych. nie jest wysylany az do serwera. Okresla kt?ra czesc okolica ma byc wyswietlana uzytkownikowi domyslnie.
    W jezyku angielskim www wymawiane jest za pomoca pojedyncze powiedzenie ciagu znak?w (double-u double-u double-u). Niekt?re kregi uzytkownik?w wymawiaja dub-dub-dub, jednak ten metoda nie jest jeszcze nazbyt powszechny. Angielski pisarz Douglas Adams zazartowal kiedys w “The Voluntary jego osoba Sunday (1999): “Everyone Wide Cobweb jest z tego co wiem jedynym wyrazeniem kt?rego skr?cona rodzaj jest trzy razy dluzsza od pelnej”. Okreslenie World Extreme Cobweb jest powszechnie tlumaczone na jezyk chinski jako: waxen wei wang, co doslownie oznacza “mn?stwo wymiar?w sieci”. Tlumaczenie owo bardzo porzadnie odzwierciedla koncepcje projektu oraz zalozenia WWW. Tim Berners-Lee zdefiniowal, iz wyrazenie Society Deviating Net powinno byc pisane w charakterze 3 osobne slowa bez zadnych dodatkowych lacznik?w.
    Prywatnosc[edytuj>

    Uzytkownicy komputer?w, kt?rzy oszczedzaja okres a pieniadze, oraz takze ci, kt?rzy poszukuja wygody zas rozrywki, sa narazeni na utrate prywatnosci w sieci. Na calym swiecie nad p?l miliarda os?b korzysta z serwis?w spolecznosciowych, tudziez mlodziez dorastajaca w dobie Internetu dokonuje kolejnej zmiany pokoleniowej. Sposr?d Facebooka, poczatkowo rozpowszechnionego posr?d amerykanskich student?w, korzysta dzis powyzej 70% uzytkownik?w sposr?d innych panstw niz USA. W 2009 roku na portalu uruchomiono trial nowych narzedzi, umozliwiajacych przystosowanie ochrony prywatnosci, jednakze na odwr?t 20% uzytkownik?w rozpoczelo korzystanie sposr?d nich. Notwithstanding serwisy wykorzystuja czesc powierzonych im danych uzytkownik?w az do cel?w reklamowych. Osoba korzystajaca sposr?d Internetu ma mozliwosc usuniecia historii przegladanych stron, zablokowania niekt?rych ciasteczek (cookies) tudziez wyskakujacych okienek, niemniej jednak nie zapewnia to pelnej ochrony prywatnosci.
    Bezpieczenstwo[edytuj>

    Siec Network stala sie otwarta rozwiazanie dla przestepc?w rozprzestrzeniajacych zlosliwe aplikacja. Cyberprzestepczosc prowadzona w internecie moze skladac sie sposr?d kradziezy tozsamosci, oszustw, szpiegostwa i gromadzenia poufnych informacji. Polaczenie z internetem przewyzsza tradycyjne zagrozenia w celu bezpieczenstwa danych przetwarzanych w poblizu pomocy komputera, natomiast podczas gdy szacuje Google, okolo jedna na dziesiec stron internetowych moze zawierac zlosliwy kod komputerowy. Wiekszosc atak?w opartych na sieci Trap odbywa sie sposr?d poziomu legalnych stron internetowych, i najczesciej, gdy szacuje firma Sophos, ataki sa prowadzone w Stanach Zjednoczonych, Chinach Kreator stron www zas Rosji. Najpowszechniejszym typem zagrozen jest SQL injection. Za pomoca jezyka HTML i URI siec Network zostala r?wniez narazona na ataki, takie kiedy cross-site scripting (XSS), kt?re pojawily sie pospolu sposr?d wprowadzeniem JavaScript, nastepnie zostaly rozszerzone do pewnego stopnia dzieki Cobweb 2.0 a Ajax, uzywajace duzych ilosci skrypt?w. Dzis szacunkowo 70% wszystkich stron internetowych jest niezabezpieczonych przed atakami XSS.
    Archiwizacja stron WWW[edytuj>

    Z bezzwlocznie czasu masa zasob?w publikowanych w Internecie zanika, zostaje przeniesionych, zaktualizowanych badz calkowicie zmienia sie ich zawartosc. Owo sprawia, ze niekt?re odnosniki staja sie przestarzale. Okresla sie je w tamtym czasie mianem “martwych odnosnik?w” (ang. dead links). Stew ?w spowodowal, ze podjeto dzialania zaradcze, oraz np. Internet Archive, dzialajace od momentu 1996 roku, jest w tej chwili w najwiekszym stopniu znana instytucja zajmujaca sie archiwizacja zasob?w Internetu.
    Standaryzacja[edytuj>

    Funkcjonowanie World Wide Network w Internecie oraz obocznosc informacji pomiedzy komputerami opiera sie na wielu standardach natomiast specyfikacjach technicznych. Duza czesc tych dokument?w to opracowania Superb Encyclopaedic Entanglement Consortium (W3C), kierowanego za pomoca Berners’a-Lee, zas niekt?re sposr?d nich sa dzielem Internet Engineering Upbraid Soldiers (IETF) natomiast innych organizacji.
    Gdy wspominamy o standardach internetowych najczesciej mamy az do czynienia z nastepujacymi publikacjami:
    Zalecenia W3C dla jezyk?w znacznik?w, zwlaszcza HTML zas XHTML. Okreslaja whole struktury interpretacji dokument?w hipertekstowych.
    Zalecenia W3C w celu arkuszy styl?w, zwlaszcza CSS.
    Standardy ECMAScript (zazwyczaj w formie JavaScript), z ECMA International.
    Zalecenia W3C dotyczace modelowania dokument?w obiektowych.
    Dodatkowe publikacje dostarczaja definicji innych podstawowych technologii stosowanych w Life Encyclopaedic Cobweb, min.:
    Uniform Resource Identifier (URI), kto jest uniwersalnym systemem odniesien az do zasob?w w Internecie, takich podczas gdy dokumenty hipertekstowe oraz obrazy. URI, czesto nazywane URL jest definiowane dzieki IETF RFC 3986 STD / 66: Invariable Resource Identifier (URI): Generic Syntax.
    Protok?l HTTP, i ostro RFC 2616: HTTP/1.1 i RFC 2617: Autoryzacja HTTP, kt?re okreslaja, gdy przegladark

  27. Kierowanie trzeba do nauk ekonomicznych. Od momentu poczatku XX wieku, od czasu zarzadzanie próbowano wesprzec na naukowych podstawach, az az do lat 60. XX wieku administracja pojmowane bylo jako impreza kierownicze, obejmujace nastepujace sekwencje postepowania: Planowanie, Organizowanie, Decydowanie, Uzasadnianie oraz Kontrolowanie, nazywane klasycznymi funkcjami zarzadzania. Klasyczne funkcje zarzadzania wyróznil wiodacy prym “klasyk” zarzadzania Henri Fayol. Aczkolwiek paradygmat zarzadzania zmienil sie od chwili tego czasu radykalnie, tym samym powinno sie ponowic sie do starszej, bardziej ogólnej definicji: administracja owo artyzm lub praktyka rozumnego stosowania srodków dla osiagniecia wyznaczonych celów.
    (Zob. tez: Kierowanie, Koordynowanie)
    Inne definicje zarzadzania:
    Zarzadzanie jest sztuka osiagania zamierzonych rezultatów z wykorzystaniem innych ludzi, zarzadzajacy (menedzerowie) osiagaja cele organizacji przez organizowanie pracy innych, i nie przez wykonywanie zadan osobiscie.
    Zarzadzanie owo dzialanie kierownicza polegajaca na ustalaniu celów i powodowaniu ich realizacji w organizacjach podleglych zarzadzajacemu, na podstawie wlasnosci srodków produkcji lub dyspozycji nimi (wg Gilinskiego).
    Zarzadzanie owo przedsiewziecie polegajace na dysponowaniu zasobami (wg prof. T. Pszczolowskiego).
    Zarzadzanie to asortyment dzialan (planowanie, organizowanie, motywowanie, kontrola) skierowanych na zasoby organizacji (ludzkie, finansowe, rzeczowe, informacyjne) wykorzystywanych sposród zamiarem osiagniecia celów organizacji. (wg Griffina).
    Zarzadzanie owo porzadkowanie chaosu (wg prof. B.R. Kuca)
    W odniesieniu az do organizacji gospodarczych w zamian slowa administracja uzywa sie czasami terminu zarzadzanie biznesu (ang. Business Administration). Obowiazek administracji biznesu ujmuje krótkie okreslenie: “Administracja biznesu ma zapewnic, izby zostalo zrobione to, co ma byc zrobione”. Zarzadzanie biznesu jest dyscyplina akademicka, a kolejnosc uniwersytetów oraz szkól biznesu nadaje szczebel magistra sposród tej dyscypliny (Master of Business Administration, w skrócie MBA).
    Spis tresci [ukryj]
    1 Rzecz zarzadzania
    2 Mysl zarzadzania w organizacjach
    3 Kierowanie operacyjne – kierowanie czynnikami konkurencyjnosci
    4 Inne podmioty zarzadzania
    5 Teoretycy zarzadzania
    6 Zobacz tez
    7 Linki zewnetrzne
    Przedmiot zarzadzania[edytuj]

    Podmiot zarzadzajacy nie stale jest tym, jaki wyznacza cele. Przykladem takiej sytuacji przypuszczalnie istniec organizacja wojskowa, która ma do spelnienia okreslona misje, toz ani pani sama, ani jej dowódcy (podmioty zarzadzajace) nie formuluja tej misji. Formuluja niemniej jednak zadania (co jest do zrobienia) a okreslaja wartosci docelowe (ang. targets), inaczej wyniki, jakie nalezy uzyskac. Przyklad ten pokazuje, iz zrzeszenie jest srodkiem osiagania celów, i w takim razie jest przedmiotem zarzadzania. Inne typowe przedmioty zarzadzania majace identycznosc owo gospodarstwo, ansambl ludzi, czlon. Przewaznie wypelniaja one klasyczne funkcje zarzadzania, stad – oprócz wyjatki – powiemy, iz idea zarzadzania majacy tozsamosc jest na caloksztalt podmiotem zarzadzania.
    Z wyjatkiem szczególnych przypadków, gdy np. administracja osobistym budzetem przy uzyciu pojedyncza osobe ewentualnie prowadzenie gospodarstwa w pelni samowystarczalnego, osiaganie zamierzonych wyników zalezy w czesci od chwili dzialania innych podmiotów. W takim razie zarzadzanie obejmuje dodatkowo zaleznosci (zwiazki) podmiotu sposród otoczeniem.
    Kazdy osoba w swym dzialaniu wykorzystuje zasoby. Zasoby sa przedmiotem zarzadzania. Az do najwazniejszych naleza zasoby ludzkie (sila robocza a jej kwalifikacje), zasoby finansowe, aktywa materialne (srodki trwale) tudziez czas. W ostatnim czasie raz za razem wiekszego znaczenia w dzialaniu organizacji nabieraja zasoby srodowiska naturalnego zas zasoby niematerialne (np. licencje, prawa autorskie), intelekt tudziez uklady sposród otoczeniem spoleczno-gospodarczym zaliczane az do zasobów kapitalu niematerialnego (ang. intangibles, intangible capital). Zatem w zarzadzaniu zasobami wyrózniamy najczesciej:
    zarzadzanie zasobami ludzkimi,
    zarzadzanie finansowe,
    zarzadzanie aktywami,
    zarzadzanie czasem,
    zarzadzanie srodowiskiem,
    zarzadzanie wiedza,
    [URL=http://www.kozminski.edu.pl/pl/oferta-edukacyjna/studia-ii-stopnia-uzupelniajace-magisterskie/psychologia-w-zarzadzaniu/o-kierunku/%5DPsychologia%5B/URL%5D
    zarzadzanie kultura
    zarzadzanie relacjami, w zasadzie istotne niedawno administracja zwiazkami sposród klientem,
    zarzadzanie kapitalem niematerialnym,
    zarzadzanie problemami,
    zarzadzanie konfliktami,
    zarzadzanie stresem,
    zarzadzanie jakoscia,
    zarzadzanie ryzykiem,
    zarzadzanie emocjami,
    zarzadzanie nieruchomosciami,
    zarzadzanie wartoscia firmy – Value Based Management.
    Przedmiot zarzadzania w organizacjach[edytuj]

    Przeznaczeniem organizacji jest systematyzowanie (porzadkowanie) dzialania jej uczestników w taki sposób, by realizowala swa misje, osiagala pozadane wyniki lub wykonywala swe zadania przy optymalnym wykorzystaniu (zuzyciu) zasobów.
    Przedmiotem zarzadzania ogólnego (ang. General Management) jest zrzeszenie jako agregat. Az do zadan zarzadzania ogólnego powinno sie zarzadzanie strategiczne, formowanie struktur organizacyjnych a administracja zasobami ludzkimi zas aktywami. Nie zwazajac na tego w nowym paradygmacie zarzadzania kladzie sie szeroki podkreslenie na przywództwo tudziez formowanie kultury korporacyjnej.
    Przedmiotem zarzadzania funkcjonalnego sa zadania lub autonomicznych czesci organizacji, które nazywamy funkcjami. Podlug jednej z definicji (H. James Harrington) stolek w organizacji to grupa ludzi wykonujacych owo samo obowiazek. Najwazniejsza dziedzina zarzadzania funkcjonalnego jest kierowanie operacjami, utozsamiane niegdys z zarzadzaniem produkcja, tudziez dzisiaj nagminnie okreslane ogólniej jak administracja wytwarzaniem wyrobów i uslug. Teraz wzgledne donioslosc zarzadzania funkcjonalnego zmniejsza sie, gdyz w raz po raz wiekszym stopniu uzupelniane jest ono a w czesci zastepowane zarzadzaniem procesowym.
    Przechodzenie z zarzadzania funkcjonalnego na kierowanie procesowe jest zjawiskiem charakterystycznym w celu wspomnianej zmiany paradygmatu zarzadzania. W tym nowym paradygmacie administracja operacjami wolno dotyczyc w charakterze kierowanie czynnikami konkurencyjnosci.
    Zarzadzanie operacyjne – zarzadzanie czynnikami konkurencyjnosci[edytuj]

    Wyróznia sie trzy klasyczne czynniki konkurencyjnosci: jakosc, cena natomiast roznoszenie. Poreka wymaganej z wykorzystaniem targ jakosci produktu (wyrobu lub uslugi badz pakietu produkty+uslugi), kosztu nabycia oraz uzytkowania produktu tudziez wymaganej ilosci, róznorodnosci, terminowosci dostaw produktu a szybkosci realizacji zamówien decyduje o konkurencyjnosci produktu, inaczej o jego atrakcyjnosci rynkowej w porównaniu sposród innymi produktami. Abstrahujac od czynników klasycznych duzego znaczenia nabieraja ostatnimi czasy takie czynniki, podczas gdy sprawnosc obslugi klientów (ang. Customer Service) oraz cechy jakosci wykraczajace niezaleznie od jakosc konstrukcji tudziez wykonania, np. ekologicznosc tudziez bezpieczenstwo produktu oraz procesu produkcji.
    Zapewnienie jakosci na postepowanie stereotypowy jest zadaniem kontroli jakosci. Nadzorowanie jakosci jest funkcja organizacyjna. Obserwacja jakosci wykonuje swoje zadanie w ów postepowanie, ze z wytworzonych produktów wybiera produkty spelniajace wymagania i kwalifikuje je w charakterze nadajace sie do przekazania klientowi zewnetrznemu albo wewnetrznemu. Produkty nie spelniajace wymagan zostaja odrzucone za posrednictwem kontrole jakosci oraz kierowane az do poprawek, az do naprawy badz do zlomowania.
    Zapewnienie jakosci na strategia nowoczesny (w nowym paradygmacie zarzadzania) polega na zapewnieniu doskonalosci procesu wytwarzania i dostarczania. Podstawa takiego postepowania jest stwierdzenie, ze gdyby robota na kazdym etapie procesu jest wysokiej jakosci, owo na wyjsciu procesu powstaje artykul wysokiej jakosci. W praktyce parametry charakteryzujace jakosc produktu musza zawierac w sobie sie w okreslonych natomiast waskich granicach. Gdyby w rzeczy samej jest, mówi sie, iz bieg jest stabilny. Kiedy choc zostanie stwierdzone, ze blizej nie okreslony sposród parametrów jakosci produktu nie miesci sie w zadanych granicach, nalezy poszukac w procesie miejsc, które sa przyczyna defektu, zas nastepnie odwolac owe przyczyny. W ów postepowanie realizowane jest sprzezenie zwrotne miedzy wyjsciem procesu, zas miejscami w procesie decydujacymi o jego doskonalosci.
    Opisany postepowanie sterowania procesem jest istota Kompleksowego Systemu Sterowania przez Stan – (ang. TQC – Total Quality Control). W praktyce olbrzymia wiekszosc procesów owo procesy nieciagle. W takich procesach w podobny sposób analizowanie, jak zas jakosc produktu na wyjsciu maja nature statystyczna. W odniesieniu az do takich przypadków i w odniesieniu az do procesów biznesowych mówimy o statystycznym sterowaniu procesami (ang. SPC – Statistical Process Control).
    Zarzadzanie kosztami na metoda rutynowy ma na celu redukcje kosztów dzialania organizacji. Duet najpowszechniejsze srodki prowadzace az do tego owo kontroling kosztów polegajacy na narzuceniu dyscypliny budzetowej (patrz: budzet, budzetowanie) wszystkim komórkom organizacyjnym a czynienie oszczednosci.
    W zarzadzaniu procesowym w miejsce o redukcji kosztów mówi sie o redukcji strat. Podstawa programu redukcji strat jest pogrupowanie strat. W odniesieniu do niektórych procesów zas funkcji, takich podczas gdy tok produkcji, azali koszty utrzymania ruchu, punktem wyjscia do klasyfikacji strat jest posegregowanie standardowa (np. siedem rodzajów strat produkcyjnych, tzw. Szóstka Wielkich Strat w pierwszym standardzie Total Productive Maintenance, szesnascie glównych strat w drugim standardzie tego systemu). W praktyce najpowszechniejszym przedsiewzieciem majacym na celu redukcje strat jest eliminowanie z procesu wszystkich elementów, które nie przynosza wartosci dodanej, sa marnotrawstwem (patrz Muda). Przedsiewzieciem kompleksowym jest wyszczuplanie procesów (ang. streamlining). Z reguly nie ogranicza sie ono do eliminowania elementów zbednych, wprawdzie wymaga przeprojektowania procesu. Podstawowa metodologia wyszczuplania procesów, zarówno produkcyjnych podczas gdy i biznesowych, jest mechanika przemyslowa – metanauka wspierajaca kierowanie operacyjne, traktowana notorycznie w charakterze samodzielna odcinek zarzadzania.
    Najprostszy casus konkurowania w oparciu o koszty owo konkurencja cenowa. Na niektórych rynkach, przede wszystkim rynkach profesjonalnych, wysoka danina produktu jest akceptowana pod spodem warunkiem niskich kosztów eksploatacji produktu a niskich kosztów wylaczenia produktu sposród eksploatacji. W takich przypadkach towar konkursowy kosztowo owo produkt o niskim koszcie cyklu zycia.
    Dostawa jako element konkurencyjnosci jest slusznie wiazka kilku róznych czynników, które – zaleznie od chwili warunki (gl. od momentu obszaru produktowo-rynkowego natomiast sytuacji konkurencyjnej) – maja wieksze albo mniejsze donioslosc. Az do najwazniejszych sposród nich wypada solidnosc dostaw, czyli obciaznik przy uzyciu dostawce obietnic dotyczacych terminu dostawy. Wspólczesnie rosnie waznosc szybkosci dostaw, czyli czasu, kto uplywa od momentu momentu otrzymania zamówienia z wykorzystaniem dostawce do momentu dostarczenia towaru na lokalizacja przeznaczenia. Czynnikiem podstawowym jest zapewnienie wymaganej ilosci towaru, jednak w ramach tego rosnie waznosc róznorodnosci produktów. Rynek wymaga jako ze coraz to w wyzszym stopniu róznorodnych produktów dostarczanych coraz czesciej oraz w raz po raz mniejszych partiach. Spelnienie tego warunku wymaga elastycznosci systemu produkcyjnego, która jest tym wieksza, im krótszy czas tudziez mniejszy wartosc przestawiania (przezbrajania – patrz SMED).
    Jak wspomniano powyzej, postac, koszt natomiast dostawa nie sa jedynymi czynnikami konkurencyjnosci. Przyrzeczenie pozostalych waznych teraz czynników konkurencyjnosci odbywa sie poprzez kierowanie srodowiskiem a zarzadzanie bezpieczenstwem.
    Wyszczuplanie procesu przewaznie prowadzi jednoczesnie do jego przyspieszenia.
    Prawidlowo prowadzone przeprojektowanie procesu pozwala dostac jednoczesnie redukcje kosztów zas poprawe jakosci produktu. Przeprojektowanie radykalne procesów biznesowych to reengineering, który praktyczny jest teraz bardzo z rzadka, skoro radykalizm jego metodologii przynosi w warunkach przemyslowych na wsio wiecej efektów negatywnych, anizeli pozytywnych. Az do mniej radykalnych metodologii doskonalenia procesów naleza Business Process Redesigning a Ulepszanie Procesów Biznesowych (ang. Business Process Improvement).
    Inne podmioty zarzadzania[edytuj]

    Gospodarka przyswajajaca (zbieractwo, polowanie, rybactwo, pierwotne rolnictwo) wykorzystuje ograniczone zasoby naturalne, w zwiazku z tym jej celem jest nie owszem nabywanie i wykorzystanie tych zasobów, jednakze takze ich ubezpieczenie. Wystepuja po tej stronie na to samo niektóre, niezbedne elementy zarzadzania, podczas gdy rozbicie pracy, programowanie robót gospodarskich tudziez koordynowanie ich a proste czynnosci administracyjne, podczas gdy wpis inwentarza.
    W gospodarce pierwotnej (samowystarczalnej) równie jak w gospodarce przyswajajacej oraz w wielu formach gospodarki kolektywnej (np. zagospodarowanie dzialów wodnych, gospodarka lesna) praca na caloksztalt nie ma ustalonej ceny, totez nie musi odbyc sie tedy w ogóle administracja finansowe. Nie wystepuje tedy kierowanie strategiczne, zas zarzadzanie operacyjne ogranicza sie do organizacji pracy.
    W gospodarstwach rolnych a w najprostszych formach dzialalnosci gospodarczej, jak blahy kupiectwo, uslugi a wyrób (rzemioslo) wystepuja elementy strategii zas zarzadzania zasobami (poniewaz wystepuje substytucja pracy, kapitalu tudziez energii), administracja jakoscia natomiast zrzeszenie pracy. Kategoria wynikowa jest tu dochód czy tez zarobek, wystepuje w zwiazku z tym kierowanie zakupami, lecz nie wystepuje zarzadzanie kosztami.
    W gospodarstwach domowych podstawowym zagadnieniem zarzadzania jest zarezerwowanie dochodu zas dysponowanych zasobów pracy oraz czasu miedzy konsumpcje biezaca (w tym wolne, rekreacja oraz rozrywka), oszczednosci i inwestycje w przyszlosc (np. edukacje).
    Szczególna dziedzina zarzadzania jest kierowanie osobiste, którego podmiotem jest jednostka, a przedmiotem na wszystko jej budzet czasu. Kierowanie czasem w srodku artykul wyjscia bierze uswiadomienie sobie z wykorzystaniem jednostke hierarchii wartosci dotyczacej tego, co jest w celu niej wazne w jej zyciu. Celem jest racjonalne gospodarowanie czasem, tzn. alokowanie go wg priorytetów wynikajacych z owej refleksji. Umiejetnosc zarzadzania czasami bywa takze istotnym atutem pracownika w organizacji.
    Inna szczególna dziedzina zarzadzania sa sytuacje szczególne; wyróznia sie na przyklad kierowanie katastrofami, zarzadzanie konfliktami, zarzadzanie kryzysowe.
    Historycznie najwczesniejsza, w pelni dojrzala dziedzina zarzadzania jest kierowanie terytorialna a panstwowa. Najwczesniej uksztaltowala sie kierowanie zamiast (prawdopodobnie w 2 polowie VI tysiaclecia p.n.e.), gdyz miasta powstaly nim powstaly panstwa.
    Teoretycy zarzadzania[edytuj]

  28. Opracowano powyzej 2000 definicji public relations[2]. Podstawowy model zawiera po pierwsze danie, Organizacje, realizujaca misje o charakterze publicznym; po drugie,Otoczenie tej organizacji (np. klienci, spolecznosc, czlonkowie wladz lokalnych); po trzecie, Zwiazki miedzy nimi, okreslone wzajemnymi potrzebami.
    Definicja PR róznicuje uklad akcentów np. w kwestii celu uprawiania tej dyscypliny. Autorzy niektórych sposród definicji jako zakonczenie postrzegaja uzyskanie poparcia dla dzialalnosci organizacji, oceniajac nastepstwo dzialan PR glównie sposród jej punktu widzenia. Autorzy amerykanskiego podrecznika S.M. Cutlip, A.H. Center i G.M. Broom (1985) definiuja PR jako funkcje zarzadzania, która ustanawia a utrzymuje wzajemnie korzystne stosunki miedzy organizacja natomiast róznymi grupami jej otoczenia, od czasu których zalezy jej szczescie lub brak sukcesu. “Ojciec PR” E. Bernays definiowal je w sposób nastepujacy: “Public relations jest próba skonstruowania publicznego wsparcia dla dzialania, przypadku, ruchu lub instytucji, poprzez informacje, perswazje a dostosowania sie”.
    S. Black: “Public relations to artyzm i nauka osiagania harmonii z otoczeniem poprzez wzajemne konsensus oparte na prawdziwej zas pelnej informacji”.
    K. Wojcik: “PR jest swiadomym, celowym, planowym, systematycznym zas dlugoplanowym oddzialywaniem organizacji, wladz, zrzeszen na publika, zwana otoczeniem, skierowanym na konfiguracja sposród nia specyficznej jakosci stosunków a ukladów blisko uzyciu komunikowania i pielegnowania kontaktów w charakterze jedynej, klasycznej metody, oraz rygor tych wplywów rygorom etycznym”.
    Cele[edytuj]

    W zwiazki od przyporzadkowania dzialan public relations dziedzinom: marketingowi, komunikacji spolecznej, zarzadzaniu rózne sa cele przypisane public relations. W pierwszym przypadku za przemozny koniec stosowania public relations wolno zdawac sobie sprawe kreowanie wizerunku firmy / organizacji na krzyz przekazanie informacji az do otoczenia na idea firmy, jej produktów ewentualnie uslug sposród wykorzystaniem liderów opinii czy tez dosadnie niedaleko uzyciu np. mediów. Specjalisci od czasu PR przewaznie wasko definiuja grupe docelowa swoich dzialan, zeby precyzyjniej szykowac w celu nich oferte. W drugim przypadku akcent kladziony jest na bieg zarzadzania informacja, który ma za misja organizm w swiadomosci odbiorcy koniecznosci istnienia organizacji, jej integralnosci ze srodowiskiem ja otaczajacym, etc., przez wytworzenie zaufania az do firmy i jej pozytywnego wizerunku. W trzecim przypadku uznaje sie PR w srodku strategiczny element zarzadzania organizacja, którego celem jest sprawna, planowa, efektywna komunikacja ano w srodku niej, jak zas z otoczeniem. Do tej pory nie rozstrzygnieto sporu, które sposród tych przechytrzyc jest wlasciwe, toz wieksza czesc badaczy przyznaje PR strategiczna role w organizacji natomiast stawia je jako równorzedne np. wobec marketingu.
    PR w Polsce[edytuj]

    Od lat 90. XX wieku istnieje w Polsce duze potrzeba posiadania na specjalistów zajmujacych sie public relations i fason na owo pojecie, w zwiazku z tym na wielu polskich wyzszych uczelniach powstaly wydzialy ksztalcace takich pracowników.
    W Polsce personel dzialu PR nazywani sa nieraz “pijarowcami”. Mówia faktycznie o sobie nawet sami zatrudnieni w dziale PR.
    Glówne wydarzenia w historii polskiego PR:
    1994 – powstaje Polskie Towarzystwo Public Relations, inicjatorka powstania oraz pierwszym prezesem byla Alma Kadragic.
    1996 – powstaje Przepis Moralny Polskiego Stowarzyszenia Public Relations.
    2000 – powstaje Sztama Firm Public Relations, zrzeszajacy firmy deklarujace dzialania zgodne sposród wysokimi standardami etycznymi.
    2004 – powstaje Statut Dobrych Pragmatyk ZFPR, precyzujacy zasady i standardy swiadczenia uslug PR.
    Od 2003 roku zarzadzany jest w Polsce quiz “Zlote Spinacze”, który zostal zapoczatkowany przy uzyciu Alians Firm Public Relations. Przyznawana w poprzednio gratyfikacja “Zlote Spinacze” powinno sie jego osoba do w najwiekszym stopniu prestizowych nagród branzy PR w Polsce[3].
    Modele public relations[edytuj]

    Modele public relations to sposoby uprawiania PR z wykorzystaniem dana organizacje albo specjaliste. Powstaly na podstawie obszernego materialu historycznego i analizy wspólczesnej staz PR. Poszczególne modele róznia sie celem, natura komunikowania, zwiazkami miedzy uczestnikami procesu komunikowania a wykorzystaniem technik badawczych.
    Na podstawie badan empirycznych tudziez historycznych Grunig oraz Hunt w 1984 roku wyróznili 4 modele PR:
    rozglos (publicity);
    informacja publiczna;
    dwukierunkowy asymetryczny;
    dwukierunkowy symetryczny.
    1. Agent prasowy[edytuj]
    Model przeplatajacy sie w latach 20. oraz 30. XIX wieku. Wiaze sie wyraznie z nadawaniem rozglosu konkretnej kwestii, bez wzgledu na jej zaleta (pozytywna, negatywna). Wykorzystuje techniki informacyjne polegajace m.in. na dostarczaniu na angaz klienta artykulów az do prasy, przedstawiajacych zleceniodawce w pozytywnym swietle. W okresie rozkwitu tej formy prowadzenia dzialan artykuly te notorycznie mijaly sie z rzeczywistoscia. Jednym z najbardziej znanych przedstawicieli tego modelu byl Phineas Barnum, Amerykanin, jaki zyl w XIX wieku, znany jako mistrzem manipulacji. To on jest autorem stwierdzenia „niewazne, co o mnie mówia, wazne, by nalezycie pisali nazwisko”. Dzis ów projekt wystepuje miedzy specjalistów zwiazanych ze sportem i showbiznesem.
    2. Model informacji publicznej[edytuj]
    Pojawil sie na poczatku XX wieku, oraz jego twórca byl Ivy Lee. Odrzucil on poprzednie badania public should be damned na idea public should be informed. Rzetelna dana oraz mówienie prawdy owo cele komunikowania. Celem ma byc popularyzacja informacji o firmie (nie mediacja). Lee stworzyl lokalny przepis profesjonalny (Declaration of Principle) w którym podkreslal, ze PR opiera sie na otwartosci tudziez sluzy publicznemu dobru. Uwazal, iz gdyby zgodnosc z rzeczywistoscia o firmie jest w celu niej szkodliwa, to wypada owo przerobic. Aplikacja PR oceniany przy uzyciu porcja wycinków. Jego informacje prasowe poprzedni szczytem wiarygodnosci, podawal w nich – co nie bylo powszechna praktyka – kto je napisal natomiast w czyim imieniu. W swoim dzialaniu kierowal sie nie badaniami, jakkolwiek intuicja, która dwukrotnie go zawiodla – w przypadku promocji III Rzeszy a ZSRR. Podlug tego modelu zatrudnienie PR to przede wszystkim rozprzestrzenianie informacji. Dzien dzisiejszy stosowany w agencjach rzadowych, niektórych dzialaniach non-profit, w trakcie kampanii informacyjnych, informacjach kulturalnych.
    3. [URL=http://adpublica.pl]Agencja PR[/URL] Schemat dwukierunkowy asymetryczny[edytuj]
    Pojawienie sie tego modelu mozna zrzeszac sposród aktywnoscia rzadu amerykanskiego w czasie komunikowania w czasie A wojny swiatowej. Wewnatrz jego pioniera uwaza sie Waltera Lippmana (Public Opinion). W rok kalendarzowy po przed do dyskusji wlacza sie Edward Bernays ze swoja ksiazka Crystalizing Public Opinion. Uwazal, ze PR byc moze dopisywac dobru publicznemu, jezeli przekonuje sie ludzi az do tego, co a wlasciwie jest zgodne sposród ich interesem, tudziez organizacja zmienia sie spolem sposród wymaganiami publicznosci. Wykorzystanie ma polegac jeno na tym, iz zrzeszenie jest pokazywana przez uwypuklenie cech, które publicznosci w najwiekszym stopniu sie podobaja. ów schemat komunikacji podchwycili Hill i Knowlton. Zrzeszenie próbuje namówic odbiorców az do swoich celów, atoli izby sprawiac owo efektywnie, mamuska sie najpierw odgadnac ich potrzeby tudziez je dogodzic. W modelu tym duza wage przyklada sie do badan. W wiekszosci wypadków praktykowany przez doradców PR oraz przedsiebiorstwa.
    4. Wzorzec dwukierunkowy symetryczny[edytuj]
    Model zaklada podjecie wymiany informacji a opinii pomiedzy publicznoscia zas firma. W srodku pioniera tego podejscia uwaza sie Bernaysa. Na gruncie naukowym byli to Hunt a Grunig, pierwsi praktycy owo David Finn natomiast Harold Burson. Zgodnie z tego modelu specjalisci od czasu PR to mediatorzy, pracuja, izby przyblizyc publicznosci posada firmy oraz na odwrót. Sposób oceniajace maja analizowac, badz kazus przebiega spokojnie. Dzis stosowany w wielu przedsiebiorstwach rynku niekonkurencyjnego. Polega na wytworzeniu sytuacji typu WIN-WIN, w której obie strony moga dokonac swoje transakcje. Zgodnie z Hunta zas Gruniga jest to casus, która powinna dokonywac pomiaru styl dla rozwoju PR w przyszlosci. Autorzy zdawali sobie atoli sprawe z faktu, iz wzór ten jest w tej chwili nieczesto wykorzystywany.
    Mylenie PR z marketingiem[edytuj]

    Public relations czesto mylone jest sposród inna funkcja zarzadzania, jaka jest marketing. W wielu organizacjach zatrudnieni sa personel, którzy zajmuja sie za jednym zamachem public relations natomiast marketingiem bez wyraznego wyznaczenia róznic. W toku kiedy marketing jest zarzadzaniem relacjami posrodku firma i jej klientami, jednak PR jest szersza kategoria i odnosi sie do relacji pomiedzy firma tudziez jej interesariuszami kiedy np. personel firmy, inwestorzy, ludnosc lokalna, panowanie a samorzady czy massmedia. Glównym zalozeniem marketingu jest satysfakcja ludzkich potrzeb. Marketerzy dostarczaja produkty natomiast uslugi do konsumentów w celu wymiany ich na inne dobro. Klasycy marketingu kiedy Philip Kotler tudziez Gary Armstrong zwracali uwage na reklama jak czynnosci sluzace wybudowaniu odpowiedniej relacji z grupa docelowa, która ma dogadzac wymianie produktów, uslug, pomyslów tudziez innych rzeczy. Opowiesc marketingowa wyróznia sie tym, iz odbywa sie w niej obustronna wystepowanie wymienne czegos co w celu kazdej ze okolica posiada pewna atut. Celem marketingu jest satysfakcja potrzeb klientów po to by osiagnac ekonomiczne zalozenia firmy. Public relations nierzadko stosowane jest w charakterze przyrzad wspierajace reklama. Bo profesjonalni praktycy PR posiadaja wiedze na materia redagowania materialów prasowych, wspólpracy sposród dziennikarzami (media relations) natomiast implementacji strategii tudziez programów komunikacyjnych, dzialy marketingu czestokroc korzystaja ze wsparcia konsultantów PR. Public relations jest dlugofalowym budowaniem a utrzymywaniem dobrych relacji z wewnetrznym natomiast zewnetrznym otoczeniem firmy czy organizacji, pracownikami, inwestorami, organizacjami rzadowymi, liderami spolecznymi. W wielu firmach reklama a Public relations funkcjonuja w charakterze podzielne dzialy, które maja inne, jakkolwiek nakladajace sie tudziez komplementarne cele.

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  40. You will need collateral to get a condolisation loan.Have you tried dealing with the creditors on your own?There are many, many good books at your library or bookstores.One I like is Credit Repair for Dummies not for dummies at all very good.It will teach you how to negotiate, settle, reduce payments, even do the pay on delete the right way.It will make you a PRO af fixing your own credit.There is a non-profit organization that does this for you in case you are not a reader.National Foundation for Credit Councelling.NFCC.orgThey will help you at no cost.Go to the site and call the 800 number and make an appointment at a local office.If they put you on the DMP program (debt management program), the max cost is about $30 a month.But only if you can afford it remember they are non-profit.They will contact all your creditors and work with them.If bankruptcy is your only answer they will be honest with you and tell you.Good reviews call them angels from above.Bad reviews say its embarrassing since you have to take all your bills and show them to someone.One person said they even cut up all his credit cards right there.If you don’t like embarrassment do this yourself with the book this agency does not do anything that is not clearly stated in the books./

  41. The fact that you ask the question, and that so many pelpoe are even giving it credence enough to discuss how the debt ceiling affects us, shows how important it is to so many pelpoe.But bottom line, there’s a lot more than one issue on the table. The only reason we’re so concerned with the national debt right now is because the media is telling us to be concerned, but not telling us to be concerned about other things. Our debt is huge, but look at the large amount that’s public debt Don’t get me wrong We need to recude it before we hit a major crisis But we’ve just killed Osama bin Laden, we’ve seen two previously-stable middle eastern countries topple, and three more are on the way Russia and China are exploding their GDP, and their military spending shows it Natural disasters are hitting ridiculously fast right now This is a very turbulent time for the world, and perhaps we should start watching international events rather than just focusing on what Republicans think is a good way to tear down a presidency.References :

  42. Pay off the debt first. Interest rates on savings are pacattiehlly low. In the long run, you will save more money by paying off the debt and not spending it on interest fees. One way to get your debt under control is to focus on one card and pay it off. Then once it is paid off, take that money and increase another card’s payment by that amount until it is paid off. By paying off your debt, it will increase your credit rating and in the future you will get better interests rates on other loans, such as car and house. That can save you hundreds a month.References :

  43. I am actually fiinlg bankruptcy AND saving for baby. I know people think bankruptcy is SOOO bad but it’s not as terrible as people think and in my situation it’s the best thing. After my divorce I was left with ALL the debt that we accrued since EVERYTHING (credit cards, loans etc. were all in my name) Then not long after I was put in the hopital for kidney failure and had no insurance (that’s a nice little bill let me tell you what!! ) Bankruptcy is not cheap but it works for me AND allows me to save for me new baby! GOOD LUCK HUN! References :

  44. I had $12,00 and $8,000 credit cards at 29% , the banks reisad the rates from 8% because of universal default , this is despicable!. My attorney told me to send them a certified letter to not call me [by Federal Law they must stop]! This is a Federal law . . Then he suggested that I don’t pay for about 4 months at which time they’ll get someone to negotiate. I didn’t pay and I won’t so I save $300 a month. my credit score is low.. but so what! Call a free state Attorney or any Attorney!

  45. Sorry folks, we have been had, peed on, scammed and lied to.WallStreet btoliuas were rigged and a fraud, market manipulations,high freqency trading, flash orders, naked short selling by:Goldman, JPM, Cit, MorgStanley, Aig, stay away from this scum.The Fed, Comex, ETF’s, Govt data: frauds. Your labor devalued to Zero.Pull your money out, walk away from your mortgage and CC card debt,We can beat them at their own game, buy pure silver bullion,buy local mom and pop. Starve The Beast!

  46. Tong-gratulatiens!Parang gusto ko na ring magkaroon ng sinliarg domain. Hehe. Kaya lang e alam ko pa naman na nilalangaw pa rin ‘yung blog ko.Tuloy-tuloy lang City Lifestylin’! Continue the good stuff. I’ll always be your reader – your fan – kahit baduy akong pumorma at puro mga polo t-shirts lang ang meron sa cabinet ko.The best of wishes! Cheers!

  47. The manual drip needle detail design, restrained and refined. Polka Dot Jacquard process of delicate and lovely, elegant fashion, you inadvertently release more feminine enough!

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